Infantino Odds and Predictions: Will He Leave By December 31st?

Gianni Infantino hit the headlines again earlier in September, confirming that he will stand for reelection as FIFA President in 2027. He has also said that he’s open to an independent governance review of FIFA during his tenure.

This follows a turbulent year for the 56-year-old. Infantino received intense scrutiny and sustained calls for his head after revealing controversial plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investors. He was subsequently given a vote of confidence following a crisis meeting in Morocco, during which he received “full support” from the organization’s senior leadership.

The prediction markets reacted swiftly to these developments, with the “Yes” price for Infantino being ousted before the end of the year slumping to just 19¢ immediately after the summit in Rabat. It was as high as 35¢ prior to the meeting, and had peaked at 53¢ back on July 20th.

The current price has dropped to 11¢, even after UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asian Football Confederation penned an open letter accusing the President of breaking trust. However, there remains plenty of opposition to Infantino’s reign, particularly among three of the four most influential FIFA confederations and former players.

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The Story So Far: The Rise and Potential Fall of Infantino

Infantino was elected as FIFA President on February 26th, 2016, following his pledge to purge the organization of corruption. 

This followed the departure of Sepp Blatter, who was forced to resign and banned in 2015 amid accusations of financial mismanagement and ethics breaches. Both he and Michel Platini (who was President of UEFA at the time and also banned) have since been cleared of all corruption charges.

However, Infantino has continued to court controversy during his reign. He and FIFA were accused of profiteering during the recent World Cup by creating a standalone resale platform for tickets and charging both buyers and sellers up to 30%.

Then came the President’s plans to sell stakes in future FIFA competitions to private investors. This would see total stakes of up to 20% sold off via the FIFA Forward Enterprise platform, creating an instant capital yield of up to $4.2 billion. A large proportion of this capital would be distributed among the different confederations.

Infantino says that he has now scrapped the plan amid the backlash, which included UEFA’s threat to boycott all future World Cups and several internal revolts. Arsene Wenger and Luis Figo have both fiercely opposed the plan, while Infantino’s senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro also resigned amid the fallout.

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Odds on Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31st, 2026

“Gianni Infantino Out by December 31st” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 11% Chance

After scrapping his private investment plans, Infantino also issued a formal apology to the FIFA Management Board in Rabat. The President has leveraged his strong support in the African Confederation, too, which was key to him securing the top job initially more than a decade ago.

Infantino’s position has undoubtedly been fortified, which is why there’s now just a 11% chance of him leaving his role prior to December 31st, 2026. However, the newly adjusted price of 11¢ also offers a much higher potential upside, while there’s still an extended window in which you’re able to trade profitably.

The continued and entrenched opposition offered by UEFA, CONCACAF, and the AFC is also noteworthy. These confederations account for 155 of all 211 FIFA votes (73.45%), and will be highly influential in determining the outcome of the next Presidential election on March 17th, 2027.

Despite this, Infantino will now definitely stand for re-election if he remains in post. This may encourage his opponents to renew their efforts to oust him in the short-term, as key FIFA members and high-profile officials like Luis Figo continue to publicly withdraw their support.

A growing number of current and former players are uniting against Infantino. Mikael Silvestre, who sits on Fifa’s Players’ Voice Panel, recently issued a statement on X which stated that “change is necessary” and “Enough is Enough!”. This sentiment has been echoed by Emmanuel Petit, David James, and Lucy Bronze.

Even if Infantino holds on beyond December 31st, there remains scope for further price hikes and short-term volatility. So, there may be some value in buying “Yes” shares while they’re heavily discounted, before looking to sell these later in the year.

UEFA and CONCACAF’s Most Recent Demands – And How They May Affect the Infantino Odds

Infantino’s position may also be weakened by recent demands from UEFA and CONCACAF. These confederations sent a formal letter to Infantino demanding a one-off payment of $10 million to each of FIFA’s 211 members. This would trigger a total payout of $2.1 billion.

In addition to potentially compromising Infantino’s standing, it could place a huge drain on FIFA’s cash reserves. The organization boosted their reserves to $6 billion after the World Cup, and UEFA is leading the charge to ensure this is distributed fairly among all member federations.

Although Infantino is reportedly willing to accept these demands, the impact on FIFA’s long-term capital budget could be significant. This may see a revamped or watered-down version of Infantino’s FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE) proposal introduced.

What’s more, the proposal will most likely receive more backing within FIFA if the organization’s budget is compromised.

UEFA is also actively preparing a criminal complaint against Infantino for financial mismanagement regarding the FFE sell-off deal. This could authorize the discovery of evidence that potentially makes Infantino’s position untenable. So, it will be interesting to see how these various scenarios plays out between now and the end of the year.

Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup This Year?

“Will FIFA Sell World Cup Equity in 2026” | “Yes” at 1.7¢ | 2% Chance

If FIFA does introduce a modified FFE proposal, this increases the likelihood that shares will be sold in high-profile competitions. This includes the World Cup, which will generate the greatest level of demand among private equity investors.

You can also buy and sell shares in FIFA selling World Cup equity in 2026. This particular market opened on July 31st, shortly after an emboldened Infantino first revealed his plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions.

However, the significant global backlash and Infantino’s public climbdown drove the outcome’s implied probability down to a nominal 1% by early September. The “Yes” price also sunk to 1.8¢, creating a huge theoretical upside but one that’s highly unlikely to be realized.

The price has fluctuated in the previous six weeks. The biggest movements followed the most recent demands from UEFA and CONCACAF, which may also inspire further hikes in the coming weeks. Currently, you can snap up “Yes” shares at just 1.7¢. There’s also a nominal 1% chance of this outcome occurring.

Overall, I recommend that you avoid buying “Yes” shares in this market. Not only does the outcome remain unlikely, but price growth is capped by the sheer weight of opposition against the plans. English FA Chair Debbie Hewitt is also demanding full documentation pertaining to the FFE proposal, creating a further roadblock with so little time in the year remaining.

Sure, you can buy “No” shares at 99.3¢, with this outcome retaining a 98% probability. While this trade is statistically likely to deliver a return, an investment would yield an ROI of approximately 0.7049%.

This trade would require you to commit your capital for nearly three months, too. So, your best option is to avoid the market entirely and seek out more viable alternatives. 

The Last Word: Trading Infantino Markets on Polymarket

Trading “Yes” on Infantino being ousted as FIFA President by December 31st still offers modest value, especially at a current price of just 11¢.

The true probability of Infantino being removed or asked to resign is probably slightly higher than this price implies, so buying shares now unlocks a positive EV and high potential upside ahead of the autumn.

Regardless of your chosen Infantino markets, we’d urge you to follow the latest news and track price changes in real-time. This can help you make informed decisions and optimize the timing of your trades, while also identifying the markets to avoid. 

Keep your eyes peeled for new Infantino markets as they open too. Similarly, Polymarket may soon let you trade on Infantino’s potential successors, with CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani and Dariusz Mioduski among the early frontrunners.

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