VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Bills, Dolphins Emerge as Early NFL Betting Trends After Wild Week 2

If there’s a National Football League (NFL) betting trend emerging after Week 2, it’s this: bet against the Miami Dolphins, regardless of the spread, and back the Buffalo Bills – particularly the over, according to Bob Scucci, vice-president of Race and Sports Operations, Boyd Gaming Corp.

“Two of the biggest games so far this season have the Bills and the over, both in Week 1 and 2, and the Bills got there both times,” he said. “Bettors remember what teams made them money, and they’re going to keep riding them until they disappoint.”

Bettors Keep Riding Buffalo

The Bills opened their season beating the Texans in Houston 36-31, then followed that up with Thursday (Sept. 17) night’s big 41-31 home win over the Detroit Lions. Both games went over, and neither was particularly close.

The Bills play next Sunday (Sept. 27) at home against the 0-2 Los Angeles Chargers, with a 1 p.m. EDT start time.

“We’ve already gotten money on the Bills against the Chargers, and of course the fact the Chargers lost to the Raiders yesterday (Sept. 20) 26-14 doesn’t help matters for people wanting to bet against the Bills, so that’s all the more reason why we are seeing the money on the Bills. They’re going to be betting against the Dolphins every week too.”

Dolphins Becoming Weekly Fade

Like with other sportsbooks in Las Vegas, there’s big liability on the Las Vegas Raiders, coming off their big win in Los Angeles to go 2-0 on the season.

“I think the Raiders are probably overachieving and giving more than what most people expected,” he said. “There’s a lot of sentimental support in Las Vegas. They’re clearly our biggest liability on the futures-bet market to win the Super Bowl. People bet them at long odds for that. The first game (27-13 over Miami), people didn’t hold that into much account because it was the Dolphins, the worst team in the NFL. But still, they played pretty well.

“But after yesterday’s game, they’re going to draw a lot more support because they were pretty good underdogs (against the Chargers).”

Raiders Liability Keeps Growing

Bettors had a lot of ammunition after a lot of favorites won in Week 1, but yesterday (Sept. 20) was more in the sportsbooks’ favor, with a lot of upsets. Many teams with big expectations didn’t win or even cover the spread.

The biggest wins on the Boyd front were the Eagles not covering (24-20 over the Titans), the Saints winning outright as big underdogs (24-17 over the Ravens), and the Browns beating the Bucs (23-19). For those looking to make some money back, the afternoon was better, with the 49ers beating the Dolphins (35-13), the Seahawks beating the Cardinals (31-7), and the Cowboys beating the Commanders (37-20).

Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM, said going into yesterday’s (Sept. 20) games, after bettors had such a big weekend in Week 1, getting one of the Browns, Saints, Titans, and Dolphins “would really help the weekend … two of them covering would be helpful as well.”

Week 2 Flips Script

In the end, Week 1 and Week 2 could hardly have been more different, said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook.

“The book enjoyed a steady diet of low-scoring primetime games in Week 1, but Week 2 began with an all-you-can-eat touchdown buffet for bettors on Thursday night,” he said. “Seven of the eight most popular touchdown scorers cashed, and the only player who failed to score, DJ Moore, was refunded under Injury Protection.”

The big game for bettors at Caesars Sportsbook was Lions-Bills, while the best for the book was Vikings-Bears (a 9-3 Minnesota win in Chicago).

Touchdown Parlays Pay Big

“Sunday early games brought a sharp reversal,” said Feazel. “Underdogs and defenses came out swinging, offenses went quiet, and touchdowns were much harder to locate. In Week 1, it felt like everyone with a jersey found the end zone. This Sunday, even the end zone required a reservation.”

A $100 same-game parlay for Lions at Bills paid $50,000 (Josh Allen 1^st touchdown, Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown, James Cook anytime touchdown, Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown, Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown, Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown).