F1 Drivers’ Champion Odds: Who are the Prediction Markets Favoring?

As it stands, just five F1 races remain in the 2026 season. Mercedes’ precocious Kimi Antonelli is on the brink of winning his maiden Drivers’ Championship, having won nine of the first 18 races (50%) and recorded a total of 15 podium finishes (83.3%).

Following his most recent victory at the United States Grand Prix on October 25th, Antonelli requires a maximum of two points over the final five rounds. This requirement may be lower if F1 bosses decide to cancel the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi and replace them with a single Grand Prix finale at Imola. These races are scheduled to go ahead at the time of writing.

Unsurprisingly, the 20-year-old Italian now has a 100% chance of winning his maiden Drivers’ Championship on Polymarket. He has amassed 365 points to date, and sits 123 points ahead of teammate George Russell in second.

Russell remains one of just two drivers who can mathematically overhaul Antonelli (alongside Lewis Hamilton), and the Italian can theoretically secure the title at the Mexican Grand Prix on November 1st. So, is there any value to be found outside of Antonelli, and what’s the optimal strategy if you hold shares in other drivers?

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The Drivers’ Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?

This market proved fairly volatile during the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli’s win probability having ranged from 5.3% to 75.4% between January 10th and July 27th. 

This value first peaked at 71.6%, after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo on June 7th. It reached a new high of 75.4% when Antonelli recorded a third-place finish in the Hungarian GP behind Norris and Max Verstappen on July 26th. This shift has also been visible on other top prediction market platforms.

Despite a subsequent run of three victories in nine races, Antonelli was dominant in Austin last time out and prevailed by +13.078 seconds from Charles Leclerc. Antonelli remains the most consistent driver overall, and is now almost certain to prevail with a revised win probability of 100%.

George Russell’s probability sank to a new low of 0.1% on October 20th, prior to his eighth-place finish at the Circuit of the Americas. Although this drop seemed like an overreaction by traders (Russell had reminded everyone of his qualities with a dominant performance at the Baku City Circuit on September 6th), he hasn’t placed on the podium since and faces a virtually impossible task to win the title.

Lewis Hamilton has traded within a much narrower range throughout, with his win probability peaking at 17.4%. However, he can currently be backed at just 0.1¢, and also has a less than 1% chance of winning.

Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?

Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events. 

This has been particularly evident in Antonelli’s early pricing. This reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and first incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.

The relative inconsistency of teammate Russell has also led to him being slightly overvalued in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market at times. However, his current “Yes” price of 99.7¢ is fair and reflects his dominant position in the standings.

The question that remains is whether there are alternative picks that offer value at this stage of the season. Here’s my analysis:

“Kimi Antonelli” | “Yes” at 99.7¢ | 100% Chance

It’s now almost certain that Antonelli will claim his maiden Drivers’ Championship in 2026. Of course, his current implied win probability is slightly higher than his true chances of winning, with the sportsbook consensus affording him a 99% probability.

What’s undeniable is that Antonelli’s current “Yes” price has minimal upside. However, he’s also statistically likely to win the title, while the market may resolve in his favor in a matter of days. So, you could consider buying a “Yes” contract at 99.7¢, as holding until settlement may deliver a nominal 0.30% return in a relatively short period of time.

However, such a low return is hardly worth the risk, especially when you factor in trading fees and potential slippage.

Snapping up “No” shares at just 0.4¢ could theoretically yield a huge return of 24,900%. However, this outcome is almost statistically impossible, barring a string of engine or mechanical failures that prevent Antonelli from finishing most of the remaining races.

Remember, Antonelli has finished on the podium in 83.3% of his races this season, and he has access to one of the quickest cars on the grid. So, I would also avoid buying “No” shares regardless of the potential upside.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 0.1¢ | <1% Chance

Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. 

His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before plummeting to an initial low of 1.7% on September 14th.

Prior to June 14th, Russell’s price had proved less volatile than Antonelli’s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans. However, traders have reacted negatively to his recent run of failures, notwithstanding his spectacular return to form in Baku.

Although Russell remains Antonelli’s closest challenger, he remains 123 points adrift. He has just one podium finish in his previous five outings, while has only won three out of 17 races this season (16.6%). So, he simply lacks the consistency to challenge Antonelli as the 2026 season approaches its conclusion.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in Russell winning at just 2¢ on September 14th. This price has now contracted by 95%, while low liquidity levels will make it incredibly difficult to sell your position. So, you’ll need to hold your shares in the hope that Russell can mount a short-term recovery that drives his price higher.

If Russell wins in Mexico and Antonelli fails to finish, the Brit’s “Yes” price may temporarily spike. However, I would avoid buying shares in Russell now, due to his low statistical win probability and relative lack of form.

“Lewis Hamilton” | “Yes” at 0.1¢ | <1% Chance

As we’ve touched on, Hamilton is the only other driver who can mathematically catch Antonelli in the Drivers’ Championship. Like Russell, however, he has just a 0.1% chance of winning the title, while the seven-time title winner sits 124 points behind Antonelli in the standings.

Hamilton’s price has collapsed since July 17th, after his third-place finish in the British Grand Prix. Since then, he has recorded a single podium finish in nine attempts, with the value of his “Yes” shares tumbling from 15¢ to the current benchmark of 0.1¢.

Hamilton’s meagre win probability is constrained further by the recent improvements showcased by Max Verstappen and Red Bull. This constructor unveiled a huge upgrade package at Baku, with Verstappen subsequently securing four successive podium finishes and two victories.

So, the Dutch driver will be Antonelli’s closest challenger in Mexico City, especially when you consider Red Bull’s significant straight-line speed and power advantage. Verstappen is even the bookmakers’ favorite to win the Mexican Grand Prix, and currently has a 38.5% win probability (compared to 35.7% for Antonelli).

As with Russell, if you already hold “Yes” shares in Hamilton, you’ll need to hold your position for the time being. Hamilton has two historic victories in Mexico, and a further triumph on November 1st could trigger a temporary price hike if Antonelli crashes out. Once again, I’d recommend against buying shares in Hamilton now, as this would represent the ultimate long shot bet.

The Last Word: How to Trade Polymarket’s F1 Drivers’ Championship Market

As Polymarket operates as an exchange, you’ll trade directly against your peers rather than the house. This enables you to buy and sell contracts and quickly change positions, with a view to locking in profits before the market is settled.

However, Antonelli’s dominance has reduced the market’s liquidity levels, creating minimal opportunities to sell existing positions profitably. Similarly, it’s incredibly difficult to snap up “Yes” shares now and flip these prior to resolution.

This is definitely the case now, with Polymarket traders affording Antonelli a 100% win probability. Although you can buy “Yes” shares in the Italian and secure a quick and nominal return, the approximate ROI of 0.30% is scarcely worth the time or potential risk.

I expect this market to settle after the Mexico Grand Prix, as Antonelli requires just two points to secure his maiden title (regardless of how Russell and Hamilton fare). So, it’s important to track your open positions and take any necessary steps to protect your capital.

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