Carney-Led Liberals Vault Ahead of Poilievre’s Conservatives in Canadian Election Betting

Posted on: March 30, 2025, 12:08h. 

Last updated on: March 30, 2025, 07:02h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

• Trump tariffs? Prediction markets show Liberals far ahead
• CBC story this morning highlights disgruntlement in Conservative party camp
• Sportsbook odds lean in favour of the Liberals

If the prediction markets are any indication this morning, the Mark Carney-led Liberals, particularly after a phone discussion between Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump about Trump tariffs, are heading to a resounding victory.

Trump Tariffs – Carney and U.S. President Meet

The CBC – Canada’s government-owned national news website and broadcaster – has a story this morning about dissatisfaction and disarray in the Conservative camp led by party leader Pierre Poilievre. Polls today have the Liberals up by five points. 

Still Poilievre has had a series of “Canada First” grassroots events all this week with lineups of people around the block, similar to the Trump grassroots movements during the last U.S. election campaign.

On Friday, Trump and Carney had their first phone call with Carney as Canada Prime Minister, with Trump positioning it as amicable and productive, a far cry from an aggressive overall Trump tariff policy set to go into effect April 2, hitting imports in key sectors like foreign-made cars and car parts, steel and aluminum, plus the rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S.

Canadian Election: How Serious Do You Take the Prediction Markets?

The fluctuation at prediction markets like Polymarket has been stunning, since Carney assumed the Liberal leadership from the immensely unpopular Justin Trudeau earlier March 9.

Users on the crypto-currency prediction website, which launched in 2020, based in New York, can bet on news events, including political and legislative outcomes, awards, economic indicators. And there has been a lot of interest in Canada politics.

This morning, Polymarket has Carney and his Liberals with a 66% chance of winning ($4.7 million volume), Poilievre at 36% ($6.36 million volume). 

On March 11, Polymarket had Poilievre with a 62% chance of winning, Carney at 39%. Just a month before that, the split was at 83% Poilievre, 17% Carney.

This morning, Kalshi, another prediction betting platform, has a Liberal majority government win at 57%, with a Conservative majority government at 18%. Carney as the next prime minister of Canada is at 70%, Poilievre is at 30%.

Odds Have Shifted at Sportsbooks As Well

FanDuel this morning has the Liberals at -160, the Conservatives at +118. BetMGM has the odds of a Conservative minority government at +450, same with the Liberals. Odds of a Conservative majority are +275, a  Liberal majority at -110. Bet99 has the odds for an election win at Liberals -179, Conservatives +125.

A telling stat: FanDuel has the Conservatives at -1500 to win the most seats in Alberta, with the Liberals at +750. 

If Carney wins the election, set for April 28, eyes will turn to Canada’s western province, as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has made clear that her province will now no longer kowtow to the Liberal Party and its policies of restricting oil and gas production, and the construction of pipelines.

A likely prediction market if that happens will ask the chances that Alberta holds a referendum vote to split from the country.

BetMGM offers a market around a Quebec referendum on separation (+700 before Dec. 31, 2027). They may want to shift to Alberta if Carney and the Liberals win on April 28.