Century Casinos Stock Story Requires Patience

Following a rough 2024, shares of Century Casinos (NASDAQ: CNTY) are off nearly 7% to start 2025, potentially indicating the stock’s redemption story will require patience from investors.

In a note out after the close of US markets on Tuesday, Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial lowered fourth-quarter and first-half margin assumptions for Century, citing a slower-than-expected ramp-up period at the operator’s Caruthersville, Mo. casino hotel and “mis-modeled seasonality” at Nugget Sparks in Reno.

Looking beyond Q4 earnings, we still see a path back to >$5/share with CNTY currently trading at a ~15% yield on our mostly unchanged 2026 estimated free cash flow (vs. ~10% peer average),” observes Stantial.

Stantial reiterated a “buy” rating and $5 price target on the stock, implying upside of about 67% from Tuesday’s close. The gaming stock briefly traded above $5 on November 26 before giving up those gains. It currently resides at its lowest level since October.

Missouri Could Support Century Casinos Stock

Century acquired the Nugget Sparks casino in early 2022, marking the operator’s initial foray into Nevada. That same year, the company also bought the operating rights to the Rocky Gap Casino Resort in Flinstone, Md.

“Conversely, Cape Girardeau & Caruthersville were both nicely ahead following recent hotel & boat-to-land expansions, though our anecdotal checks suggest potential short-term margin noise at Caruthersville,” adds Stantial.

Century purchased the Missouri casinos in 2019 and has allocated cash to sprucing up the venues, including adding a hotel in Cape Girardeau and bringing the Caruthersville venue ashore following a long stint as a riverboat casino.

The Cape Girardeau casino has performed well since the debut of the hotel. Specific to Century Casino Caruthersville, history shows favorable economics, and in some cases, improved earnings for casinos that executed the boat-to-land move.

Poland a Potential Catalyst for Century Casinos Stock

In terms of potential 2025 catalysts for Century Casinos stock, Stantial reiterated a familiar one: the possibility of the operator selling some or all of its two-thirds stake in Casinos Poland. Talk to that effect has been around for four years and was delayed due to Russia’s 2021 invasion of Ukraine, which shares a border with Poland.

We believe completion of the most recent re-licensing cycle allows for a cleaner process with management recently citing multiple interested buyers,” said Stantial.

Stantial notes Century could fetch $25 million to $40 million in a transaction involving its Poland assets, which would be used to pare debt.