How Are Betting Markets Shifting in the Election of a New Pope?

Posted on: May 6, 2025, 06:54h. 

Last updated on: May 7, 2025, 08:58h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • The College of Cardinals starts meeting in conclave tomorrow
  • Odds shifting in betting markets for new Pope 
  • Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy the betting favourite

Could we see an American pope for the first time? If you are following the betting markets, those odds are pretty long.

Betting markets are heating up as the conclave for electing a new Pope starts tomorrow. Image/Shutterstock.

Secret Election

The College of Cardinals starts meeting in conclave – the secret election to choose the next Pope – tomorrow in the 15th Century Sistine Chapel. 

The process involves 133 cardinals, all under the age of 80, who debate then vote for the candidate they prefer. A pope is only elected when a candidate receives a two-thirds majority.

We could see a new head of the Catholic Church within hours, or weeks.

A quick scan at the betting markets this morning shows some clear favorites.

Betting Markets for New Pope

You can’t bet on who the next Pope will be in the U.S., but in Canada, where you can, BetMGM says Pietro Parolin from Italy (Vatican’s secretary of state) is at +225, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle (“the Asian Pope Francis”) from the Philippines at +300, then Matteo Maria Zuppi, also from Italy, at +600.

Raymond Leo Burke is down with the shortest odds for any American Cardinal, at +3300, followed by Timothy Dolan at +5000 and Kevin Farrell, also at +5000.

According to BetMGM’s John Ewing:

Of note, Pietro Parolin opened as a +250 favorite. He has moved to +225 and 23.3% of bets (most) and 32.4% of money (most) is on Parolin to be the next Pope.”

How Do the Prediction Markets Look?

Said David Merry, a trader with BetVictor: “Pope betting has been popular in the UK but zero bets so far from Canada. Thirty different Cardinals have been backed so far. Peter Turkson is the most popular, who started at 10/1 and is now 11/2. We have a £20 stake limit so all small bets.”

Over at the prediction markets, it’s neck and neck this afternoon at Polymarket: Parolin with a 26% chance, on a volume of 1.19 million, with Tagle at 23% (volume of 1.4 million), and Zuppi at 10% (volume of 865,889).

At Kalshi it’s Parolin at 26%, Tagle at 22% and Zuppi at 10%.