VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL Week 4 Underdogs Deliver Big Day for Sportsbooks

Underdogs dominated the board in NFL Week 4, delivering a banner Sunday for Las Vegas sportsbooks as public favorites stumbled across key matchups.

Underdogs finished 8-4-2 against the spread (ATS) on Sunday, delivering five outright upsets and a profitable slate for house risk managers, according to OddsTrader.

Raiders Cover Again; Patriots Shock Bills

A developing storyline in the desert is the Las Vegas Raiders, who improved to 4-0 ATS on the season. The Raiders covered as 5-point underdogs at BetMGM at Allegiant Stadium, falling just short in a 30-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

However, the day’s most significant surprise came in Buffalo. There had been a lot of chatter about the Bills as Super Bowl betting favorites going into the game. Just one week after a dismal 35-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that raised questions about rookie quarterback Drake Maye—who fumbled twice, threw two interceptions, and was benched in the fourth quarter—the New England Patriots rebounded in dramatic fashion.

Taking on the undefeated Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium, the Patriots pulled off a 29-26 outright victory. Maye turned in a stellar performance, completing 22 of 37 passes for 269 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. While Maye posted a solid 97.7 traditional passer rating, his total QBR reached an elite 91.0 as he added 54 rushing yards on eight carries while taking only one sack.

Sportsbooks Welcome Buffalo Upset

“A positive day for the book,” said Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM.

Speaking during Sunday Night Football—where the Carolina Panthers added another upset by beating the Detroit Lions 32-26 as 3-point underdogs—Cipollini noted that heavy public backing on Detroit cost bettors dearly. The Lions at -3 accounted for 80% of BetMGM’s handle entering the weekend.

“The Titans and the Dolphins both covering was helpful, and the Bills losing broke up many of the common big-favorite parlay bets at the sportsbook,” Cipollini added.

Bettors did notch early wins in the International Series, led by the Indianapolis Colts’ 30-13 victory over the Washington Commanders in London as -225 moneyline favorites.

Caesars Reports Massive Sunday Hold

“The biggest result for the book came in Buffalo,” said Joey Feazel, head of football, Caesars Sportsbook. “In quite the dose of irony, the Patriots became the first team to hand the Bills a loss in their new stadium, taking down one of the most heavily bet parlay teams of the day. That upset circled the wagons for the book for the morning games.”

Feazel noted that the biggest wins for public bettors came on player props. Ravens running back Derrick Henry scoring his first touchdown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans, along with anytime touchdowns from Bills quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook, gave public bettors early cash-outs.

Elsewhere on the board, the L.A. Rams’ 24-20 comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants’ 36-24 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears’ 23-12 win over the New York Jets all yielded positive results for public action.

Futures Markets Shift Following Losses

Beyond Buffalo’s stumble, the Jaguars’ 22-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys’ 34-30 victory over the Houston Texans produced strong outcomes for the house.

“That made for a rare week where the book was happy to be a Cowboys fan,” Feazel said.

“The biggest drifters in the Super Bowl market were the Eagles, who moved from 16/1 to 22/1, and the Texans, who slid from 40/1 to 66/1 after disappointing performances. As is often the case, their franchise quarterbacks followed suit in the MVP market, with their odds lengthening alongside their teams’ championship prospects.”

Looking ahead to Monday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, BetMGM reports balanced action: The Saints (-120 moneyline) are drawing 49% of bets and 39% of the handle, with the Falcons (+105) taking the rest. Oddsmakers expect a tight, high-scoring divisional clash, setting the total at 47.5 with 66% of bets and 80% of total handle backing the Over.