MEMX Wants to Offer Event Contracts on Company Earnings, Other Indicators

Key Points

  • The exchange operator filed a proposed rule change with the SEC to offer event contracts on select companies’ key performance indicators
  • The derivatives will be known as “Equities Based Exchange Prediction Contracts”
  • It’s similar to a plan unveiled by Cboe Global Markets last month

Exchange operator MEMX filed a proposed rule change with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that, if approved, would allow the company to offer event contracts on corporate earnings reports and other key performance indicators of publicly traded companies.

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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. MEMX wants to offer event contracts on corporate earnings and other performance indicators. (Image: Getty Images)

In a late Tuesday filing with the SEC, the financial services company proposed amending a rule that will allow it to offer “Equities Based Exchange Prediction Contracts” (EPCs) — prediction market-style derivatives on specific corporate metrics.

“MEMX’s EPCs are event contracts on publicly traded companies designed to provide investors with targeted exposure to objective, quantifiable measures of a company’s financial performance, including earnings, revenue, sales and other key issuer-specific metrics,” according to a statement issued by the New York-based company.

If the EPCs are approved, MEMX will offer the yes/no derivatives to traders through Interactive Brokers, which is established in the realm of non-sports event contracts. The plan is to bring the contracts to market in “early 2027.”

More Details on the MEMX EPCs

Traders accessing the MEMX yes/no contracts will transact at prices ranging from a penny to 99 cents – a methodology similar to what’s seen on traditional prediction markets.

“Because the paired bids for the yes/no contract must sum to the $1 exercise settlement amount, execution prices directly reflect the market’s relative valuation of the two possible outcomes,” adds MEMX. “This gives investors unique ways to access price discovery, financial exposure, and hedging opportunities for the most watched publicly traded companies.”

Privately held MEMX notes the options will be available on the top 25 U.S. stocks as measured by market capitalization. That group includes Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), among others.

Like other financial services companies venturing into the prediction market space, MEMX is steering clear of controversial sports event contracts, but its EPC menu could ultimately prove robust because in addition to earnings and revenue, the “other” category of performance indicators is expansive. In a hypothetical example, MEMX EPCs on a future Apple earnings report could include not only top and bottom line derivatives, but also contracts on iPhone shipments or wearable technology sales.

More Exchanges Examining the Idea

News MEMX’s proposed rule change arrives about six weeks after Cboe Global Markets (BATS: CBOE) sought permission to list event contracts company earnings, other indicators and economic data. Cboe wants to offer binary options on 100 key performance metrics linked to 23 well-known listed companies.

Within the professional trading community and perhaps among some savvy retail market participants, there could be strong appetite for the event contracts Cboe and MEMX want to bring to market. Historically, market participants’, particularly retail, only choices for playing a company’s earnings have been to hold shares or options into that report, essentially making de facto bets on top and bottom line results and forward-looking guidance.

The event contracts proposed by Cboe and MEMX bring more nuance to the equation and potentially more opportunity.

Todd Shriber
Todd Shriber Financial Reporter

Todd Shriber is a senior news reporter covering gaming financials, casino business, stocks, and mergers and acquisitions for Casino.org.

Todd got his start in financial markets as a reporter with Bloomberg News. Later, he became a trader at a Southern California-based long/short hedge fund, where he specialized in the trading sector and international ETFs leading up to and during the financial crisis. He joined Casino.org in 2019.

Currently, Todd analyzes, researches, and writes on ETFs for various web-based publications and financial services firms. Shriber has been featured and quoted in Barron's, CNBC.com, and The Wall Street Journal. His work can also be found on Benzinga, ETF Daily News, ETF Trends, MarketWatch, Fox Business, and Nasdaq.com.

He currently resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golf and taking his black lab to the dog park. He's also an avid sports fan and likes to wager on college football and the NBA. You can also find him at the three-card poker and roulette table, even though he knows better.

Contact Todd at todd.shriber@casino.org.

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