Big Brother Season 28 Odds: Who Are The Favorites?

Big Brother is a global phenomenon that dates back to 1999. The twenty-eighth (yes, you read that right) season of the US version is well underway, having premiered on CBS on July 9.

With a total trading volume of just over $144,000, it’s not one of Polymarket’s biggest prediction markets. 

However, there is considerable value to be found in the Big Brother winner market. Yash Patel has emerged as the new favorite in recent weeks, although there’s little to separate him from Rick Devens, and Dee Valladares in the minds of traders.

We’ve now seen 10 housemates leave, after Angela Murray became the first icon to be evicted on Day 66. This season’s theme is time travel, too, so I’ve looked into the future to see who could be the best value picks among the remaining contenders. Here’s what I found!

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Big Brother Season 28 Winner Prediction Markets

It’s been a busy start to Big Brother 28. The housemates competing for the $750,000 prize money this year include a drag queen, MMA fighter, rocket scientist, and pickleball coach. 

The “Power of Veto”, nominations, and aforementioned evictions add to the entertainment, along with the classic “BB Time Capsule”. “Bribe Power” has also been introduced to add another layer of intrigue and drama!

It’s not just the winner that you can buy and sell contracts on at Polymarket, either. These are some of the options for traders related to this reality show giant:

• Big Brother Season 28 Winner
• Big Brother Season 28: 2nd Place
• Who will be evicted?
• What will be said during the episode?

Who Are the Key Contenders?

Former favorite Dee Valladares has enjoyed another highly volatile week. Her price has soared to 35¢ on August 31st, but subsequently slumped to 17¢ in the face of Yash Patel’s surge and week eight “Power of Veto” win. It has now rebounded to 24¢ after she survived eviction in Week 10.

Patel, who recently formed an uneasy alliance with Valladares, is now the narrow favorite with a win probability of 26%. Financial analyst Patel had just a 3.8% chance of winning on July 27th, but he has managed to build significant momentum in the subsequent six weeks. His “Yes” price has increased by 584.21% in just six weeks, too.

Icon Devens remains competitive, too, with his current win probability of 21% up from 17% on September 4th.

But which contenders offer optimal value, and are there any outsiders who could yet win the crown in 2026?

Yash Patel Odds – The Momentum Pick and Current Favorite

Yash Patel | Yes 26¢ | 26% Chance

Patel’s momentum has built steadily since the end of July. Having survived an early betrayal by Valladares in the first week, he has become an increasingly strategic player and developed a position of genuine strength in the house.

Patel is undoubtedly a shrewd operator, biding his time while Valladares and fellow reality TV veteran Devens dominated the early narratives. His rise was confirmed in week eight, when Patel won the critical Power of Veto to secure his own safety and put Devens on the chopping block instead.

Alongside Pfeiffer, Patel was also part of a strong counter-alliance to powerhouse icons including Valladares and Devens. This brought his short alliance with Valladares to an end, establishing Yash an influential and increasingly independent player. He has also secured Head of House for Week 10, securing his place in the final six.

However, the alliance has begun to turn against Patel, although Pfieffer rejected the opportunity to nominate him and instead targeted the icons.

As we’ve touched on, if you snapped up “Yes” shares in Patel at the former price of 3.6¢, selling now would yield a huge return of 584.21%. This is certainly preferable to holding your existing position. Buying now at 26¢ can also unlock value if Patel continues to leverage his strength and influence in the house, but this strategy introduces high levels of risk and potential liquidity traps.

Dee Valladares Odds – A Former Favorite With a Volatile Price

Dee Valladares | Yes 24¢ | 23% Chance

Dee is no stranger to reality TV. The Cuban personality appeared in Survivor seasons 45 and 50. After producers teased fans with a mystery replacement for Rachel Reilly, Valladares was revealed during the “Big Brother: Unlocked” spinoff show on July 10. 

Her odds on Polymarket were 49% three days later, but following the initial hype, her probability dropped to a low of 17% on July 20th. She now has a 23% win probability, with this increasing from just 15% only one week ago.

With a reality TV win already under her belt, Valladares is correctly seen as a threat by her rivals. Her aforementioned alliance with Yash has ended abruptly, too, making icons like Valladares and Devens increasingly vulnerable against a larger, outside group. To this end, Valladares only narrowly survived eviction in week 10, as fellow icon Murray was eliminated instead.

However, these factors are potentially causing the 29-year-old to be undervalued in the winner market. She certainly has the experience to deal with an increasingly chaotic Big Brother house, while her profile may stand her in good stead in the eyes of the public. Her previous price peak of around 49¢ reveals a high potential upside, too, so consider buying “Yes” even at the current benchmark of 24¢.

Rick Devens Market – An Steady Contender With Huge Influence and Power in the House

Rick Devens | Yes 22.1¢ | 21% Chance

News anchor Devens is another reality show veteran. The Survivor 50 contestant has already won the coveted “Diamond Power of Veto”, and his appearance on BB28 is a major factor behind the show’s impressive ratings. 

