F1 Drivers’ Champion Odds: Who are the Prediction Markets Favoring?

We’re now more than halfway through the 2026 Formula 1 season, with a total of nine races remaining between now and December 6th.

Mercedes’ precocious Kimi Antonelli still sits top of the Drivers’ Championship, having won eight of the first 14 races (57.1%) and recorded a total of 12 podium finishes. 

Unsurprisingly, the 19-year-old Italian is being heavily backed in the prediction markets, with Polymarket now affording him a 91% chance of winning this year’s Drivers’ Championship. 

A total of 81 points now separate Antonelli from teammate George Russell in second, while Lewis Hamilton is 10 points further back in fourth. But which drivers offer optimal value in the marketplace?

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The Drivers’ Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?

This market has been fairly volatile during the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli’s win probability having ranged from 5.3% to 75.4% between January 10th and July 27th. 

This value first peaked at 71.6%, after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo on June 7th. It reached a new high of 75.4% when Antonelli recorded a third-place finish in the Hungarian GP behind Norris and Max Verstappen on July 26th. This shift has also been visible on other top prediction market platforms.

Despite a recent run of one victory in six races, Antonelli has roared to back to form with successive wins in Monza and Madrid. His performance in the Italian GP was particularly impressive, triumphing by +3.857 seconds after starting 19th on the grid. Antonelli is now the overwhelming favorite, with his “Yes” price of 91.1¢ increasingly prohibtive.

George Russell’s probability sank to a new low of 1.7% on September 14th, following a disappointing fifth place finish at the Circuito de Madring. However, this drop may represent an overreaction by traders, with Russell still recording two wins and seven podium finishes in 2026.

Lewis Hamilton has traded within a much narrower range throughout, with his win probability peaking at 17.4%. However, he currently has just a 0.8% probability of winning on Polymarket, having failed to record a podium finish in Italy or Spain (despite his historical record at these venues).

Did you know?

Did you know?

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Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?

Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events. 

This has been particularly evident in Antonelli’s early pricing. This reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and first incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.

The relative inconsistency of teammate Russell has also led to him being slightly overvalued in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, particularly at his current price of 91.1¢. 

So, although he undoubtedly remains the favorite, there may be better value picks depending on your risk tolerance and outlook. Here are some options to consider!

“Kimi Antonelli” | “Yes” at 91.1¢ | 91% Chance

It’s increasingly likely that Antonelli will win his maiden Drivers’ Championship in 2026. However, his true probability of winning is probably slightly lower than his current odds imply.

What’s undeniable is that Antonelli’s current “Yes” price has minimal upside. Sure, you could buy now and hold until settlement, with this yielding a potential 9.77% ROI in less than three months. This is an exceptional return in the timeframe, but you would have to commit your capital until resolution. Similarly, this represents a straight-up bet on Antonelli winning and offers virtually no flexibility.

If you have the available capital and are confident the Italian will prevail, then this represents an incredibly solid trade.

Snapping up “No” shares at just 9.1¢ could theoretically yield a huge return. However, this outcome is statistically unlikely to occur, while the contract value is unlikely to increase markedly without a dramatic collapse in form. Remember, Antonelli has finished on the podium in 85.7% of his races this season, and he has access the quickest car on the grid.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 2.0¢ | 1.7% Chance

Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. 

His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before plummeting to a low of 1.7% at the time of writing.

Prior to June 14th, Russell’s price had proved less volatile than Antonelli’s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans. However, traders have reacted negatively to his recent run of failures, ahead of the next race in Baku on September 26th.

The true probability of the 28-year-old winning his maiden title is probably slightly higher than his price implies, especially given his relative consistency and the fact that he remains within 81 points of Antonelli in the Drivers’ Championship.

You can now buy “Yes” shares on Russell winning at just 2¢, and this price has the scope to increase significantly later in the season. A strong run of form or consecutive wins could push Russell’s price beyond 8¢, creating an opportunity to potentially sell your position and lock in a pre-settlement profit.

“Lando Norris” | “Yes” at 3.2¢ | 3% Chance

Outside of Antonelli, defending champion Lando Norris is one of the few drivers to see his price and win probability increase since early July. The McLaren driver had just a 0.7% chance of retaining his title on July 13th, but this has since increased to 3%.

His win probability actually peaked at 9.6%, just prior to the Italian Grand Prix in Monza. This followed successive victories in the Hungarian and Dutch Grand Prix events, while Norris created further momentum with a podium finish in Madrid last time out.

“Yes” shares in Norris are currently priced at just 3.2¢, but their recent trajectory has revealed a high potential upside. The 26-year-old has tremendous pedigree as the defending champion, while the McLaren MCL40 is now undisputed as the second-fastest car on the grid. This has followed a series of technical updates, which have afforded Norris the edge over both Ferrari drivers.

Norris also won in both Mexico City and Sao Paulo last season, with the corresponding races in 2026 scheduled for November 1st and November 8th, respectively.

If Norris remains consistent and can achieve one or two wins in a short space of time, his “Yes” price can easily scale to 10¢ or beyond. So, buying now and selling at this benchmark could look an ROI of around 212.5%.

The Last Word: How to Trade Polymarket’s F1 Drivers’ Championship Market

As Polymarket operates as an exchange, you’ll trade directly against your peers rather than the house. This enables you to buy and sell contracts and quickly change positions, with a view to locking in profits before the market is settled.

This is definitely recommended in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, as George Russell, Lando Norris, and even Lewis Hamilton remain relatively undervalued. 

Norris’ price of just 3.2¢ is incredibly low and could climb sharply before the end of the season, while Russell also offers short-term value given the dominance of Mercedes and his own quality as a driver.

Regardless of who you pick, remember to track the market consistently. This will help you to optimize the timing of your trades, while potentially identifying new opportunities as prices continue to change. You should also check the Polymarket app for any other F1 markets that may offer value!

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