NBA 2027 Champions – Who are the Leading Contenders?

The 81st season of the National Basketball Association (NBA) is now underway, with the Knicks (who are the defending champions) having gone 2-4 (.333) in their opening fixtures.

Although the Thunder won their opening four matches, their win probability has contracted by five percentage points since October 26th. This is due to a devastating leg injury suffered by Jalen Williams against the Clippers, and Oklahoma have since endured road defeats against Dallas and Houston.

The 76ers, who completed the high-profile trades of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James during the offseason, have gone 6-1 (.857) so far and retain a 100% win record on the road. Point guard Tyrese Maxey has starred for Philadelphia and is currently averaging 29.6 points-per-game (PPG).

The initial results have impacted the prediction markets significantly. The Knicks now have just a 7% win probability in the market, while the Spurs (who have gone 4-2 and won four successive games) have emerged as the new favorites. We’ll explore the market in more detail below, addressing the most recent movements and the trades that offer optimal value.

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Odds and Probability – How Has the Early NBA Winner Market Moved So Far? 

The rise of the 76ers shows just how sensitive prediction markets are to breaking news. The franchise was largely ignored by traders prior to their high-profile additions in July. Although their price has dropped back slightly since late July, they remain among the frontrunners on Polymarket.

After their difficult start, you can now buy “Yes” shares in the Knicks for just 7¢. They’ve already been between home and away by the 76ers, while Orlando also defeated them at Madison Square Garden on October 25th.

Other factors are also discouraging traders from backing the Knicks. Firstly, the franchise lacks the consistency or roster depth of either the Thunder or the Spurs, while they must compete in the more challenging Eastern field. 

It’s also historically difficult to win back-to-back NBA Championships. In fact, this has been achieved just 23 times in 80 campaigns (28.7%). So, the Knicks will also have the weight of history against them during their title defense. 

This has certainly impacted public betting trends in recent weeks. The sportsbook consensus also affords the Knicks a win probability of just 8.3% after the early season action. These factors have helped to drive the Knicks’ “Yes” price down by 46.15% since October 9th, potentially creating value for traders on Polymarket.

Both the Thunder and the Spurs have seen their own implied probability values decline since the market opened, potentially creating increased value for traders. They were the two most dominant franchises last season with respective regular season win rates of .780 and .756, while both sides retain incredible star quality.  

Oklahoma Odds – Do Oklahoma Offer Greater Value at Their Discounted Price?

“Oklahoma Thunder” | “Yes” at 13¢ | 13% Chance

The Thunder had a 40% win probability when the market opened on May 14th. This was when Oklahoma were still the favorites to win last season’s Championship, and prior to their dramatic 4-3 loss to the Spurs in the Western Conference final.

The Thunder’s implied probability has since fluctuated considerably, initially settling at 22% on July 25th before recently contracting further back to 13% as a result of various factors.

An initial decline followed NBA media day ahead of the preseason. This saw Thunder general manager Sam Presti highlight a number of offseason roster departures, including defensive anchor Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins. This has left Oklahoma slightly short on depth, as the franchise continues to prioritize its long-term financial flexibility.

This issue has been compounded by the injury to Jalen Williams. He remains the franchise’s clear number two option behind the 2024/25 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and will miss the remainder of the 2026/27 season.

The Thunder have since gone 1-2, with this sequence including successive road defeats at Dallas and Houston. Oklahoma’s defense was exposed in both matches, during which Williams’ absence was compounded by further injuries to Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren. Alex Caruso is now the team’s lone premier perimeter defender, and the Thunder will remain vulnerable for the foreseeable future.

However, Oklahoma have been the most consistent performers across the previous two seasons, recording respective win percentages of .829 and .780 in 2025 and 2026.

This sustained consistency, coupled with the team’s collective experience and the quality of clutch players like Gilgeous-Alexander, still makes the Thunder serious contenders. Their slightly discounted price of 13¢ therefore offers potential value, so consider buying now and selling should this exceed the 30¢-35¢ range during the regular season or into the playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs Odds – Did the Markets Overreact to a Poor NBA Finals Performance?

