Big Brother Season 28 Odds: Who Are The Favorites?

Big Brother is a global phenomenon that dates back to 1999. The twenty-eighth (yes, you read that right) season of the US version is well underway, having premiered on CBS on July 9.

With a total trading volume of just over $129,000, it’s not one of Polymarket’s biggest prediction markets. 

However, there is considerable value to be found in the Big Brother winner market. Yash Patel has emerged as the new favorite in recent weeks, although there’s little to separate him from Rick Devens, Barrett Pfeiffer, and Dee Valladares in the minds of traders.

We’ve now seen nine housemates leave, after Haley Thogmartin’s surprise elimination on day 53 and the recent eviction of La Trice Verrett. This season’s theme is time travel, too, so I’ve looked into the future to see who could be the best value picks among the remaining contenders. Here’s what I found!

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Big Brother Season 28 Winner Prediction Markets

It’s been a busy start to Big Brother 28. The housemates competing for the $750,000 prize money this year include a drag queen, MMA fighter, rocket scientist, and pickleball coach. 

The “Power of Veto”, nominations, and aforementioned evictions add to the entertainment, along with the classic “BB Time Capsule”. “Bribe Power” has also been introduced to add another layer of intrigue and drama!

It’s not just the winner that you can buy and sell contracts on at Polymarket, either. These are some of the options for traders related to this reality show giant:

• Big Brother Season 28 Winner
• Big Brother Season 28: 2nd Place
• Who will be evicted?
• What will be said during the episode?

Who Are the Key Contenders?

Former favorite Dee Valladares has enjoyed another highly volatile week. Her price has soared to 35¢ on August 31st, but has since slumped to 17¢ in the face of Yash Patel’s surge and week eight “Power of Veto” win.

Patel, who recently formed an uneasy alliance with Valladares, is now the narrow favorite with a win probability of 19%. Financial analyst Patel had just a 3.8% chance of winning on July 27th, but he has managed to build significant momentum in the subsequent six weeks.

Both Devens and Pfeiffer remain competitive, too, with respective win probabilities of 17% and 16% at the time of writing.

But which contenders offer optimal value, and are there any outsiders who could yet win the crown in 2026?

Yash Patel Odds – The Momentum Pick and Current Favorite

Yash Patel | Yes 22.7¢ | 19% Chance

Patel’s momentum has built steadily since the end of July. Having survived an early betrayal by Valladares in the first week, he has become an increasingly strategic player and developed a position of genuine strength in the house.

Patel is undoubtedly a shrewd operator, biding his time while Valladares and fellow reality TV veteran Devens dominated the early narratives. His rise was confirmed in week eight, when Patel won the critical Power of Veto to secure his own safety and put Devens on the chopping block instead.

Alongside Pfeiffer, Patel is now also part of a strong counter-alliance to powerhouse icons including Valladares and Devens. This brought his short alliance with Valladares to an end, establishing Yash an influential and increasingly independent player.

If you snapped up “Yes” shares in Patel at the former price of 3.8¢, selling now would yield a huge return of 497.37%. This is certainly preferable to holding your existing position. Buying now at 22.7¢ can also unlock value if Patel continues to leverage his strength and influence in the house, but this strategy introduces high levels of risk and potential liquidity traps.

Dee Valladares Odds – A Former Favorite With a Volatile Price

Dee Valladares | Yes 17¢ | 15% Chance

Dee is no stranger to reality TV. The Cuban personality appeared in Survivor seasons 45 and 50. After producers teased fans with a mystery replacement for Rachel Reilly, Valladares was revealed during the “Big Brother: Unlocked” spinoff show on July 10. 

Her odds on Polymarket were 49% three days later, but following the initial hype, her probability dropped to a low of 17% on July 20th. She now has just a 15% win probability, having received her first eviction nomination in week six and faced increased targeting from her fellow housemates.

With a reality TV win already under her belt, Valladares is correctly seen as a threat by her rivals. Her aforementioned alliance with Yash has ended abruptly, too, making icons like Valladares and Devens increasingly vulnerable against a larger, outside group.

However, these factors are potentially causing the 29-year-old to be undervalued in the winner market. She certainly has the experience to deal with an increasingly chaotic Big Brother house, while her profile may stand her in good stead in the eyes of the public. Her previous price peak of around 49¢ reveals a high potential upside, too, so consider buying “Yes” at the discounted price of 17¢.

Rick Devens Market – An Steady Contender With Huge Influence and Power in the House

Rick Devens | Yes 17¢ | 17% Chance

News anchor Devens is another reality show veteran. The Survivor 50 contestant has already won the coveted “Diamond Power of Veto”, and his appearance on BB28 is a major factor behind the show’s impressive ratings. 

