Sorry Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Insiders Say Tom Brady Not Coming

Posted on: March 9, 2020, 08:30h. 

Last updated on: March 9, 2020, 10:24h.

The Las Vegas Raiders are considered longshots to land soon-to-be unrestricted free agent quarterback Tom Brady, as NFL insiders say the organization is happy with current starter Derek Carr.

Tom Brady Las Vegas Raiders odds
The Las Vegas Raiders need a Hail Mary to land Tom Brady. (Image: Maddie Meyer/Getty)

For the first time in his Hall of Fame career, the 42-year-old Brady will soon be on the market. The six-time Super Bowl winner has spent all of his 20 years in the NFL with the New England Patriots.

After leading the then-Oakland Raiders to their first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2016, Carr’s touchdown numbers have decreased while interceptions increased. The Raiders have gone 6-10, 4-12, and 7-9 the last three years.

However, Carr is coming off career highs in both passing yards (4,054) and completion percentage (70.4 percent). 2020 would also mark his third consecutive year playing under the same offensive scheme.

Raiders coach Jon Gruden said at the recent NFL Combine, “I love what Derek Carr did, love what he brings to our team, and anxious to continue to build around him.”

That’s why the 28-year old Carr is expected to remain the face of the franchise. And that means the odds of the Las Vegas Raiders landing Brady in free agency are lengthening.

Odds Favor New England

Last month, the odds shortened on Brady relocating to Southern Nevada. Rumors circulated that Brady and family purchased a mansion in the area, and details surrounding his potential contract were floated.

Oddsmakers had the Raiders signing Brady as short as +450. Now, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas has the line at +800. A $100 bet and Las Vegas winning the most coveted free agency in NFL history would net $800.

The Patriots are the frontrunner to retain their superstar QB at -200. A $100 winning wager on that line nets $50.

The Tennessee Titans are at +450, and then it’s the Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers at +800. Other teams in the running include the San Francisco 49ers (+1200) and Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1400). Deciding to retire is at +3000.

UFC President Dana White has been campaigning to bring his friend Brady to Las Vegas.

During a recent Instagram live steam where White was talking on the phone with Brady, the MMA promoter said, “Las Vegas would love to have you here. The stadium, the facility is incredible. It’s a 45-minute flight from LA. Your kids and your family could live there. We want you.”

Potential Offers

Brady and his agents are allowed to formally begin negotiations with other teams at noon ET on March 16.

NFL insiders at ESPN expect the Titans to offer Brady a four-year contract worth $112 million – with $56 million guaranteed at signing. That number will be higher than what the analysts believe the Pats will guarantee him – $37.5 million.

The Titans are the last team to beat Brady, which came in a shocking AFC Division Round upset in Foxboro. With Titans RB Derrick Henry, who led the NFL last year in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, Tennessee gives Brady the best chance of winning another Super Bowl, and proving in the process that he can do so without legendary coach Bill Belichick.

Adding a little icing to the cake is the fact that Tennessee doesn’t tax earned income.