Next James Bond Odds & Prediction Markets: Who Will Be Cast as 007?

Following Daniel Craig’s final appearance as James Bond in No Time to Die, there have been years of speculation regarding who will succeed him as 007. 

The good news is that we may finally be closer to finding out. That’s because the casting process is nearly complete, with the next installation of this classic franchise expected to be released in 2028.

The Bond brand will have a different feel from the Craig era. Amazon acquired the franchise in 2025, and director Denis Villeneuve and scriptwriter Steven Knight were quickly hired. Experienced casting director Nina Gold is tasked with finding the best man for the job. So, which devilishly handsome actor will be handed the license to kill? 

Over 20 names currently feature on this Polymarket prediction market. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, key price movements, and leading candidates.

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Jack Lowden Odds – A Late Frontrunner Thanks to Market Speculation

“Jack Lowden” | “Yes” at 19.8¢ | 20% Chance

After a period of relative calm, Scottish actor Jack Lowden emerged as the new market frontrunner on August 11th. This followed an episode of “The Rest Is Entertainment” podcast on August 10th, during which host Richard Osman revealed that Lowden was being “strongly considered” for the role.

Lowden’s price has almost doubled since this revelation, while it’s up from a low of 3.6¢ on June 6th. If you bought “Yes” shares at the latter price, you can sell now for a huge 450% profit. But does Lowden still offer value at his current price of 19.8¢?

Interestingly, Osman suggested that Lowden possessed “real Daniel Craig energy” when discussing his suitability for the role. However, it’s believed that producers want to hire a younger actor with a different aesthetic and relative lack of profile, with these factors counting against the candidate.

To begin with, Lowden is best known for his portrayal of ambitious MI5 agent River Cartwright in the Apple TV hit Slow Horses. This type of obvious connection and typecasting is something that producers are seemingly keen to avoid. Lowden is also 36 years old, which means that he’s unlikely to offer the longevity required by producers.

It has been reported that producers want to hire someone who can commit to at least a 10-year stint as Bond, or potentially lead an origin storyline.

This type of market is driven purely by rumor and speculation, while the recent revelation may have already caused Lowden’s price to peak. So, although there’s inherent value in buying “Yes” shares in the actor if you think he will go on to land the role before December 31st, he offers minimal upside if you intend to sell prior to settlement.

‘No Bond’ Odds – Failing to Reveal the New 007 Before December 31st

“No Bond Chosen” | “Yes” at 21.2¢ | 21% Chance

On Polymarket, this market will resolve as “No Bond Chosen” if Daniel Craig’s successor isn’t named by midnight on December 31st, 2026. 

This outcome has seemed unlikely at points in 2026, especially in May when Amazon MGM revealed that the formal casting process for the next James Bond was underway. This helped drive the outcome’s “Yes” price down to just 1.1¢, but this rebounded spectacularly to 48.4¢ on July 24th amid a lack of progress or further speculation.

Although the price has since settled back at 21.2¢ after the Lowden speculation, this arguably creates a potentially profitable entry point into the market. 

Remember, producer Barbara Broccoli has confirmed that selecting the next Bond will extend beyond a simple casting choice. Instead, they’ll focus on “reinventing” the character and franchise, and the final decision is likely to take time. 

Buying “Yes” shares here at 21.2¢ definitely unlocks value, especially if you intend to hold until final settlement or late December (while looking to avoid low-liquidity traps). However, the price will continue to fluctuate amid press speculation and casting updates, so you should seek out alternative outcomes if you want to flip positions and lock in earlier profits.

Jacob Elordi Odds – Reinventing Bond With a Huge Value Pick

“Jacob Elordi” | “Yes” at 6¢ | 6% Chance

Bond producer Amy Pascal has echoed the need to be methodical when choosing the next 007. She has also reaffirmed how hard it will be to follow Daniel Craig, suggesting that the franchise should move in  an “exciting and different” direction.

This hints at a potential outlier like Jacob Elordi being cast. While the 29-year-old would be the youngest Bond ever, he would also fit the producers’ desire to bring in an actor who can comfortably commit to a 10-12 year project.

Elordi would also be just the second Australian to portray Bond, and the first since the much-maligned George Lazenby in 1969. At a towering 6’5″ (196 cm), Elordi would offer a more physically dominant presence than Craig or any previous Bond, too, contributing to a completely redefined look.

Elordi’s price has previously peaked at 48.5¢, but it has since fallen to just 6¢. So, buying “Yes” shares now unlocks significant value and a huge potential upside, especially if producers commit further to reinventing the franchise. This may create an exit opportunity at around 35¢ later in the year.

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Did you know?

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Callum Turner Odds – Casting a High Profile Star With a Huge Following

“Callum Turner” | “Yes” at 18¢ | 18% Chance

Callum Turner is a name that just won’t go away. His “Yes” price peaked at 54¢ shortly after the market opened, with traders reacting favorably to Turner’s classic good looks and gritty acting persona (which bears similarities with Daniel Craig).

However, suggestions that the franchise will move in a completely different direction appear to have hurt Turner’s price and probability. Sentiment in this market is driven almost entirely by speculation, too, with Turner afforded just a 14% chance of being cast on August 11th.

This has since rebounded to 18%, while Turner would represent a departure for the Bond franchise when you consider his profile. Historically, producers have favored relatively obscure actors and looked to build the character around them, but Turner is already a critically acclaimed star who’s married to singer Dua Lipa.

Overall, Turner retains value at his current price of 18¢. Further speculation or press updates could send this soaring once again, potentially creating a viable exit point between 35¢ and 45¢.

“It is absolutely essential that [Bond] remains a total enigma. I don’t want to see any of them as Bond because we now know so much about them. We want to know as little about them personally as possible, because that’s what spies are.”

Debbie McWilliams, former casting boss

The Last Word – Trading the Next James Bond Actor

Most James Bond Actor markets offer immense flexibility, and the opportunity to flip “Yes” or “No” positions for a short-term profit. This is definitely true when backing contenders like Elordi or Turner.

However, current favorite Lowden may have seen his own price peak after recent speculation. This means that buying “Yes” shares in the actor is only valuable if you think he will be cast prior to December 31st.

You can also buy “No Bond Chosen” shares at just 21.2¢. This remains the most likely outcome from a statistical perspective, while the price will continue to increase as the settlement date of December 31st approaches. This creates the opportunity to buy, hold, and profit much later in 2026, liquidity permitting.

Regardless, I suggest tracking markets consistently. This will help you identify trading opportunities and act before it’s too late. 

For example, many purchased “Yes” contracts on Idris Elba to be the next Bond when he was priced at 96¢. However, most have since sold after the Heads of State actor effectively ruled himself out of the running. 

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