Next James Bond Odds & Prediction Markets: Who Will Be Cast as 007?

Following Daniel Craig’s final appearance as James Bond in No Time to Die, there have been years of speculation regarding who will succeed him as 007. 

The good news is that we may finally be closer to finding out. That’s because the audition process to find the next world-famous secret agent has begun.

The Bond brand will have a different feel from the Craig era. Amazon acquired the franchise in 2025, and director Denis Villeneuve and scriptwriter Steven Knight were quickly hired. Experienced casting director Nina Gold is tasked with finding the best man for the job. So, which devilishly handsome young actor will be handed the license to kill? 

Over 20 names currently feature on this Polymarket prediction market. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, key price movements, and leading candidates.

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The Current “Next James Bond Actor” Odds

Luther and The Wire favorite Idris Elba was the frontrunner for many months. His “Yes” price was 96¢ back on January 25th. 

However, after the actor himself said that Bond shouldn’t become “woke” and questioned whether some viewers would accept a black 007, he doesn’t even feature on this Polymarket market today. 

Other highly established actors also appear to be long shots. Henry Cavill, Tom Holland, and Tom Hardy are all currently given a less than 5% probability of landing the role, with those in charge historically favoring rising Hollywood stars who are more malleable.

‘No Bond’ Odds – Failing to Reveal the New 007 Before December 31st

“No Bond Chosen” | “Yes” at 28.4¢ | 28% Chance

On Polymarket, this market will resolve as “No Bond Chosen” if Daniel Craig’s successor isn’t named by midnight on December 31st, 2026. 

This outcome has seemed unlikely at points in 2026, especially in May when Amazon MGM revealed that the formal casting process for the next James Bond was underway. This helped drive the outcome’s “Yes” price down to just 1.1¢, but this rebounded spectacularly to 48.4¢ on July 24th amid a lack of progress or further speculation.

Although the price has since settled back at 28.4¢, this arguably creates a potentially profitable entry point into the market. 

Remember, producer Barbara Broccoli has confirmed that selecting the next Bond will extend beyond a simple casting choice. Instead, they’ll focus on “reinventing” the character and franchise, and this process is likely to take time. 

Buying “Yes” shares here at 28.4¢ definitely unlocks value, especially if you intend to hold until final settlement or late December (while looking to avoid low-liquidity traps). However, the price is likely to fluctuate amid press speculation and casting updates, so you should seek out alternative outcomes if you want to flip positions and lock in earlier profits.

Jacob Elordi Odds – Reinventing Bond With a Huge Value Pick

“Jacob Elordi” | “Yes” at 5.6¢ | 4% Chance

Bond producer Amy Pascal has echoed the need to be methodical when choosing the next 007. She has also reaffirmed how hard it will be to follow Daniel Craig, suggesting that the franchise should move in  an “exciting and different” direction.

This hints at a potential outlier like Jacob Elordi being cast. While the 29-year-old would be the youngest Bond ever, he would also fit the producers’ desire to bring in an actor who can comfortably commit to a 10-12 year project.

Elordi would also be just the second Australian to portray Bond, and the first since the much-maligned George Lazenby in 1969. At a towering 6’5″ (196 cm), Elordi would offer a more physically dominant presence than Craig or any previous Bond, too, contributing to a completely redefined look.

Elordi’s price has previously peaked at 48.5¢, but it has since fallen to just 5.6¢. So, buying “Yes” shares now unlocks significant value and a huge potential upside, especially if producers commit further to reinventing the franchise. This may create an exit opportunity at around 35¢ later in the year.

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Did you know?

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Callum Turner Odds – Casting a High Profile Star With a Huge Following

“Callum Turner” | “Yes” at 16¢ | 16% Chance

Callum Turner is a name that just won’t go away. His “Yes” price peaked at 54¢ shortly after the market opened, with traders reacting favorably to Turner’s classic good looks and gritty acting persona (which bears similarities with Daniel Craig).

However, suggestions that the franchise will move in a completely different direction appear to have hurt Turner’s price and probability. Sentiment in this market is driven almost entirely by speculation, too, with Turner afforded just a 14% chance of being cast on August 11th.

This has since rebounded to 16%, while Turner would represent a departure for the Bond franchise when you consider his profile. Historically, producers have favored relatively obscure actors and looked to build the character around them, but Turner is already a critically acclaimed star who’s married to singer Dua Lipa.

Overall, Turner retains value at his current price of 16¢. Further speculation or press updates could send this soaring once again, potentially creating a viable exit point between 35¢ and 45¢.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson Odds – An Underpriced Former Favorite With Significant Upside

Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 4% Chance | Yes 5.1¢

Speculation about Aaron Taylor-Johnson becoming 007 has raged for years, with this helping to drive his “Yes” price up as high as 51¢ on June 4th. 

So, it’s a surprise to see the actor’s probability so low, with this having slumped to just 4% at the time of writing. This can be explained in part by unverified rumors that he turned down the role earlier in 2026, alongside his decision to join the upcoming Netflix drama “Enigma Variations”.

Taylor-Johnson is now 36 years old, too, and may be deemed a little too old to take on the role by producers.

However, he’s a high-profile, award-winning actor who retains a long-standing partnership with Omega (the official Bond watchmaker). He’s also severely underpriced amid trader fatigue and the emergence of new candidates, so consider buying “Yes” now at 5.1¢ and selling later in the year.

“It is absolutely essential that [Bond] remains a total enigma. I don’t want to see any of them as Bond because we now know so much about them. We want to know as little about them personally as possible, because that’s what spies are.”

Debbie McWilliams, former casting boss

The Last Word – Trading the Next James Bond Actor

Most James Bond Actor markets offer immense flexibility, and the opportunity to flip “Yes” or “No” positions for a short-term profit. This is definitely true when backing contenders like Elordi, Turner or Taylor-Johnson.

However, you can also buy “No Bond Chosen” shares at just 28.4¢. This remains the most likely outcome from a statistical perspective, while the price will continue to increase as the settlement date of December 31st approaches. This creates the opportunity to buy, hold, and profit much later in 2026, liquidity permitting.

Regardless, I suggest tracking markets consistently. This will help you identify trading opportunities and act before it’s too late. 

For example, many purchased “Yes” contracts on Idris Elba to be the next Bond when he was priced at 96¢. However, most have since sold after the Heads of State actor effectively ruled himself out of the running. 

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