Bain: Full House Stock Can More Than Double

Shares of Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL) are off 43.43% over the past year, but the regional casino stock could deliver upside for investors provided it executes at its marquee casinos in Colorado and Illinois.

In a note out earlier this week, Texas Capital analyst David Bain tagged Full House with a “buy” rating and a $6 price target, implying the stock can more than double from its current handle around $2.50. A significant portion of that bullish outlook rests on the operator getting things right with the permanent iteration of the American Place Casino in Waukegan, Illinois.

Full House, which has been operating a temporary version of American Place for three years, broke ground on the permanent version of the casino hotel last month. That may be a sign that the venue, which features 900 slot machines, 40 table games, a poker room, and a sportsbook, is making progress towards its ultimate goal following years of legal challenges by a tribal competitor.

American Place Could Boost Full House Stock

American Place is integral to Full House’s long-term growth plans. Several years ago, CEO Dan Lee said American Place will be larger than the operator’s entire portfolio in aggregate.

Located a stone’s throw from Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport and just an hour from Milwaukee, American Place possesses enviable location. That’s likely one reason analysts view the property as having the potential to boost the operator’s EBITDA. Bain says Full House’s 2029 EBITDA could be approximately 200% above 2024 levels, assuming the permanent American Place opens in the second half of 2027 or in early 2028.

“Resulting per-share valuation should be multifold higher with admitted execution runway,” observes the Texas Capital analyst.

A wildcard for Full House stock is interest rates. As Bain points out, the operator carries more than $450 million in long-term debt, or nearly 5x its market capitalization, at a rate of 8.25%. That implies the gaming company would benefit from easing by the Federal Reserve, but it’s widely believed the central bank has limited scope for rate cuts this year.

Don’t Forget Colorado

In assessing the long-term potential of Full House stock, the Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colo. must be included in the equation.

That venue, named for the French Alps community near the Italy and Switzerland borders, opened in late 2023 and is the most palatial casino hotel in the Cripple Creek market. A bull thesis on Full House rests on American Place and Chamonix acting as long-term earnings drivers for the company.

“Full House’s $250 million investment in Cripple Creek/Chamonix is the largest for a casino in Cripple Creek. Should Chamonix not meet intermediate-term expectations, it could impede the shares from reaching our price target,” concludes Bain.