Billy Walters: ‘If Prediction Markets Existed 25 Years Ago, I’d Be Worth $100 Billion’

Billy Walters was so good at sports betting that most sportsbooks in Las Vegas cut him off at the peak of his career in the 1990s and 2000s. If sports prediction markets had been around back then, the notorious sports bettor and convicted insider trader says he’d be worth billions.

Appearing this week at BetBash at Circa Las Vegas, a sports gambling network conference, Walters sat on a panel where he divulged his opinions on prediction markets.

While prediction markets were around back in his sports gambling heyday, the financial exchanges did not start facilitating the buying and selling of sports events until recently.

“If prediction markets existed 25 years ago, then I’d be worth a hundred billion dollars.” Billy Walters told delegates.

Patrick Everson of Vegas Insider was first to report on Walters’ prediction markets comment.

The Legendary Sports Bettor Who Beat the House for Decades

Walters was among the first bettors in Las Vegas to utilize computer programs to beat the bookies. He established a private betting syndicate that structured betting like a major hedge fund.

Walters’ business implemented bankroll architecture based on data modeling and line shopping, using advanced computer algorithms with a team of mathematicians and statisticians to exploit the betting lines.

At his peak, Walters says he was orchestrating $20 million or more on a typical college football Saturday, with bets on 150 different games through 1,600 wagering accounts.

Walters’ Statement Might Hold Weight

Sportsbooks routinely limit or ban professional sports bettors and regular winners like Walters. If another option, like prediction markets, had been around, Walters could have theoretically taken his business there.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins acknowledged this week during the firm’s second-quarter earnings call that prediction markets are where whales are betting.

“We continue to see only about 1% customer overlap between our sportsbook and the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states. Based on internal analysis, we estimate that 80% to 90% of prediction market consumer volume in sportsbook states comes from professional betting syndicates and institutional traders,” Robins said.

Because prediction markets operate as peer-to-peer exchanges, rather than pitting bettors against the house, traders are less likely to face limits.

Prediction markets also generally don’t prohibit sophisticated trading strategies, as complex positions can help deepen liquidity and attract more activity to the exchanges.

Walters’ Insider Trading Conviction

Walters used his sports betting profits to found a conglomerate of sorts in Las Vegas. The Walters Group held interests in car dealerships, rental car franchises, commercial real estate, and the Bali Hai Golf Club.

Walters couldn’t turn his sports-betting genius into trades on Wall Street, but he certainly found another way to play the market with traditional stocks.

Like his sports gambling, his business mindset was always looking for an edge. Walters found it in Dean Foods, after the board’s chairman, who was indebted to Walters, tipped him off, allowing him to gain $32 million in profits and avoid $11 million in losses by trading the public company.

The scandal gained national attention after golfer Phil Mickelson, a longtime close friend of Walters, was found to have made $2 million by trading Dean Foods. Mickelson was never charged in the case but agreed to forfeit his profits.

President Donald Trump commuted Walters’ sentence in 2021. Walters claims Steve Wynn lobbied Trump to refuse a pardon.