UK Gambling Stocks Plunge After Tax Hikes, Analysts See Silver Lining

• UK imposes major gambling tax hikes hitting online casinos hardest
• Industry leaders warn of job losses and rising illegal market risks
• Analysts predict consolidation as larger operators absorb increased costs

Shares in UK gambling companies fell sharply after British Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a 40% tax on online casino gaming Wednesday – almost double the current 21%.

Meanwhile, online sports betting will be taxed at 25%, up from the current rate of 15%. Online spread betting, pool bets, and horse racing bets were left untouched by the chancellor’s autumn budget, as was brick-and-mortar sports betting.

The changes are expected to raise an extra £1.1 billion (US$1.5 billion) a year for UK coffers by 2029-30.

“Some parts of the gambling industry, such as racecourses and bingo halls, make a cultural contribution to our country,” Reeves said. “This is not the case, though, for online slots and other remote gaming, which can quickly drain the bank balances of vulnerable people after just a few clicks of a button on a phone.”

Evoke Hit Hard

Evoke, which owns 888 and the William Hill brand in the UK, was hit hardest. Its shares fell 18% by close of trading Wednesday and then a further 10% Thursday before rallying slightly.

The company’s CEO, Per Widerstrom, called the Reeves budget “ill-thought-through, counter-productive, and highly damaging.”

“It is clear these changes will significantly harm businesses, employees, and customers,” he said.

“We will begin immediately on executing mitigation plans, which involve a significant reduction in investment into the UK and, very regrettably, the likely need for thousands of jobs to be cut up and down the country,” Widerstrom added.

Kevin Harrington, Flutter’s UK and Ireland CEO, called the tax increases “a very disappointing outcome [that] will have a significant adverse impact on our industry.

The chancellor rightly wants to address harm, but these changes will hand a big win to illegal, unlicensed gambling operators who will become more competitive overnight,” he said. “These black-market operators don’t pay tax and don’t invest in safer gambling.”

Flutter, which owns FanDuel, Paddy Power, Betfair, and PokerStars, has said it expects the changes to cost the company around £650 million (US$860 million) over the next two years.

Analysts Bullish

However, some analysts struck a more bullish tone on the UK gambling sector, arguing that the new tax regime could trigger a wave of consolidation as larger operators snap up smaller rivals unable to absorb the higher costs. The big hitters are also likely to capture greater market share as rivals are forced to exit the UK.

Deutsche Bank described Reeves’ budget as “a clearing event which improves the near-term outlook of the UK gambling sector.” UBS and Jefferies also advised buying UK gambling stock.