Devens’ alliance with Valladares has been one of the main talking points of the opening weeks. The duo has regularly dominated episodes, while both seemingly have producers eating out of the palm of their hands. However, Devens is also managing to maintain alliances with other housemates. His Power of Veto has afforded him a commanding position within the house.

He was also part of the “BB Bribe” twist in week seven, securing future protection from nomination should Yash win HOH again.

It’s therefore no surprise that Devens has gradually emerged as a leading favorite on Polymarket, with his price having increased from a modest 4.5¢ when the market opened to 17¢ at the time of writing. If you bought in at the initial price, there’s huge value in selling now and banking a sizable profit of 277.78%.

The anchor of WGXA Morning News in Macon currently has an 17% chance of winning, so there’s also value in buying “Yes” shares now. This may create future opportunities to sell or potentially hold until the market is settled, especially as Devens has only been nominated once (in week eight).

Drew Campbell BB Odds – A Young Housemate Who’s Reality TV-Savvy

Drew Campbell | Yes 10.8¢ | 9% Chance

It’s always worth keeping tabs on the youngest housemate. This year’s title goes to dental assistant Drew. The 22-year-old is also another housemate with reality TV experience. 

Although this was on the inaugural season of MrBeast’s “Beast Games”, it will stand him in good stead and makes him a savvy contender that his housemates should be wary of.

Certainly, Drew hasn’t been afraid to cause trouble in the house. Many have noticed his questionable strategy, as he bids to turn others against each other for his own benefit. 

This has impacted his odds directly, with his win probability falling to 9% at the time of writing (having opened at 46% on July 9th). However, viewers enjoy watching villainous or Machiavellian housemates for a period, so there may be some value in buying discounted “Yes” shares at 10.8¢ before selling a little later in the season.

Barrett Pfeiffer – A Survivor With a High Potential Upside

Barrett Pfeiffer | Yes 17¢ | 16% Chance

It’s hard to get behind someone who describes themselves as “giggly, charming, and spicy”. However, the Jumbotron engineer is now firmly among the frontrunners, with his win probability having more than doubled from 7.4% to 16% since August 28th.

This surge has followed Barrett securing the Head of House title for week nine. This grants him immunity for the week and guarantees him a spot in the final stages of the game. His opportunistic alliance with Patel has also triggered a power shift in the house, with Pfeiffer turning his back on Devens and Valladares and becoming a central player in the house.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in Pfeiffer at his previous price of 10.8¢. Selling this position now would yield a profit of 57.41%, which represents an impressive return in just seven days. Buying now may also offer longer-term value, with Pfeiffer increasingly likely to go deep in the competition.

Pfeiffer also has an existing following online, of course, with the 27-year-old hosting the “Our Reality” podcast. This regularly discusses Big Brother, and means that he’s not unfamiliar to viewers. He’s particularly popular among younger demographics, too.

Other Housemates to Consider

Kamu was a prominent housemate who had been busy in the opening weeks. He strongly confronted Jason over secret veto deals, and also failed to use his own veto to save Chuk Anyanwu and Haley Thogmartin from nomination in week five.

His exit in week six significantly altered the house dynamics, initially strengthening the position of Valladares and Devens. It also helped Yash to take center stage in week seven and laid the foundation for his recent surge.

In terms of alternative housemates, Angela Murray is one I’d suggest following closely. While she may not win, the Big Brother vet could play a key role in deciding who does, while her current price of 22.3¢ (up from 6.9¢ two weeks ago) also offers value if you sell now or she continues to navigate the house smartly in the coming weeks.

Previous moments from the real estate agent include a verbal attack on Matt Hardeman and a ridiculous reaction to a charcuterie board. Her 16.4% win probability has nearly trebled since August 21st, while it may continue to rise as the season progresses.

Who Will Be Evicted from Big Brother Next?

Ashley Trail, Rome Seymour, Jason De Puy, Lyric Medeiros, Chuk Anyanwu, Kamu Kirk, Mallory Aurichio, Haley Thogmartin, and La Trice Verrett have all bitten the bullet and been evicted from the Big Brother house in 2026. The latter exited on day 59 following a narrow 4-2 vote.

Polymarket offers weekly odds on the next elimination. So, keep a close eye on the nomination process and other house antics to forecast who could be given the boot next, as this will have a huge impact on your trading strategies.

The Last Word – How to Keep Track of Big Brother 28

You can keep up to date with all the goings-on at the famous house on CBS and Paramount+, with main episodes are broadcast every Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday. 

It’s on Sundays that viewers will enjoy the all-important HOH competition and nomination ceremony. Live evictions will take place every Thursday, while “Big Brother: Unlocked airs every Friday”. I’d recommend that you watch the action regularly, as this will enable you to make the most informed trades possible. 

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