Next James Bond Odds & Prediction Markets: Who Will Be Cast as 007?

Following Daniel Craig’s final appearance as James Bond in No Time to Die, there have been years of speculation regarding who will succeed him as 007. 

The good news is that we may finally be closer to finding out. That’s because the casting process is nearly complete, with the next installation of this classic franchise expected to be released in 2028.

The Bond brand will have a different feel from the Craig era. Amazon acquired the franchise in 2025, and director Denis Villeneuve and scriptwriter Steven Knight were quickly hired. Experienced casting director Nina Gold is tasked with finding the best man for the job. So, which devilishly handsome actor will be handed the license to kill? 

Over 20 names currently feature on this Polymarket prediction market. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, key price movements, and leading candidates.

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Jack Lowden Odds – A Late Frontrunner Thanks to Market Speculation

“Jack Lowden” | “Yes” at 42.7¢ | 41% Chance

After a period of relative calm, Scottish actor Jack Lowden first emerged as the new market frontrunner on August 11th. This followed an episode of “The Rest Is Entertainment” podcast on August 10th, during which host Richard Osman revealed that Lowden was being “strongly considered” for the role. Osman suggested that Lowden possessed “real Daniel Craig energy” when discussing his suitability for the role.

Shortly afterwards in mid-September, Apple TV+ announced the eighth season of its hit espionage thriller, Slow Horses. However, Lowden (who plays the lead MI5 agent River Cartwright) was absent from the press release synopsis. This sparked further speculation and sent Lowden’s “Yes” price soaring to 42.7¢.

Initially, Lowden’s portrayal of Cartwright in hit show deterred traders from backing him. This example of typecasting is something that the producers would potentially prefer to avoid, while they have also said that they’re searching for a younger actor with a different aesthetic and relative lack of profile. Lowden is now 36 years old, and arguably unable to offer the longevity required by producers.

These factors drove Lowden’s price down to 3.6¢ on June 6th. However, it has since risen by 1,120% in a little over three month, and I’d urge you to sell now if you bought in at the rock-bottom price. But does Lowden still offer value at his current price of 42.7¢?

This type of market is driven purely by rumor and speculation, while the recent revelations may have already caused Lowden’s price to peak. So, although there’s inherent value in buying “Yes” shares in the actor if you think he will go on to land the role before December 31st, he offers minimal upside if you intend to sell prior to settlement.

‘No Bond’ Odds – Failing to Reveal the New 007 Before December 31st

“No Bond Chosen” | “Yes” at 21.1¢ | 21% Chance

On Polymarket, this market will resolve as “No Bond Chosen” if Daniel Craig’s successor isn’t named by midnight on December 31st, 2026. 

This outcome has seemed unlikely at points in 2026, especially in May when Amazon MGM revealed that the formal casting process for the next James Bond was underway. This helped drive the outcome’s “Yes” probability down to just 1.1%, but this rebounded spectacularly to 48.4% on July 24th amid a lack of progress or further speculation.

Although the odds have since settled back at 21% after the ongoing Lowden speculation, this arguably creates a profitable entry point into the market. 

The price will certainly continue to fluctuate amid press speculation and casting updates. It recently surged to 46.5¢ on September 13th, prior to the latest Slow Horses press release being published. This highlights a huge potential upside, while the contract’s underlying value will rise incrementally as we approach the end of the year.

Remember, producer Barbara Broccoli has also confirmed that selecting the next Bond will extend beyond a simple casting choice. Instead, they’ll focus on “reinventing” the character and franchise, and the final decision is likely to take time. 

Ultimately, buying “Yes” shares here at 21.1¢ unlocks obvious value. This is especially true if you intend to flip your position prior to market settlement. Just note that this strategy requires you to track the market and its price fluctuations on a daily basis. Similarly, you’ll need to be mindful of low-liquidity traps if you intend to hold until later in the year.

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Callum Turner Odds – Casting a High Profile British Star With a Huge Following

“Callum Turner” | “Yes” at 20.5¢ | 20% Chance

Callum Turner is a name that just won’t go away. His “Yes” price peaked at 54¢ shortly after the market opened, but suggestions that the franchise will move in a completely different direction appear to have hurt Turner’s price and probability.

Like Lowden, Turner is also 36 years old at the time of writing. This also counts against the Fantastic Beasts star, with producers thought to be keen on casting an actor in their 20s as the next Bond. This is because they want someone who can commit to a 10-12 year project.

Remember, sentiment in this market is driven almost entirely by speculation, too, and Turner is now afforded a 20% chance of being cast.

However, Turner would represent a departure for the Bond franchise when you consider his profile. Historically, producers have favored relatively obscure actors and looked to build the character around them, but Turner is already a critically acclaimed star who’s married to singer Dua Lipa. Traders have also reacted favorably to Turner’s classic good looks and gritty acting persona.

Insiders have suggested that Amazon MGM Studios are also favoring a British actor as part of their casting process.

Overall, Turner retains relative value at his current price of 20.5¢. Further speculation or press updates could send this soaring once again, potentially creating a viable exit point between 35¢ and 45¢.

“It is absolutely essential that [Bond] remains a total enigma. I don’t want to see any of them as Bond because we now know so much about them. We want to know as little about them personally as possible, because that’s what spies are.”

Debbie McWilliams, former casting boss

Jack Barton Odds – A ‘Total Enigma’ and Viable Value Pick

“Jack Barton” | “Yes” at 9.5¢ | 9% Chance

Jack Barton has been a steady contender since the market opened, with his probability ranging between 7% and 18.9%. His price is also much less volatile than that of his rivals, possibly because he has a number of fundamental factors in his favor.

For example, longtime Bond casting director Debbie McWilliams has previously suggested that the 26th 007 should be a “total enigma”. This would favor a relatively unknown actor who isn’t widely known to the public. Barton also has a longstanding working relationship with writer Steven Knight, who will pen the script for the upcoming Bond reboot.

At 31, Barton may be slightly older than the desired age profile. However, he’s still young enough to commit to a long-term project as Bond, while he arguably has the maturity and gravitas that’s required for the role.

The Oxford School of Drama graduate is competitively priced at 9.5¢ at the time of writing, too. There’s certainly scope for this to increase in the coming weeks, with the 20¢ – 25¢ range offering a viable exit point if you buy “Yes” shares now.

The Last Word – Trading the Next James Bond Actor

Most James Bond Actor markets offer immense flexibility, and the opportunity to flip “Yes” or “No” positions for a short-term profit. This is definitely true when backing contenders like Turner or Barton.

However, current favorite Lowden may have seen his own price peak after recent speculation. This means that buying “Yes” shares in the actor is only valuable if you think he will be cast prior to December 31st.

You can also buy “No Bond Chosen” shares at just 21.1¢. This remains one of the most likely outcomes from a statistical perspective, while the price will continue to increase as the settlement date of December 31st approaches. This creates the opportunity to buy, hold, and profit much later in 2026, liquidity permitting.

Regardless, I suggest tracking markets consistently. This will help you identify trading opportunities and act before it’s too late. 

For example, many purchased “Yes” contracts on Idris Elba to be the next Bond when he was priced at 96¢. However, most have since sold after the Heads of State actor effectively ruled himself out of the running. He’s no longer listed as a contender on Polymarket.

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