F1 Drivers’ Champion Odds: Who are the Prediction Markets Favoring?

We’re fast approaching the halfway stage of the 2026 F1 season, as the drivers and their teams prepare for the upcoming Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps on July 19th.

Mercedes’ precocious Kimi Antonelli has dominated the Drivers’ Championship so far, winning five of the first 10 races in 2026 and recording a total of seven podium finishes. 

Unsurprisingly, the 19-year-old Italian is being heavily backed in the prediction markets, with Polymarket affording him a 58.7% chance of winning this year’s Drivers’ Championship at the time of writing. 

However, George Russell is just 25 points behind his Mercedes teammate in the current standings, while the Ferrari pair of Charles Leclerc and the indefatigable Lewis Hamilton also remain in contention. So, who’s the best value pick here?

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The Drivers’ Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?

This market has been fairly volatile in the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli’s win probability ranging from 5.3% to 71.6% between January 10th and June 8th. This peaked after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo.

However, he has gone winless in three races since, while the market appears to have settled amid the recent resurgence of George Russell and relative consistency of both Ferrari drivers.

Interestingly, Russell’s price has continued to move in a much narrower range since his opening weekend victory in Australia. This suggests that his backers are less swayed by sentiment and have high confidence in the true probability of the British driver prevailing.

Lewis Hamilton saw his win probability settle at 13.1% as of July 14th. This has followed a run of four podium finishes in five races, while the seven-time Drivers’ champion also won by +19.561 seconds in Catalonia on June 14th.

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Did you know?

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Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?

Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events. This has been particularly evident in Antonelli’s pricing, which has reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.

This has potentially caused him to be overvalued in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, particularly at a current price of 59¢. 

So, although he undoubtedly remains the favorite, there may be better value picks depending on your risk tolerance and outlook. Here are some options to consider!

“Kimi Antonelli” | “No” at 41.5¢ | 41.3% Chance

Antonelli remains the most obvious pick at first glance, with a 58.7% win probability in the Drivers’ Championship market.

However, this value is marginally lower than his current price of 59¢, reinforcing the idea that the true probability of an Antonelli title win may also be lower. 

There’s certainly a sense that Antonelli’s “Yes” price has already peaked, with Russell, Hamilton and Leclerc increasingly competitive in the previous three races. Antonelli himself is also relatively inexperienced and unproven, while his lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings is now just 25 points.

Ultimately, buying the “No” contract on Antonelli at 41.5¢ offers the best real-time value. This outcome is slightly underpriced, while I expect “No” to trade even higher as the season progresses. This also creates the opportunity to sell back to the market and make a profit before the outcome is settled.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 20¢ | 19% Chance

Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before settling back at 19% at the time of writing.

Clearly, Russell’s price has proved less volatile than Antonelli’s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans. 

The true probability of the 28-year-old winning his maiden title is higher than his price implies, especially given his most recent performances and close proximity to Antonelli in the current standings.

You can trade “Yes” on Russell winning at just 20¢ too, creating a positive EV which reinforces that this outcome is underpriced. This price also has the scope to increase significantly during the season, creating another opportunity to potentially sell your position and lock in an early profit.

“Lewis Hamilton” | “Yes” at 13.2¢ | 13.1% Chance

While nostalgia-loving F1 fans are speculating that Lewis Hamilton could win a record-breaking eighth Drivers’ Championship in 2026, this outcome still appears unlikely.

However, he has undoubtedly benefited from Ferrari’s recent engine upgrades, which has led to improved consistency and corner speeds that were up to 10km/h faster at Silverstone last time out.

Despite trailing teammate Leclerc and ultimately finishing third in the British Grand Prix, he only lost by +0.772 seconds and recorded the fourth fastest lap time overall. He sits third in the Drivers’ Championship and only 32 points adrift of Antonelli too, so he’s sure to remain in contention for a while at least.

The Brit will also relish a trip to Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, where he has won five times previously. So, regardless of the long-term outcome, his current “Yes” price of just 13.2¢ is likely to rise higher in the next few weeks, creating an opportunity to buy now, sell later and secure a desired profit.

The Last Word: How to Trade Polymarket’s F1 Drivers’ Championship Market

As Polymarket operates as an exchange, you’ll trade directly against your peers rather than the house. This enables you to buy and sell contracts and quickly change positions, with a view to locking in profits before the market is settled.

This is definitely recommended in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, as both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton remain significantly undervalued. Russell is on an upward trajectory and should see his price climb incrementally over time, while Hamilton offers short-term value given his recent form and Ferrari’s impactful engine upgrades.

Conversely, trading “No” on Antonelli reflects the fact that the Italian’s price has most likely peaked and his true win probability is lower than currently implied. 

Regardless of who you pick, remember to track the market consistently. This will help you to optimize the timing of your trades, while potentially identifying new opportunities as prices continue to change. You should also check the Polymarket app for any other F1 markets that may offer value!

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