Smoke Watch: Catholic Church Elects New Pope

Posted on: May 8, 2025, 12:06h. 

Last updated on: May 8, 2025, 01:48h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Cardinals at the Vatican have signaled that they’ve elected a new pope following the death of Pope Francis last month
  • Betting markets have identified Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary as being among the favorites

White smoke rose from the chimney of Vatican City’s Sistine Chapel on Thursday afternoon, meaning a new Pope has been elected.

White smoke coming from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican means cardinals have elected a new pope. (Image: Shutterstock)

A decision was made this afternoon as the 133 cardinals/electors reconvened after a morning session.

If the cardinals decided to go in the direction of a progressive Pope and wanted someone similar to Pope Francis, who died on April 21, they could have elected Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines or a candidate who walks the line between progressives and conservatives, like Cardinal and Vatican diplomat Pietro Parolin. 

If the church wants to shift more toward the center, then perhaps it’s someone like Cardinal Peter Erdo, the 72-year-old Hungarian who’s seen as a conservative in terms of theology, but who reportedly never clashed with the progressive Pope Francis, unlike traditionalists among the clerics. 

Polymarket, the cryptoprediction market, shows the chance that it is Parolin has risen dramatically since the white smoke announcement an hour ago — he is now at 63% (volume of $2,3 million), with Tagle at 25%.

There’s no betting on the Pope at any regulated sportsbooks in the US, and there are just a handful of licensed sportsbooks in Ontario offering markets, with BetVictor reporting “no interest.” But, in places like the UK, it’s been a different story.

Parolin the Betting Favorite

The Catholic Church itself seems to be OK with wagering, with limitations. According to the Catechism of the Catholic Church No. 2413:

Games of chance (card games, etc.) or wagers are not in themselves contrary to justice. They become morally unacceptable when they deprive someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others.”

Gambling on Papal politics was widespread during the Renaissance, as Romans bet on the naming of cardinals and papal reigns. Large sums were being wagered.

When it began to undermine the conclave, Vatican leadership responded with Cogit Nos, in 1591, with punishment of excommunication if a person gambled on the Papacy. That was overturned in 1918, and the floodgates on betting on Papal elections were opened. 

Line Movements

Notable line movement from Monday to Thursday at BetMGM was Parolin +225 to +250, Tagle +325 to +275, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa +700 to +500, according to a spokesperson there. Erdo was at +1100 as of Thursday morning.

BetMGM had “Any other not listed” at +350.

In the UK, David Merry, a trader with BetVictor, said prices on betting on a new Pope have been very stable, and betting continued to be popular there through this morning.

“Thirty bets in the last hour,” he said earlier today. “We’re trying to keep the market open as long as possible.”

Progressive or Conservative Pope?

In 1268 the conclave to select Pope Clement IV’s successor lasted three years — the longest in the history of the Catholic Church. Over the past 100 years, successive conclaves have taken a maximum of three days.

The church has been divided recently between the more orthodox segment and the progressives. As such, a safer bet in this climate might be someone in the middle.