Infantino Odds and Predictions: Will He Leave By December 31st?

Gianni Infantino hit the headlines again earlier in September, confirming that he will stand for reelection as FIFA President in 2027. He has also said that he’s open to an independent governance review of FIFA during his tenure.

This follows a turbulent year for the 56-year-old. Infantino received intense scrutiny and sustained calls for his head after revealing controversial plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investors. He was subsequently given a vote of confidence following a crisis meeting in Morocco, during which he received “full support” from the organization’s senior leadership.

The prediction markets reacted swiftly to these developments, with the “Yes” price for Infantino being ousted before the end of the year slumping to just 19¢ immediately after the summit in Rabat. It was as high as 35¢ prior to the meeting, and had peaked at 53¢ back on July 20th.

The current price has dropped to just 3.9¢, even after UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asian Football Confederation penned an open letter accusing the President of breaking trust. However, there remains plenty of opposition to Infantino’s reign, particularly among three of the four most influential FIFA confederations and former players.

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The Story So Far: The Rise and Potential Fall of Infantino

Infantino was elected as FIFA President on February 26th, 2016, following his pledge to purge the organization of corruption. 

This followed the departure of Sepp Blatter, who was forced to resign and banned in 2015 amid accusations of financial mismanagement and ethics breaches. Both he and Michel Platini (who was President of UEFA at the time and also banned) have since been cleared of all corruption charges.

However, Infantino has continued to court controversy during his reign. He and FIFA were accused of profiteering during the recent World Cup by creating a standalone resale platform for tickets and charging both buyers and sellers up to 30%.

Then came the President’s plans to sell stakes in future FIFA competitions to private investors. This would see total stakes of up to 20% sold off via the FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE) platform, creating an instant capital yield of up to $4.2 billion. A large proportion of this capital would be distributed among the different confederations.

Infantino says that he has now scrapped the plan amid the backlash, which included UEFA’s threat to boycott all future World Cups and several internal revolts. Arsene Wenger and Luis Figo have both fiercely opposed the plan, while Infantino’s senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro also resigned amid the fallout.

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Odds on Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31st, 2026

“Gianni Infantino Out by December 31st” | “Yes” at 3.9¢ | 3% Chance

After scrapping his private investment plans, Infantino also issued a formal apology to the FIFA Management Board in Rabat. The President has leveraged his strong support in the African Confederation, too, which was key to him securing the top job initially more than a decade ago.

Infantino’s position has undoubtedly been fortified, which is why there’s now just a 3% chance of him leaving his role prior to December 31st, 2026. However, the newly adjusted price of 3.9¢ also offers a much higher potential upside, while there’s still an extended window in which you’re able to trade profitably.

The continued and entrenched opposition offered by UEFA, CONCACAF, and the AFC is also noteworthy. These confederations account for 155 of all 211 FIFA votes (73.45%), and will be highly influential in determining the outcome of the next Presidential election on March 17th, 2027.

Despite this, Infantino will now definitely stand for re-election if he remains in post. This may encourage his opponents to renew their efforts to oust him in the short-term, as key FIFA members and high-profile officials like Luis Figo continue to publicly withdraw their support.

A growing number of current and former players are uniting against Infantino. Mikael Silvestre, who sits on Fifa’s Players’ Voice Panel, recently issued a statement on X which stated that “change is necessary” and “Enough is Enough!”. This sentiment has been echoed by Emmanuel Petit, David James, and Lucy Bronze.

Even if Infantino holds on beyond December 31st, there remains scope for further price hikes and short-term volatility. So, there may be some value in buying “Yes” shares while they’re heavily discounted, before looking to sell these later in the year. However, this remains a high-risk prediction, and one that’s increasingly reliant on price fluctuations rather than Infantino actually being removed.

UEFA and CONCACAF’s Most Recent Demands – And How They May Affect the Infantino Odds

Infantino’s position may also be weakened by recent demands from UEFA and CONCACAF. These confederations sent a formal letter to Infantino demanding a one-off payment of $10 million to each of FIFA’s 211 members. This would trigger a total payout of $2.1 billion.

However, Infantino has agreed in principle to the funding increase. He has even offered more than UEFA and CONCACAF originally demanded over a longer period. Although the release of the funds is caveated and yet to be formalized, it would equate to a $6.35 billion total football development plan for the 2027–2030 cycle.

It has been argued that UEFA and CONCACAF’s demands are part of the ongoing escalation against Infantino’s leadership. However, the response also highlights Infantino’s continued charm offensive as he aims for re-election in 2027.

Infantino’s odds of leaving his post have diminished in the wake of his more conciliatory approach. The probability of him being removed was 11% as recently as October 7th, but it has contracted by eight percentage points in just three weeks.

Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup This Year?

“Will FIFA Sell World Cup Equity in 2026” | “Yes” at 1.3¢ | 1% Chance

Before Infantino made a counter offer to UEFA and CONCACAF, it was thought that any additional pressure on FIFA’s cash reserves could contribute to renewed FFE proposals.

In this instance, the likelihood that shares will be sold in high-profile competitions increases. This includes the World Cup, which will generate the greatest level of demand among private equity investors.

You can also buy and sell shares in FIFA selling World Cup equity in 2026. This particular market opened on July 31st, shortly after an emboldened Infantino first revealed his plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions.

The price has fluctuated in the previous eight weeks. The biggest movements followed the most recent demands from UEFA and CONCACAF, which may also inspire further hikes in the coming weeks. Currently, you can snap up “Yes” shares at just 1.3¢. There’s also a nominal 1% chance of this outcome occurring.

Overall, I recommend that you avoid buying “Yes” shares in this market. Not only does the outcome remain unlikely, but price growth is capped by the sheer weight of opposition against the plans. English FA Chair Debbie Hewitt is also demanding full documentation pertaining to the FFE proposal, creating a further roadblock with so little time in the year remaining.

Sure, you can buy “No” shares at 99.6¢, with this outcome retaining a 99% probability. While this trade is statistically likely to deliver a return, an investment would yield an ROI of approximately 0.40%.

This trade would also require you to commit your capital for approximately two months. So, your best option is to avoid the market entirely and seek out more viable alternatives. 

The Last Word: Trading Infantino Markets on Polymarket

Trading “Yes” on Infantino being ousted as FIFA President by December 31st still offers modest value, especially at a current price of just 3.9¢.

The true probability of Infantino being removed or asked to resign is probably slightly higher than this price implies, so buying shares now arguably unlocks a positive EV and high potential upside ahead of the winter. However, this remains a long shot and is increasingly unlikely to occur, so you’ll be looking to trade potential price movements in the near-term.

Regardless of your chosen Infantino markets, we’d urge you to follow the latest news and track price changes in real-time. This can help you make informed decisions and optimize the timing of your trades, while also identifying the markets to avoid. 

Keep your eyes peeled for new Infantino markets as they open too. Similarly, you can now trade the identity of the next FIFA president on Polymarket. Infantino is the market frontrunner with a win probability of 76%, while Claudio Tapia, Ramon Vega, and CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani are also in contention.

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