Devens’ alliance with Valladares has been one of the main talking points of the season so far. The duo has regularly dominated episodes, while both seemingly have producers eating out of the palm of their hands. However, Devens is also managing to maintain alliances with other housemates. His Power of Veto has afforded him a commanding position within the house, too.

He was also part of the “BB Bribe” twist in week seven, securing future protection from nomination should Yash win HOH again. Although he initially faced eviction in Week 10, he won the “BB Block Buster Competition” to showcase his competitive edge and avoid the final vote.

It’s therefore no surprise that Devens has gradually emerged as a leading favorite on Polymarket, with his price having increased from a modest 4.5¢ when the market opened to 22.1¢ at the time of writing. If you bought in at the initial price, there’s huge value in selling now and banking a sizable profit of 391.11%%.

The anchor of WGXA Morning News in Macon currently has an 21% chance of winning, so there’s also value in buying “Yes” shares now. This may create future opportunities to sell or potentially hold until the market is settled, especially as Devens has only been nominated twice overall. Just note that this currently categorized as a negative EV pick.

Drew Campbell BB Odds – A Young Housemate Who’s Reality TV-Savvy

Drew Campbell | Yes 9.8¢ | 9% Chance

It’s always worth keeping tabs on the youngest housemate. This year’s title goes to dental assistant Drew. The 22-year-old is also another housemate with reality TV experience. 

Although this was on the inaugural season of MrBeast’s “Beast Games”, it will stand him in good stead and makes him a savvy contender that his housemates should be wary of.

Certainly, Drew hasn’t been afraid to cause trouble in the house. Many have noticed his questionable strategy, as he bids to turn others against each other for his own benefit. 

This has impacted his odds directly, with his win probability falling to 9% at the time of writing (having opened at 46% on July 9th). However, viewers enjoy watching villainous or Machiavellian housemates for a period, so there may be some value in buying discounted “Yes” shares at 9.8¢ before selling a little later in the season.

Barrett Pfeiffer – A Survivor With a High Potential Upside

Barrett Pfeiffer | Yes 7¢ | 6% Chance

It’s hard to get behind someone who describes themselves as “giggly, charming, and spicy”. Pfeiffer’s price and win probability have also proved highly volatile of late. His odds more than doubled from 7.4% to 16% in the week ending September 4th, but he’s now afforded just a 6% chance of winning.

This has followed another turbulent week for Pfeiffer. First, he betrayed the emerging Crossovers alliance, which had sought to target de facto leader Patel. His decision to nominate veteran icons Murray, Valladares, and Devens together also partially revealed the existence of the secret alliance, which he later confirmed during conversations with Mallory Aurichio and Melody Morris.

So, he’s now vulnerable and has enemies on both sides of the house fence, which is why his win probability has contracted by 62.5% in just seven days.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in Pfeiffer at his previous price of 10.8¢. If you sold this position last week, you would have banked a profit of 57.41% in just seven days. If you retain these shares, however, continue to hold in anticipation that the housemate’s price will rise again in the coming weeks.

Buying now may also offer longer-term value, with Pfeiffer still expected to go deeper in the competition.

Pfeiffer also has an existing following online, of course, with the 27-year-old hosting the “Our Reality” podcast. This regularly discusses Big Brother, and means that he’s not unfamiliar to viewers. He’s particularly popular among younger demographics, too.

Other Housemates to Consider

Kamu was a prominent housemate who had been busy in the opening weeks. He strongly confronted Jason over secret veto deals, and also failed to use his own veto to save Chuk Anyanwu and Haley Thogmartin from nomination in week five.

His exit in week six significantly altered the house dynamics, initially strengthening the position of Valladares and Devens. It also helped Yash to take center stage in week seven and laid the foundation for his recent surge.

In terms of alternative housemates, Taylor Brown is one to watch. The 27-year-old school counselor from Florida has been a slow-burner in the house, despite surviving three nominations in the first eight weeks. She has also formed an incredibly close alliance with Patel, with the pairing conspiring to save Dee Valladares and eliminate Angela Murray in the most eviction.

Taylor can be backed to win at 10.1¢, up from just 4.3¢ on September 4th. With ally Yash established as the current Head of Household, her price could spike even further in the next two weeks.

Who Will Be Evicted from Big Brother Next?

Ashley Trail, Rome Seymour, Jason De Puy, Lyric Medeiros, Chuk Anyanwu, Kamu Kirk, Mallory Aurichio, Haley Thogmartin, La Trice Verrett, and Angela Murray have all bitten the bullet and been evicted from the Big Brother house in 2026. The latter exited on day 66 following a narrow 3-2 vote.

Polymarket offers weekly odds on the next elimination. So, keep a close eye on the nomination process and other house antics to forecast who could be given the boot next, as this will have a huge impact on your trading strategies.

The Last Word – How to Keep Track of Big Brother 28

You can keep up to date with all the goings-on at the famous house on CBS and Paramount+, with main episodes are broadcast every Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday. 

It’s on Sundays that viewers will enjoy the all-important HOH competition and nomination ceremony. Live evictions will take place every Thursday, while “Big Brother: Unlocked airs every Friday”. I’d recommend that you watch the action regularly, as this will enable you to make the most informed trades possible. 

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