“San Antonio Spurs” | “Yes” at 23¢ | 23% Chance

The San Antonio Spurs were the heavy favorites to defeat the Knicks in last season’s NBA finals. However, they were undone by an uncharacteristically high number of turnovers and an increasingly passive offense as the series progressed. 

This saw their win probability for 2027 drop from a peak of 32% on June 1st to just 16%, although it has since recovered marginally and stabilized at 23%. It has increased by a single percentage point since NBA media day, with the Spurs now favored heavily ahead of the Thunder and the 76ers.

The initial mini-recovery was inspired by the NBA Draft, with the Spurs moving to provide high-quality cover for the incredible Victor Wembanyama and create a more aggressive frontcourt lineup. In addition to Jayden Quaintance, the franchise snapped up Tarris Reed Jr., Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Maliq Brown.

As for Wembanyama, he excelled throughout the last campaign, recording an incredible 3.1 blocks and 11.5 rebounds per game in the regular season alone.

He has started the new campaign in impressive form, too. He’s currently averaging 28.0 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, while he leads the way for blocks (4.2). Wembanyama has been particularly influential during the Spurs’ recent four-game winning sequence, during which he has averaged 32.7 PPG.

Overall, the Spurs offer incredible depth and consistency, while the current sportsbook consensus affords the franchise a 25% chance of winning the NBA finals this season.

Traders may have also overreacted to the poor performances of individuals like De’Aaron Fox in the 2026 finals. So, consider buying “Yes” at the current price of 23¢, as this has the potential to increase above 35¢ throughout the regular season.

New York Knicks Odds – Can They Continue Their Reputation as a Clutch Team?

“New York Knicks” | “Yes” at 7¢ | 7% Chance

We’ve already touched on the challenges facing the Knicks, from a relative lack of roster depth to the historical difficulty of winning back-to-back NBA titles.

The Knicks endured a challenging draft too, with neither Jack Kayil or Tyler Nickel likely to earn many minutes on court this season. Kayil will remain overseas during the 2026/27 campaign, while Nickel (the 47th overall draft pick) will split his playing time between the NBA and the G League.

New York have certainly struggled during their initial regular season games. The Knicks are the first NBA titleholders to lose their first three matches since the Dallas Mavericks in 2011/12. The side has also struggled with a high number of turnovers on-court, while their offense has yet to perform consistently. Their high-profile struggles against the 76ers have brought these issues into sharper focus, too.

However, the franchise has returned all of its truly elite starters: namely Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges. Brunson starred during the NBA finals and averaged 28.4 PPG in the postseason, highlighting his exceptional ability as a clutch player. He’s currently averaging 25.5 PPG in 2026/27.

As a collective, the Knicks also ranked second in last season’s NBA for clutch situations, outscoring their opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions in the final five minutes of matches.

Mike Brown’s men are clearly durable and highly competitive. So, they remain undervalued at a current price of just 7¢ (down from 13¢ just two weeks ago), despite their early-season form. Consider buying “Yes” shares now while the price is still significantly discounted, with a view to scaling your exit and potentially selling in increments as the franchise improves during the course of the season.

The Last Word – What About the 76ers and Their Odds?

Traders have rushed to back the 76ers after the addition of Brown and James. The value of Philadelphia’s “Yes” shares has increased to 11.6¢ since the beginning of the season, too. James’ arrival has been particularly impactful, but it’s worth noting that just one of his four career NBA titles has been won in the last decade.

The 76ers currently have a 12% win probability on Polymarket, which may be a little low given their impressive start to the new season. They also have a favorable strength of schedule (.468) through to the end of the regular season, with only Detroit thought to have an easier run of fixtures.

So, there may be some value to snapping up “Yes” shares in the 76ers now. You can then look to hold your position into the early playoff rounds.

When trading “Yes” on options like the Knicks, remember that you can scale your exit by selling your position in stages. Depending on how the price moves, this may enable you to bank an early profit, while letting the remainder of your capital ride.

With the season well underway, now is the ideal time to trade various outcomes. I certainly expect more volatile price movements in the coming weeks. Just remember to track your open positions daily, while also following the latest news and results as the regular season continues.

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