Big Brother Season 28 Odds: Who Are The Favorites?

Big Brother is a global phenomenon that dates back to 1999. The twenty-eighth (yes, you read that right) season of the US version is now approaching his thrilling finale, having premiered on CBS on July 9.

With a total trading volume of just over $213,200, it’s not one of Polymarket’s biggest prediction markets. However, it has seen significant trading volumes in the previous week, especially after a dramatic final four eviction and the removal of frontrunner Dee Valladares.

Just three housemates now remain in contention for the $750,000 grand prize, ahead of the October 1st finale. These include Rick Devens and Drew Campbell, who we’ve been tracking on Polymarket throughout, and outside contender Taylor Brown.

Interestingly, this season’s theme is time travel, so I’ve looked into the near-future to identify the best value picks ahead of the finale!

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Who Are the Key Contenders?

The eviction of Melody Morris on Day 77 created the final four, and it was no surprise to see Valladares, Devens, or Campbell reach this stage. However, Valladares was removed from the house just three days later, after an emotional Drew used the power of veto to save himself and eliminate one of his closest allies.

Interestingly, this has helped to establish Campbell as the second favorite ahead of the finale. His “Yes” shares were priced at just 14.9¢ on September 18th, but they since increased by 137.58% to 35.4¢ in a little over a week. He now has a win probability of 35%, compared to 50% for perennial contender Devens.

The latter has enjoyed a sizable price increase as the competition has progressed. You could buy “Yes” shares in Devens for as little as 4.5¢ when the market opened, despite his status as a reality TV show powerhouse. However, this price has now peaked at 50.8¢, creating a significant hike of 1,028.89%.

Taylor Brown is the outsider, with a win probability of 17%. However, this is up from 4.3% on September 4th. Brown has also survived being eliminated on five separate occasions, while her two rivals in the final have faced eviction just five times between them. This year’s winner will also be determined by a jury of evicted housemates, and she lacks the broad popularity of both Drew and Rick.

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Rick Devens Market – A Steady Contender Who’s Now the Frontunner

Rick Devens | Yes 50.8¢ | 50% Chance

News anchor Devens is another reality show veteran. The Survivor 50 contestant has already won the coveted “Diamond Power of Veto”, and his appearance on BB28 is a major factor behind the show’s impressive ratings. 

Devens’ alliance with Valladares has been one of the main talking points of the season so far. The duo has regularly dominated episodes, while both seemingly have producers eating out of the palm of their hands. However, Devens has also managed to maintain alliances with other housemates.

This is key, as it has helped him to build positive relationships with the potential jury members who will ultimately decide his fate.

He was also part of the “BB Bribe” twist in week seven, securing future protection from nomination should Yash win HOH again. Although he initially faced eviction in Week 10, he won the “BB Block Buster Competition” to showcase his competitive edge and avoid the final vote. He played a key role in eliminating Patel and Pfeiffer and securing his own place in the house, too.

It’s therefore no surprise that Devens has gradually emerged as a leading favorite on Polymarket, with his price having increased from a modest 4.5¢ when the market opened to the current benchmark of 50.8¢. If you bought in at the initial price, there’s huge value in selling now and banking a sizable profit of 1,028.89%.

Even if you followed my recommendation and bought “Yes” shares in Devens at 22.1¢, selling now would yield a healthy return of 129.86% in less than a week. This is highly recommended, as holding until settlement incurs significant risk with at least one more eviction scheduled for the finale.

Similarly, I’d recommend against buying now. This unlocks a much lower upside if your goal is to flip and profit prior to resolution.

Drew Campbell BB Odds – A Strong Contender – Should You Buy Now?

Drew Campbell | Yes 35.4¢ | 35% Chance

Since the beginning, Drew hasn’t been afraid to cause trouble in the house. Although this may seem a questionable strategy, his youth and energy combined to make him a popular housemate. He has also survived eviction on three occasions, thanks in part to his resilience and ability to think strategically.

Of course, he’s not a reality TV novice. Despite being the youngest housemate at just 22, Campbell appeared on the inaugural season of MrBeast’s “Beast Games”, and he’s displayed experience beyond his years in the house so far.

Drew has also come into his own in the last three weeks. For example, he outlasted Yash in the 13-hour Pressure Cooker endurance competition, with this resulting in a veto that compelled Patel to nominate his close ally Taylor Brown. He also retained a strong alliance with former Head of Household Melody Morris, while maintaining relatively close relationship with icons Valladares and Devens.

He has timed his run to the final superbly and is now the second favorite, and his price trajectory reflects this.

I recommended that you snap up “Yes” shares in Campbell when he was priced at 9.8¢ on September 13th. The value of this position has increased by 261.22% to 35.4¢ in just 13 days, creating the optimal window for a profitable exit. Sure, you can hold until settlement, but this also introduces much higher risk and lower levels of liquidity.

These factors may also deter you from buying now. Although it’s possible for volatility to drive up Campbell’s price to the 50¢ benchmark prior to the finale, this rate of return isn’t enough to justify the risk.

Taylor Brown Odds – An Underdog With a High Potential Upside

Taylor Brown | Yes 17.1¢ | 17% Chance

Taylor Brown has surprised many viewers by reaching the final three. The 27-year-old school counselor from Florida has certainly been a slow-burner in the house, despite surviving three evictions in the first eight weeks and five overall.

Her keen survival instinct is to be admired. She also outlasted her close ally and former favorite Yash Patel, with her relatively low-key approach potentially causing her to be underestimated by fellow housemates.

The challenge for Brown is her relative lack of popularity in the house. We know six of the housemates that will form the jury during the finale, with the seventh set to be confirmed on October 1st. The list includes LaTrice “Lala” Verrett, Melody Morris and Angela Murray, who all clashed with Brown during the season.

This has helped to cap Taylor’s win probability at 17% at the time of writing. You can buy “Yes” shares in the housemate at 17.1¢, which may offer value given that Taylor will have the chance to cement her place in the final two when she squares off against Devens in the last stage of the three-part HoH competition. Even if Devens wins, he may opt to evict Barrett in the belief that he offers a much greater threat.

However, Taylor’s “Yes” shares are already up by 297.67% from just 4.3¢ on September 4th. This offers a sizable ROI if you bought in at the lower price, and I’d recommend that you sell this position now (liquidity permitting).

The Last Word – How to Keep Track of the Big Brother 28 Finale

The three-part HoH competition will conclude at the beginning of the October 1st finale. The final juror will also be confirmed at this time, although the HoH contest victor will have the power the evict this individual if they so choose.

You can follow the final week’s action on CBS and Paramount+, with two episodes remaining on Sunday, September 27th and Thursday, October 1st. The latter will broadcast the 90-minute finale live, which will see the winner crowned and resolve the market.

You may be tempted to trade price movements up until resolution, but the influential HoH contest wont conclude until the finale. At this stage, the market may be gripped by low liquidity, making it hard to flip existing positions profitably.

However you choose to trade in the final week, I recommend that you watch the action as it unfolds. Aim to sell profitable positions while enough liquidity remains, and avoid buying “Yes” shares now in the heavy favorite Devens.

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