F1 Drivers’ Champion Odds: Who are the Prediction Markets Favoring?

After Lando Norris recorded his maiden win in 2026 at the Hungaroring on July 26th, a total of 13 races remain on this year’s F1 calendar.  

Mercedes’ precocious Kimi Antonelli still sits top of the Drivers’ Championship, having won six of the first 11 races and recorded a total of nine podium finishes. 

Unsurprisingly, the 19-year-old Italian is being heavily backed in the prediction markets, with Polymarket now affording him a 74.6% chance of winning this year’s Drivers’ Championship at the time of writing. 

However, just 59 points separate Antonelli at the top of the standings and his teammate George Russell in third, while Lewis Hamilton is sandwiched between these two drivers. So, who’s the best value pick at the time of writing?

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The Drivers’ Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?

This market has been fairly volatile during the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli’s win probability having ranged from 5.3% to 75.4% between January 10th and July 27th. 

This value first peaked at 71.6%, after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo on June 7th. It reached a new high after Antonelli recorded a third-place finish in the Hungarian GP behind Norris and Max Verstappen last time out. This shift has also been visible on other top prediction market platforms.

Interestingly, he has only taken the chequered flag once in the previous five races, with Norris, Charles Leclerc, Russell and Hamilton also recording victories during this period. Despite this, both his price and win probability have risen incrementally since the end of June, as a single compelling challenger has yet to emerge.

George Russell’s probability sank to a new low of 6% on July 27th, after engine issues at the Hungaroring left him trailing in seventh place. However, this drop may represent an overreaction by traders, with Russell still recording two wins and five podium finishes in 2026.

Lewis Hamilton has traded within a much narrower range throughout, with his win probability peaking at 17.4%. He currently has a 10.1% probability of winning on Polymarket, and will race at three venues where he has enjoyed huge historic success in September.

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Did you know?

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Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?

Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events. 

This has been particularly evident in Antonelli’s pricing, which has reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and first incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.

The struggles of teammate Russell have also led to him being potentially overvalued in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, particularly at his current price of 74.7¢. 

So, although he undoubtedly remains the favorite, there may be better value picks depending on your risk tolerance and outlook. Here are some options to consider!

“Kimi Antonelli” | “No” at 25.4¢ | 25% Chance

Antonelli remains the most obvious pick at first glance, with a 75% win probability in the Drivers’ Championship market.

It’s certainly true that Antonelli’s “Yes” price has minimal upside, especially with the driver having only won once in his last five outings. Antonelli is also relatively inexperienced and unproven, while his lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings is still relatively slender at 50 points.

Ultimately, buying the “No” contract on Antonelli at 25.4¢ offers the best real-time value. This outcome is slightly underpriced, and I expect “No” to trade even higher as the season progresses. This also creates the opportunity to sell back to the market and make a profit before the outcome is settled.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 6¢ | 6% Chance

Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. 

His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before plummeting to a low of 6% at the time of writing.

Prior to June 14th, Russell’s price had proved less volatile than Antonelli’s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans. However, traders have reacted negatively to his recent run of failures, ahead of the next race in the Netherlands on August 23rd.

The true probability of the 28-year-old winning his maiden title is higher than his price implies, especially given his relative consistency and the fact that he’s only 59 points behind Antonelli in the Drivers’ Championship.

You can now buy “Yes” shares on Russell winning at just 6¢, creating a positive EV which reinforces that this outcome is underpriced. The current price also has the scope to increase significantly later in the season, creating another opportunity to potentially sell your position and lock in an early profit.

“Lewis Hamilton” | “Yes” at 10.1¢ | 10% Chance

While nostalgia-loving F1 fans are still speculating that Lewis Hamilton could win a record-breaking eighth Drivers’ Championship in 2026, this outcome still appears unlikely.

However, he has undoubtedly benefited from Ferrari’s recent engine upgrades, which have led to improved consistency and corner speeds that were up to 10km/h faster at Silverstone on July 5th.

Despite trailing teammate Leclerc and ultimately finishing third in the British Grand Prix, he only lost by +0.772 seconds and recorded the fourth fastest lap time overall. He now sits second in the Drivers’ Championship and 50 points adrift of Antonelli, too, so he’s sure to remain in outside contention for a while at least.

The Brit has recorded five podium finishes and raced consistently so far, while September will bring trips to Monza and Madrid (where Hamilton has recorded a total of 11 historic victories). So, his current “Yes” price of 10.1¢ offers short-term value and a significant upside as the season progresses.

The Last Word: How to Trade Polymarket’s F1 Drivers’ Championship Market

As Polymarket operates as an exchange, you’ll trade directly against your peers rather than the house. This enables you to buy and sell contracts and quickly change positions, with a view to locking in profits before the market is settled.

This is definitely recommended in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market, as both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton remain significantly undervalued. 

Russell’s price of just 6¢ is incredibly low and should climb incrementally over time, while Hamilton offers short-term value given Ferrari’s impactful engine upgrades and the race schedule in September.

Conversely, trading “No” on Antonelli reflects the fact that the Italian’s price has most likely peaked and his true win probability is much lower than currently implied. 

Regardless of who you pick, remember to track the market consistently. This will help you to optimize the timing of your trades, while potentially identifying new opportunities as prices continue to change. You should also check the Polymarket app for any other F1 markets that may offer value!

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