Trader: Little Interest in Canadian Politics Betting Markets — So Far

Posted on: January 31, 2025, 10:05h. 

Last updated on: January 31, 2025, 10:26h.

The CBC is reporting that a licensed Ontario iGaming operator is backing off after offering bettors an opportunity to place wagers on US President Donald Trump’s talk of annexing Canada.

According to media reports, licensed Ontario iGaming operator PowerPlay.com this week offered a betting market on the US annexing Canada, then took it down. (Image: PowerPlay.com)

According to the story, PowerPlay.com on Monday was offering odds on annexation, then took the bet down on Tuesday because of “compliance” concerns.

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, the provincial igaming regulator, told the CBC there weren’t any issues with the annexation betting market, considering it a “novelty event.”

Snap Ontario Election

BetVictor, meanwhile, is offering several markets on Canadian politics where Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is a strong betting favorite under “Prime Minister of Canada After Next Election,” at -1400. The Conservatives are the strong betting favorite to win the next election, at -2000 (the Liberals are at +700).

“We took two very small bets on this market; seems Canadians don’t seem keen or interested at the moment,” said Karl Molyneux, a trader at BetVictor.

“Governor” Trudeau

US President Trump has been making the annexation comments going back weeks, even calling Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “governor.” Trudeau’s Liberal Party has begun a leadership race after Trudeau announced earlier this month he is stepping down. The next Canadian federal election is scheduled for Oct. 20, 2025.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford called a snap February provincial election this week in large part to get a fresh mandate to deal with the Trump threat. FanDuel is offering a betting market on that race, with Ford’s Conservatives the favorite at -1500, followed by the Liberals at +900, and the NDP at +1500.

Mark Carney is the current odds-on favorite to replace Trudeau as federal Liberal leader at -750, followed by Chrystia Freeland (+390), at FanDuel.

Capitalizing on Social Media Trends

“It’s a tough one to comment on, as you would need to know the circumstances around why they offered the market, said Glen Hyslop, a BetVictor trader, about PowerPlay’s decision to pull its Trump betting market. “That is a question that only the operator in question can answer.”

Hyslop added that operators are “driven a lot more by social media and what’s trending than ever before, so when Trump commented that he wanted to make Canada the 51st state and it was trending all over the place, they possibly never really thought of the effects of putting up this market and the potential backlash it could cause.”

Polymarket Betting

Polymarket, the crypto prediction betting platform, has been all in on taking bets on Canadian politics, including on whether Canada will join the US as its 51st state before July.

As of Friday morning, punters gave that proposition a 3% chance of occurring on volume of $434,434.