F1 Drivers’ Champion Odds: Who are the Prediction Markets Favoring?

As it stands, just six F1 races remain in the 2026 season. Mercedes’ precocious Kimi Antonelli still sits top of the Drivers’ Championship, having won eight of the first 17 races (47.05%) and recorded a total of 14 podium finishes (82.3%).

Following his most recent podium finish in Singapore on October 11th, Antonelli requires a maximum of 49 points over the final six rounds. This requirement may be lower if F1 bosses decide to cancel the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi and replace them with a single Grand Prix finale at Imola. A final decision is expected to be taken this week.

Unsurprisingly, the 20-year-old Italian now has a 97% chance of winning his maiden Drivers’ Championship on Polymarket. He has amassed 340 points to date, and sits 102 points ahead of teammate George Russell in second.

Although a total of five drivers can mathematically overhaul Antonelli, the Italian can theoretically secure the title at the United States Grand Prix in Austin on October 25th. So, is there any value to be found outside of Antonelli, and what’s the optimal strategy if you hold shares in other drivers?

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The Drivers’ Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?

This market proved fairly volatile during the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli’s win probability having ranged from 5.3% to 75.4% between January 10th and July 27th. 

This value first peaked at 71.6%, after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo on June 7th. It reached a new high of 75.4% when Antonelli recorded a third-place finish in the Hungarian GP behind Norris and Max Verstappen on July 26th. This shift has also been visible on other top prediction market platforms.

Despite a subsequent run of one victory in six races, Antonelli roared to back to form with successive wins in Monza and Madrid. His performance in the Italian GP was particularly impressive, triumphing by +3.857 seconds after starting 19th on the grid. Antonelli remains the most consistent driver overall, and is now almost certain to prevail with a revised win probability of 97%.

George Russell’s probability sank to a new low of 1.7% on September 14th, following a disappointing fifth place finish at the Circuito de Madring. Although this drop seemed like an overreaction by traders (Russell reminded everyone of his qualities with a dominant performance at the Baku City Circuit on September 6th), he hasn’t placed on the podium since and now has a win probability of less than 1%.

Lewis Hamilton has traded within a much narrower range throughout, with his win probability peaking at 17.4%. However, he can currently be backed at just 0.3¢, and also has a less than 1% chance of winning.

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Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?

Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events. 

This has been particularly evident in Antonelli’s early pricing. This reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and first incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.

The relative inconsistency of teammate Russell has also led to him being slightly overvalued in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market at times. However, his current “Yes” price of 97.5¢ is fair and reflects his dominant position in the standings.

The question that remains is whether there are alternative picks that offer value at this stage of the season. Here’s my analysis:

“Kimi Antonelli” | “Yes” at 97.5¢ | 97% Chance

It’s now almost certain that Antonelli will claim his maiden Drivers’ Championship in 2026. His current implied win probability arguably aligns with his actual chances of prevailing, too.

What’s undeniable is that Antonelli’s current “Yes” price has minimal upside. However, he’s also statistically likely to win the title, while the market is expected to resolve in his favor in a matter of weeks. So, you could consider buying a “Yes” contract at 97.5¢, as holding until settlement may deliver a 2.56% return in a relatively short period of time.

Snapping up “No” shares at just 3.1¢ could theoretically yield a huge return of 3,125.81%. However, this outcome is almost statistically impossible, barring a string of engine or mechanical failures that prevent Antonelli from finishing most of the remaining races.

Remember, Antonelli has finished on the podium in 82.3% of his races this season, and he has access to one of the quickest cars on the grid. So, I would avoid buying “No” shares regardless of the potential upside.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 0.4¢ | <1% Chance

Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. 

His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before plummeting to an initial low of 1.7% on September 14th.

Prior to June 14th, Russell’s price had proved less volatile than Antonelli’s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans. However, traders have reacted negatively to his recent run of failures, notwithstanding his spectacular return to form in Baku.

Although Russell remains Antonelli’s closest challenger, he remains 102 points adrift. He has just one podium finish in his previous four outings, while has only won three out of 17 races this season (17.6%). So, he simply lacks the consistency to challenge Antonelli as the 2026 season approaches its conclusion.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in Russell winning at just 2¢ on September 14th. This price has now contracted by 80%, so you could choose to sell your position as a way of minimizing potential losses (liquidity permitting, of course).

However, you could also hold your position. A dominant victory for Russell in Texas on October 25th could see his price rise again, especially if Antonelli fails to finish. This could secure a superior exit point a little later in the season.

“Max Verstappen” | “Yes” at 1.2¢ | 1% Chance

Outside of Antonelli, the talented Max Verstappen is one of the few drivers to see his price and win probability increase since late June. However, his win probability remains a distant 1% at the time of writing, despite the Dutchman winning consecutive races in Bahrain and Singapore.

Verstappen has also recorded a podium finish in each of his previous five races, and remains the form driver since late August.

The four-time F1 Drivers’ Champion has benefited hugely from Red Bull’s recent upgrades. This included a package of improvements for the RB22 ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which simultaneously eradicated the car’s early-season handling issues and realized its full pace. The RB22 was the quickest vehicle by far in both Sepang and Marina Bay.

Verstappen also won six of the final nine races in the 2025 F1 season. This saw him mount a late, unlikely title charge, while the sequence included victories in Austin, Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi after October 5th. A similar run of form in the upcoming weeks could increase the Dutchman’s price and unlock a nominal profit before the end of the season.

Of course, much depends on whether F1 bosses decide to cancel the events in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. This announcement alone could send Verstappen’s “Yes” price tumbling from its current benchmark of of 1.2¢. Ultimately, this would represent a high-risk trade, but perhaps one of the few that would enable you to flip your position profitably before settlement.

The Last Word: How to Trade Polymarket’s F1 Drivers’ Championship Market

As Polymarket operates as an exchange, you’ll trade directly against your peers rather than the house. This enables you to buy and sell contracts and quickly change positions, with a view to locking in profits before the market is settled.

However, Antonelli’s dominance has reduced the market’s liquidity levels, creating minimal opportunities to sell existing positions profitably. Similarly, it’s incredibly difficult to snap up “Yes” shares now and flip these prior to resolution.

Max Verstappen offers a potential exception here. His RB22 car is the fastest on the grid at present, while his ability and strong finish to the 2025 campaign means that he may offer short-term value at a price of 1.2¢.

Regardless of who you pick, remember to track the market consistently. This will help you to optimize the timing of your trades, whether you want to minimize potential losses or maximize your chances of banking a return. You should also check the Polymarket app for any other F1 markets that may offer value!

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