Canadian Election: What’s Next for Gaming if the Liberals Win?

Posted on: April 26, 2025, 11:37h. 

Last updated on: April 26, 2025, 11:37h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

• CGA President & CEO weighs in on what will happen in igaming if Liberals win again
• Liberals big favourites to win election according to betting markets
• Prediction market still heavily favour Liberals but big Conservative betting volume

We’re down to the final strokes before the Canadian national election Monday, with most polls pointing to a Liberal Party win.

Liberal Majority Government?

The Liberal lead has tightened over the Conservative Party (42.3% to 38.6%), but they’re still favoured to win the most seats, holding a bigger edge in the larger provinces – Ontario, Quebec and B.C. – as well as in Atlantic Canada. 

A spokesperson from FanDuel reached out to Casino.org this week, though, with an interesting spin: After the April 17 leadership debate, Conservative Party odds shifted from +220 to +250, to +290 this morning. The Liberals are at -670.

More Bets Going Conservative Way

Despite the odds getting longer, however, the Conservatives are receiving more bets, according to the FanDuel spokesperson.

The most popular markets with Ontarian bettors at FanDuel are “Which party will win the 2025 Federal election”, followed by “Which political party will win the most seats in Ontario” and “How many seats will the Liberal Party win in the Canadian election”.

At BetMGM, the Liberals are at -500 to win the most seats, the Conservatives at +330.

The prediction markets are a whole different story. Imagine what the interest would be if people were allowed to trade on Polymarket in Canada, which they can’t presently? The Liberals under Mark Carney poll vaulted past the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives over a month ago and that lead there has been steady ever since.

This morning on Polymarket it’s 78% that the next Prime Minister of Canada will be Carney, at a volume of just over $19.3 million, with Poilievre at 22% (interestingly, with a volume of over $32,5 million).

What Happens with Gaming if the Liberals Win?

So what happens with Canada’s igaming industry if the polls play out and the Liberals win Monday?

One senior industry source talked to Casino.org about the potential for a digital sales tax on online gaming under a Liberal government.

That would be worry No. 1, because that would just drive up cost and chase legitimate operators out of the market,” the source said. “I could also put a sizeable bet on the Canadian Lottery Coalition trying to shoehorn online gaming into the Online Harms Bill … making it more difficult for other provinces to regulate.”

Canadian Gaming Association President and CEO Paul Burns said that since the federal government handed jurisdiction over gaming to the provinces in the 1980s, it’s issues like updating Canada’s anti-money laundering legislation that the CGA is looking more at.

Digital Gaming Sales Tax

“That’s woefully out of date, and doesn’t reflect today’s industry, use of technology,” Burns said.

That’s where we are actively working with them. That’s our No. 1 priority. We want to see the modernization of that regime. That’s long overdue. It doesn’t matter who is in government. They’re going to have to move forward with legislation. It goes to the heart of Canada’s reputation in the world of having strong action on financial crime. All the sectors impacted are going to be looking for change, modernization and updated legislation.”

On the table if the Liberals win since there’s been no government business getting done since before Christmas is Bill S-269, sponsored by Canadian Senator Marty Deacon, calling for the Minister of Heritage to develop new national standards on gaming advertising around what goes into gambling ads, when they run, and the volume of advertising that’s out there.

National Advertising Bill

“We have been quite clear that the federal government has neither the expertise nor the capacity to do such and it should be left to the provinces,” Burns said.

Obviously people want see a positive business climate in Canada,” he added. “The uncertainty and turmoil that’s been caused with tariffs has been unsettling. It’s been striking consumer confidence. People have been having second thoughts on how they spend their money these days. Whether it’s fear of job loss, or hits to financial portfolios, there’s been lots of turmoil. We want to see that end. [Igaming] operators know their customers are sensitive to this, they’ve seen it and they’re starting to feel it. No one likes uncertainty in the economy. We need a federal government that gets back to work.”

Burns’ reaction to the digital gaming tax that was floated out by the industry source: “That would be incredibly tone deaf. If the politicians that are running for office are true to their commitment about wanting to create a positive business climate in Canada, to do business, that wouldn’t be one way to do it. I would be extremely surprised if that was the case.”