2026 Emmys Predictions Markets: Best Odds & Value Picks

The 2026 Emmy nominations are in! The biggest names in television are now nervously waiting to see whether they will be recognized for their on-screen performances. Medical drama The Pitt leads the way with 25 nominations, closely followed by Hacks with 24. 

Prediction markets on Polymarket have exploded over the past week, with odds available for 22 of the awards presented during the live broadcast. Is it worth buying “Yes” on Rhea Seehorn, and is Matthew Rhys good value for money? I’ve found the best-value picks from various prediction markets, perfect for lovers of the small screen.

We have an exclusive Polymarket bonus (CORG), and you can earn $50 after you sign up and deposit $20. If you want other options for betting on The Emmys, we’ve covered the top entertainment and culture prediction markets.

Outstanding Comedy Series Odds

This was the first market to grab my attention. While Hacks has the highest probability (55%), Widow’s Bay is hot on its heels (43%). You can “Buy” Hacks, the dark comedy series anchored by multi-Emmy winner Jean Smith, at 55.5¢. This is compared to 44¢ for Widow’s Bay, the horror comedy set in New England. 

However, I’ve seen multiple articles talking up a clean sweep for Widow’s Bay in recent days. The Apple TV rookie was a hit among critics and general audiences, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see its odds drop in the build-up to the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards.

 “Widow’s Bay” | “Yes” at 43¢ | 43% Chance

Other candidates in this category at Polymarket include:

• The Bear | 1% chance | Yes 1¢
• Only Murders in the Building | 2% chance | Yes 2.8¢
• Margot’s Got Money Troubles | 2% chance | Yes 3.1¢
• Nobody Wants This | 1% chance | Yes 2.5¢

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series predictions

Following nominations in years gone by for her performances in Cooper’s Bar and Better Call Saul, it looks almost nailed on that Rhea Seehorn will finally win her first Emmy. Polymarket traders give her an 81% chance of collecting the award for “Outstanding lead actress in a drama series” for her role as Carol Sturka in Pluribus. It’s one of 18 nominations for the post-apocalyptic sci-fi series. 

The Diplomat’s Keri Russel is Seehorn’s closest rival. However, Russell’s odds have grown over recent weeks, and her probability now sits at just 12%. However, the former Golden Globe winner may still be worth “buying” at 12.7¢, even if you sell before the ceremony at the Peacock Theatre in Los Angeles.

 “Keri Russell” | “Yes” at 12.7¢ | 12% Chance

Other actresses available at Polymarket are: 

• Zendaya – Euphoria | 7% chance | Yes 7.8¢
• Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age | 1% chance | Yes 1.7¢
• Chase Infiniti – The Testaments | 1% chance | Yes 1.3¢

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Markets

I’ve rarely seen a candidate in an Emmy’s prediction market with a 93% chance more than two months before the winner is announced. That’s the case for Noah Wyle, despite Mark Ruffalo and Gary Oldman also being nominated. 

It would be a consecutive win in this category for Wyle, after winning this award for his role as the hard-nosed Dr. Robby in The Pitt in 2025. The former Golden Globe winner is also known for performances in ER and The Red Line, and his probability has grown from 78% on July 10. 

Ruffalo, Oldman, and Sterling K. Brown are all given a 3% chance. However, the “No” prices of between 97.6¢ and 98.5¢ show just how much of a shock it would be if Wyle didn’t pick up the award.

Other 2026 Emmys Markets Worth Following

The good thing about Emmys markets at Polymarket is that there are almost endless options. Here are some of the other markets I suggest keeping a close eye on. 

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

I was interested to check out the “Outstanding limited or anthology series” market at Polymarket. That’s not just because Beef, one of my personal favorites, is in the running. It’s DTF St. Louis that currently leads the way. You can “Buy” the dark comedy mini-series starring Linda Cardellini, David Harbor, and Jason Bateman at 53¢. 

The HBO favorite’s probability has dropped from 63% on July 12. However, it’s a similar story for Beef. The Netflix comedy drama had a 51% chance in mid-July, but the 36¢ “Yes” price remains a good value. 

It could be a big night for Carey Mulligan, who is attracting major interest from traders. The Brit, a three-time Oscar nominee, has a 44% chance of collecting the “Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie” award.

Outstanding Variety Series

With The Pitt and Hacks dominating elsewhere, this market features the best talk show hosts in the US. You can throw a blanket over Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Late Show With Stephen Colbert. Colbert and Jon Stewart are the only winners of this award since 2003.

That’s why buying The Late Show at 15¢ may be worthwhile, especially given that he had a 50% chance on July 12.

Using Other Awards Ceremonies to Help Make Predictions

There is often a clear correlation between the Emmys and other awards ceremonies. Some even share the same members, giving traders insight into who may walk away with a new addition to the nightstand. 

2026 The Golden Globes

• Noah Wyle (Best Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama)
• Rhea Seeborn (Best Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama)
• Jean Smart (Best Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy)
• The Pitt (Best Television Series – Drama)

2026 Critic’s Choice Awards

• Noah Wyle (Best Actor in a Drama Series)
• Rhea Seeborn (Best Actress in a Drama Series)
• Katherine LaNasa (Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series)
• Jean Smart (Best Actress in a Comedy Series)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live! (Best Talk Show)
• Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (Best Variety Series)
• The Pitt (Best Drama Series)

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