Infantino Odds and Predictions: Will He Leave By December 31st?

Gianni Infantino will continue as FIFA President for the time being following a crisis meeting in Morocco, where he received “full support” from the organization’s senior leadership.

This followed a period of intense scrutiny and Infantino’s controversial plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investors. 

The prediction markets reacted swiftly to these developments, with the “Yes” price for Infantino being ousted before the end of the year slumping to just 19¢ immediately after the summit in Rabat. It was as high as 35¢ prior to the meeting, and had peaked at 53¢ back on July 20th.

The current price has settled at 17¢, even after UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asian Football Confederation penned an open letter accusing the President of breaking trust. However, there remains plenty of opposition to Infantino’s reign, particularly among three of the four most influential FIFA confederations and former players.

Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction market apps.

The Story So Far: The Rise and Potential Fall of Infantino

Infantino was elected as FIFA President on February 26th, 2016, following his pledge to purge the organization of corruption. 

This followed the departure of Sepp Blatter, who was forced to resign and banned in 2015 amid accusations of financial mismanagement and ethics breaches. Both he and Michel Platini (who was President of UEFA at the time and also banned) have since been cleared of all corruption charges.

However, Infantino has continued to court controversy during his reign. He and FIFA were accused of profiteering during the recent World Cup by creating a standalone resale platform for tickets and charging up to 30% on both buyers and sellers.

Then came the President’s plans to sell stakes in future FIFA competitions to private investors. This would see total stakes of up to 20% sold off via the FIFA Forward Enterprise platform, creating an instant capital yield of up to $4.2 billion. A large proportion of this capital would be distributed among the different confederations.

Infantino says that he has now scrapped the plan amid the backlash, which included UEFA’s threat to boycott all future World Cups and several internal revolts. Arsene Wenger and Luis Figo have both fiercely opposed the plan, while Infantino’s senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro also resigned.

Did you know?

Did you know?

Our exclusive Polymarket promo code, CORG, will earn you a $20 trading bonus when you sign up to Polymarket and make a $10 deposit.

Odds on Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31st, 2026

“Gianni Infantino Out by December 31st” | “Yes” at 17¢ | 16% Chance

After scrapping his private investment plans, Infantino also issued a formal apology to the FIFA Management Board in Rabat. The President has leveraged his strong support in the African Confederation, too, which was key to him securing the top job initially more than a decade ago.

Infantino’s position has undoubtedly been fortified, which is why there’s now just a 16% chance of him leaving his role prior to December 31st, 2026. However, the newly adjusted price of 17¢ also offers a much higher potential upside, while creating a longer window in which you’re able to trade profitably.

The continued and entrenched opposition offered by UEFA, CONCACAF, and the AFC is also noteworthy. These confederations account for 155 of all 211 FIFA votes (73.45%), and will be highly influential in determining the outcome of the next Presidential election on March 17th, 2027.

Infantino will stand for re-election if he remains in post, and currently appears unlikely to receive the 106 votes required to win. So, it seems inevitable will be removed from his position within the next seven months, while key FIFA members and high-profile officials like Luis Figo continue to publicly withdraw their support in the near-term.

A growing number of current and former players are also uniting against Infantino. Mikael Silvestre, who sits on Fifa’s Players’ Voice Panel, recently issued a statement on X which stated that “change is necessary” and “Enough is Enough!”. This sentiment has been echoed by Emmanuel Petit, David James, and Lucy Bronze.

Even if Infantino holds on beyond December 31st, there remains scope for further price hikes and short-term volatility. So, there may be some value in buying “Yes” shares while they’re slightly underpriced, before looking to sell these in September (when deadlines loom for the 64-team World Cup proposal and the legal cutoff to force a date of no-confidence in Infantino).

Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup This Year?

“Will FIFA Sell World Cup Equity in 2026” | “Yes” at 2¢ | 1% Chance

This market opened on July 31st, shortly after an emboldened Infantino first revealed his plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions.

However, the significant global backlash and Infantino’s public climbdown has seen the outcome’s implied probability plummet to a nominal 1%. You can now buy “Yes” shares at just 2¢, but this is highly unlikely to deliver any kind of short or long-term return without a huge new twist or development. It would also represent a negative EV pick.

Sure, you can buy “No” shares at 99.7¢, with this outcome retaining a 99% probability. While this trade is almost certain to deliver a return, a $100 investment would yield an ROI of less than 0.8%.

This trade also delivers a negative EV, so your best option would be to avoid the market entirely and seek out more viable alternatives. 

The Last Word: Trading Infantino Markets on Polymarket

Trading “Yes” on Infantino being ousted as FIFA President by December 31st still offers value, especially at a current price of just 17¢.

The true probability of Infantino being removed or asked to resign is probably higher than this price implies, so buying shares now unlocks a positive EV and high potential upside ahead of September.

Regardless of your chosen Infantino markets, we’d urge you to follow the latest news and track price changes in real-time. This can help you make informed decisions and optimize the timing of your trades, while also identifying the markets to avoid. 

Keep your eyes peeled for new Infantino markets as they open too. Similarly, Polymarket may soon let you trade on Infantino’s potential successors, with CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani and Dariusz Mioduski among the early frontrunners.

Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10.