Full House Stock Surges After Analyst Says Shares Can More Than Double

Posted on: May 6, 2025, 05:20h. 

Last updated on: May 6, 2025, 05:20h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More

Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

• Gaming stock has significant, long-term potential, says analyst
• Colorado, Illinois casinos could be catalysts

Shares of Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL) rallied in Tuesday’s after-hours session after an analyst said the ailing casino stock could more than double.

In initiating coverage of the regional casino operator, Texas Capital Securities analyst David Bain rates Full House a “buy” with a $7 price target, or more than double the stock’s $3.07 closing price today. That bullish outlook arrives with the gaming stock down 42.08% over the past 90 days — a slide the analyst believes was triggered in large part by investors misunderstanding the operator’s capital needs and timeline for the permanent version of the American Place Casino in Waukegan, Ill.

FLL’s CY25E/CY26E consensus earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) growth is highest of regional peers,” observes Bain. “We believe recent capital markets volatility drove outsized stock price disruption as investors misunderstood FLL’s timeline/need for final permanent AP funding, creating a near-term stock buying opportunity.”

Full House stock has shed a quarter of its value this year as volatility in the corporate debt market sparked concerns about the operator’s potential needs to raise capital for the $400 million American Place. However, Bain points out that permanent financing needs for the Illinois gaming venue won’t arrive until the first half of next year, the operator has non-equity financing options, and if worst comes to worst, the company can ask the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) for an extension to continue running The Temporary at American Place.

Positive Signs Emerging for Full House Stock

Another reason that shares of Full House are mired in an extended slump are investor concerns about performance at the Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colo.

“Win per attendee, which was below market average last year, averaged 13% higher than the state average in 1Q25, demonstrating successful database building and strong location/demographic, in our view, despite American Place’s current temporary structure,” notes Bain. “At Chamonix, checks cite recent elimination of several non-revenue generating cost items and the beginnings of an awareness campaign into the upcoming seasonal months.”

Chamonix has a chance to be one of the more luxurious and highly-rated casino resorts in Colorado — potentially enviable status because Colorado is one the fastest-growing gaming markets in the US.

Full House Stock Has 5x Potential

With the stock currently sagging, calling for Full House to more than double is arguably audacious, but Bain lays out a multi-year scenario in which the shares could rise more than fivefold. That implies patience could be rewarded with the gaming stock.

“Current peer valuation multiples on our CY29E forecast, less expected net debt, equates to ~$17+ per share,” said the analyst. “Historical trading valuations and exit multiples would drive higher value, as would a successful license relocation of its Rising Star, in our view. We acknowledge the longer-term nature of the permanent American Place build and execution risk, though note strong return on investment visibility and management’s successful development experience.”

Rising Star refers to Full House’s Indiana casino hotel that it’s attempting to relocate to another part of that state.