Crypto-Driven Trades Push Prediction Market Volume to New Heights

• Sports are still the primary driver of prediction market volume
• However, fast resolution cryptocurrency trades are gaining momentum
• Some critics assert those trades are another form of gambling

While sports event contracts remain the primary driver of prediction markets’ soaring volume, the industry is seeing a massive boost from high-frequency, rapid-resolution cryptocurrency trades.

In a new report, Eilers & Krejcik (EKG) analyst Brad Allen highlights a pattern confirming that on Kalshi — the largest US prediction market — timed Bitcoin (BTC) trades, particularly those in 15-minute and daily intervals, are becoming important non-sports volume drivers.

It’s well-known that sports has been the core driver of Kalshi’s meteoric rise. In 3Q-4Q25, sports accounted for roughly 90% of Execution Volume,” observes Allen. “Since the turn of the year, however, Kalshi’s mix has evolved into a sports-plus-crypto story, with short-resolution Bitcoin markets emerging as a primary growth driver.”

Also known as interval or short-resolution trades, timed cryptocurrency markets could continue gaining momentum on yes/no exchanges because digital currencies trade on a 24/7 basis and because many prediction market traders are already crypto-inclined.

Similar Trends Seen on Polymarket

Allen says that Kalshi’s January integration with Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), the largest regulated US cryptocurrency brokerage firm, is likely adding to the uptick in turnover of short-resolution digital currency trades.

“We’ve seen similar trends on Polymarket International where 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly Bitcoin markets, per our tracking, are approaching half of all crypto Execution Volume,” observes the EKG analyst.

Polymarket, which operates as a decentralized finance (DeFi) exchange, also posts markets as short as five minutes on Ether, Solana, and XRP (XRP), among others, in addition to Bitcoin. Typically, Bitcoin, owing to its status as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is the most frequently traded timed market on yes/no exchanges.

Other Prediction Markets Are Taking Note

With its crypto-native DeFi status, Polymarket makes for a natural leader in the short-resolution crypto realm and the same is true of Kalshi thanks to its partnership with Coinbase. However, those operators will face competition on this front.

As Allen points out, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) declared intent to offer timed cryptocurrency event contracts, though it’s not yet live with that offering. These markets have drawn rebuke from critics claiming the contracts are just another form of hyper-speculation, but operators appear poised to lean into these volume (and transaction fee) generators.

“Short-resolution Bitcoin markets are an early example of how prediction market infrastructure can support increasingly game-like user experiences, potentially broadening participation beyond traditional trading-oriented audiences,” Allen explains.

“While still in the early innings, the emergence of short-resolution crypto markets suggests that the next major PM growth chapter may come not just from sports, but from the broader gamification of financial speculation and event trading,” he concludes.