Betting Odds Tighten Amid Canadian Election Rumors

Posted on: March 20, 2025, 03:08h. 

Last updated on: March 20, 2025, 03:10h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Liberal leader Mark Carney rumored to announce end of April or early May vote any day
  • Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck in betting markets
  • Liberals surge ahead in polls

Media reports across Canada today say new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney will dissolve Parliament Sunday and call for an election as early as April 28.

Betting odds tighten dramatically amid Canadian election rumours. Image/Pixabay

Betting Odds Tighten

Carney won the Liberal leadership March 9 after Justin Trudeau resigned and assumed the office of Prime Minister. The dominating story on the political front in Canada of late has been Carney enjoying a post-leadership boost in the polls helped as well by a portion of the Canadian population galvanized against U.S. President Donald Trump and a U.S. trade tariff campaign convinced that the former banker and globalist is best equipped to deal with it.

Both the betting markets and prediction markets like Polymarket have shifted dramatically towards Carney and Liberals since Justin Trudeau left office.

Polls now have the Liberals holding a slight edge (37.7% in the CBC Poll Tracker, with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, at 37.4%), even calling for a Liberal majority government. That explains the timing of Carney’s announcement.

Prediction Markets Fluctuate Wildly

FanDuel has the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck at -125. BetMGM has the Conservatives at -125, the Liberals at -100. Bet365 has odds at Conservatives -120, Liberals -120.

Then there is Polymarket, which has seen a wild fluctuation in recent weeks in Carney’s favour. Users on the New York-based cryptocurrency prediction website, which launched in 2020, can bet on news events, including political and legislative outcomes, awards, and economic indicators.

This afternoon Polymarket has Carney with a 60% chance of winning ($2.11 million volume), and Poilievre at 41% ($3 million volume). Just over a month ago, that split was at 83% Poilievre, 17% Carney.

Same deal at Kalshi, which has Carney’s chances at 59%, Poilievre at 41%.