Prediction Markets Coalition Accuses AGA, States of ‘Collusive’ Behavior

The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) says there’s “troubling evidence” various state gaming regulators are acting in concert with the American Gaming Association (AGA) to stymie the growth of yes/no exchanges.

In a letter to 20 state auditors and inspectors general, the coalition highlights the example of the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Agency sending a letter last year to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission — the federal regulator that oversees prediction markets — in which it was critical of yes/no exchanges. The state previously said sports event contracts constitute an “illegal” form of sports wagering.

Using Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) requests, Fox45 Baltimore discovered that the Maryland regulator sent a letter to the CFTC that was essentially a verbatim copy of a draft provided to the state by the AGA — the leading U.S. casino and sportsbook trade group. The CPM implies that could be a tip of the iceberg instance.

Maryland is one of the states that received the CPM letter as is Nevada. Nevada is pertinent here because the CPM alleges that in March 2025, Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control John Martin “circulated a cease-and-desist order that the Nevada Gaming Control Board had issued to Kalshi.”

The CPM adds that in April 2025, Martin distributed to unknown recipients materials from the AGA, including a draft letter that could be sent to the CFTC as well as a list of commissioners’ email addresses.

CPM Says Coordination Is ‘Corroborated’

The CPM points to Utah, a stridently anti-wagering state where politicians vocally oppose prediction markets, as an example of confirmation of the coordination implied by the Maryland emails.

Utah State Auditor Tina Cannon is one of the recipients of the CPM letter. Other states receiving the letter include Minnesota, which passed legislation in May banning prediction markets, and Illinois. Illinois recently implemented a transaction tax on yes/no exchanges. The CFTC is legally challenging both moves.

AGA, CPM May Be Headed for a Tussle

The CPM says that in combination, the Maryland and Utah examples and the documents unearthed by the Fox 45 FOIA requests stoke ethical and legal questions.

“When state regulators join forces with a private industry trade association and an undisclosed coalition of other entities in this way, they appear to be acting not as neutral regulators safeguarding the public, but as interested parties using governmental authority to advance a private agenda,” according to the group.

However, it’s not unusual for trade associations to provide member firms with talking points and other communication materials. For its part, the AGA has been consistent in its opposition to prediction markets, estimating the industry has sapped $1 billion in tax revenue from state and tribal governments.

The CPM was formed last December by Crypto. Com and Kalshi. Its other members are Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), and Underdog.