Upset! American Robert Prevost Named New Pope

Posted on: May 8, 2025, 01:46h. 

Last updated on: May 8, 2025, 02:14h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • US-born Cardinal Robert Prevost has been elected as the new leader of the Catholic Church in a surprise outcome to the Papal conclave
  • Prevost, who will be known as Pope Leo XIV, was not among the betting favorites heading into the conclave

Cardinal Robert Prevost of the United States has been named as the new Pope, becoming the first American to be elected as head of the Catholic Church.

Cardinal Robert Prevost, in front of the image of Mary Mother, leads the faithful in the recitation of the Holy Rosary for Pope Francis in front of St. Peter’s Basilica, in March. (Image: Shutterstock)

On the betting side of the Papal conclave, practically no one had their money on Prevost going into Thursday’s events.

The 133 cardinals charged with electing the new pontiff went through a morning session today without having resolved anything. Black smoke billowed from the chimney at the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, the sign the cardinals were still in conclave.

Then this afternoon, white smoke emerged at the Vatican, telling the world a decision had been reached.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin surged as betting favorite after white smoke appeared, with bettors going for the Vatican diplomat, seen as someone who walked the line between the progressive side of the church and the more conservative side.

Prevost Emerged Suddenly

Just after 1 pm EST, news leaked that the vote was an upset, with the American prevost to be named Pope. The prediction markets turned dramatically in his direction.

Kalshi had Prevost with a 1% chance going into the conclave.

John Ewing from BetMGM in Ontario said the odds had Prevost at +5000 to be the next Pope. Nineteen percent of bets (the most) were on Parolin, with 58% of money on Luis Antonio Tagle. Less than 1% of the handle at BetMGM was on Prevost to be named Pope.

BetMGM was one of the few sportsbooks in Ontario offering Pope election markets, while regulated sportsbooks weren’t offering the market in the US.

First American Pope in History

Prevost, 69, from Chicago, will be known as Pope Leo XIV. He spent much of his career as a missionary in South America and as a bishop in Peru.

News reporting has him as more on the progressive end of the spectrum and suggests he will build on reforms brought in by Pope Francis, who died on April 21.