Five-Minute Bitcoin Trades Equal Gambling, Says Expert

• Five-minute cryptocurrency trades are increasingly popular on Polymarket, other prediction markets
• Expert says those traders are more akin to gambling, not investing
• He warns those event contracts could harm crypto credibility

Polymarket traders are increasingly embracing ultra-short-term cryptocurrency trades, but at least one expert believe those traders are simply gambling in disguise.

Polymarket, which says it operates the largest prediction market in the world, offers yes/no contracts based on what Bitcoin’s price will be in five or 15 minutes. Traders like the quick resolution, but deVere Group CEO Nigel Green says those event contracts represent a departure from legitimate investing.

This isn’t investing. It’s high-speed speculation dressed up as opportunity,” he said in note out today. “Five-minute Bitcoin bets turn a serious asset into a short-term punt. The timeframe by definition alone removes any meaningful analysis from the equation.”

Polymarket also offers five-minute markets on several other major digital currencies, including Ether, Solana, and XRP, but the bulk of the prediction market’s volume in those derivatives is driven by Bitcoin — the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

In Timed Crypto Markets, Retail Traders Are Disadvantaged

There’s no denying both professional and retail traders are flocking to Polymarket’s five- and 15-minute crypto markets. In recent weeks, daily volume in those segments has topped $60 million compared to just $1 million in daily turnover for cryptocurrency event contracts measured in days, according to Dune Analytics data.

“Markets operating on minute-by-minute outcomes reward those with the fastest systems and the best information flow. Professional traders are built for that environment,” observes the deVere chief executive officer. “Most individuals are not, and they could end up on the wrong side of the trade more often than they expect.”

He adds that Bitcoin event contracts measured in minutes encourage retail traders to focus on short-term price action over fundamentals, which can lead to increasingly poor decision-making. Green also points out that ultra-short-term contracts on cryptocurrencies can lead to retail traders chasing losses while providing liquidity to professional traders that are winning.

Five-Minute Bets Could Distort Bitcoin

Prediction market critics consistently warn these platforms blur the lines between investing and betting, putting aggressive retail traders at risk. Green says there are potential risks to Bitcoin as well, particularly at a time when the asset is gaining more acceptance among institutional investors and global governments.

He says that five- or 15-minute yes/no contracts tied to Bitcoin price action fuels the notion that the asset is purely speculative, but that’s not the reality of how many professional investors approach it.

“There are always some who are drawn to speed and short-term outcomes. That’s nothing new. What matters is recognizing what you are doing,” he concludes. “There are always some who are drawn to speed and short-term outcomes. That’s nothing new. What matters is recognizing what you are doing. But it should not be confused with serious investing, and it shouldn’t replace a long-term strategy.”