Infantino Odds and Predictions: Will He Leave By December 31st?

Gianni Infantino will continue as FIFA President for the time being after a crisis meeting in Morocco, where he received “full support” from the organization’s senior leadership.

This followed a period of intense scrutiny and Infantino’s controversial plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investors. 

The prediction markets reacted swiftly to these developments, with the “Yes” price for Infantino being ousted before the end of the year slumping to just 19¢ immediately after the summit in Rabat. It was as high as 35¢ prior to the meeting, and had peaked at 53¢ back on July 20th.

The current price has settled at 22¢, after UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asian Football Confederation penned an open letter accusing the President of breaking trust. So, there remains plenty of opposition to Infantino’s reign, particularly among three of the four most influential FIFA confederations.

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The Story So Far: The Rise and Potential Fall of Infantino

Infantino was elected as FIFA President on February 26th, 2016, following his pledge to purge the organization of corruption. 

This followed the departure of Sepp Blatter, who was forced to resign and banned in 2015 amid accusations of financial mismanagement and ethics breaches. Both he and Michel Platini (who was President of UEFA at the time and also banned) have since been cleared of all corruption charges.

However, Infantino has continued to court controversy during his reign. He and FIFA were accused of profiteering during the recent World Cup by creating a standalone resale platform for tickets and charging up to 30% on both buyers and sellers.

Then came the President’s plans to sell stakes in future FIFA competitions to private investors. This would see total stakes of up to 20% sold off via the FIFA Forward Enterprise platform, creating an instant capital yield of up to $4.2 billion. A large proportion of this capital would be distributed among the different confederations.

Infantino says that he has now scrapped the plan amid the backlash, which included UEFA’s threat to boycott all future World Cups and several internal revolts. Arsene Wenger has fiercely opposed the plan, while Infantino’s senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro also resigned.

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Odds on Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31st, 2026

“Gianni Infantino Out by December 31st” | “Yes” at 22¢ | 22% Chance

After scrapping his private investment plans, Infantino also issued a formal apology to the FIFA Management Board in Rabat last week. The President also leveraged his strong support in the African Confederation, which was key to him securing the top job initially more than a decade ago.

Infantino’s position has undoubtedly been fortified, which is why there’s now just a 22% chance of him leaving his role prior to December 31st, 2026. However, the newly adjusted price of 22¢ also offers a much higher potential upside, while creating a longer window in which you’re able to trade profitably.

The continued and entrenched opposition offered by UEFA, CONCACAF, and the AFC is also noteworthy. These confederations account for 155 of all 211 FIFA votes (73.45%), and will be highly influential in determining the outcome of the next Presidential election on March 17th, 2027.

Infantino will stand for re-election if he remains in post, and currently appears unlikely to receive the 106 votes required to win. So, it seems inevitable will be removed from his position within the next seven months, while key FIFA members and high-profile officials like Luis Figo continue to publicly withdraw their support in the near-term.

Even if Infantino holds on beyond December 31st, there remains scope for further price hikes and short-term volatility. 

So, there may be some value in buying “Yes” shares while they’re slightly underpriced, before looking to sell these in September (when deadlines loom for the 64-team World Cup proposal and the legal cutoff to force a date of no-confidence in Infantino).

Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup This Year?

“Will FIFA Sell World Cup Equity in 2026” | “Yes” at 1¢ | 1% Chance

This market opened on July 31st, shortly after an emboldened Infantino first revealed his plans to sell stakes in FIFA competitions.

However, the significant global backlash and Infantino’s public climbdown has seen the outcome’s implied probability plummet to a nominal 1%. You can now buy “Yes” shares at just 1¢, but this is highly unlikely to deliver any kind of short or long-term return without a huge new twist or development.

Sure, you can buy “No” shares at 99.6¢, with this outcome retaining a 99% probability. While this trade is almost certain to deliver a return, a $100 investment would yield an ROI of less than 0.8%.

This trade also delivers a negative EV, so your best option would be to avoid the market entirely and seek out more viable alternatives. 

Will Donald Trump Praise Infantino This August?

“Will Trump Praise Infantino in August?” | “No” at 62¢ | 29% Chance

If you are interested in alternative Infantino markets, you can also buy “Yes” or “No” shares on whether the FIFA President will be praised by Donald Trump in August.

The pair have a longstanding friendship, with Infantino having awarded Trump FIFA’s inaugural ‘Peace Prize” back in January. The US President is also thought to have contacted Infantino directly in a bid to overturn Folarin Balogun’s red card for team USA during the World Cup.

Despite this, the White House has initially sought to decouple itself from the FIFA investment plan, not least because of the proposed involvement of Joshua Kushner’s private equity firm. Joshua is the brother of government official Jared Kushner, so there’s a huge conflict of interest here.

However, there’s a huge pricing discrepancy in the market at present, with “Yes” shares priced at 71¢ and “No” shares valued at 63¢. This creates a negative EV and requires you to pay a 34% premium just to trade, so the market should be avoided for now until the pricing has been corrected.

This is a highly time-sensitive market, but you may be able to find value if the “No” price drops below 50¢ before August 31st. Trump’s self-serving nature means that he’s likely to offer Infantino public backing, while the perceived failure of the private equity plan may also create further distance between the pair.

The Last Word: Trading Infantino Markets on Polymarket

Trading “Yes” on Infantino being ousted as FIFA President by December 31st still offers significant value, especially at a current price of just 22¢.

The true probability of Infantino being removed or asked to resign is higher than this price implies, so buying shares now unlocks a positive EV and high potential upside.

Regardless of your chosen Infantino markets, we’d urge you to follow the latest news and track price changes in real-time. This can help you make informed decisions and optimize the timing of your trades, while also identifying the markets to avoid. 

Keep your eyes peeled for new Infantino markets as they open too. Similarly, Polymarket may soon let you trade on Infantino’s potential successors, with CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani and Dariusz Mioduski among the early frontrunners.

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