Poll: Americans Oppose Political Prediction Markets, Hold Tepid Views on Industry
Posted on: June 23, 2026, 11:14h.
Last updated on: June 23, 2026, 11:14h.
- A new Politico poll indicates nearly a majority of Americans oppose betting on elections
- They’re largely ambivalent about the prediction markets industry at large
- A majority believe it’s alright to wager on sports
Prediction markets have some work to do to garner favorable views among Americans. A good place to start is limiting one of the industry’s most popular offerings: political event contracts.
A new Politico poll conducted U.K. polling outfit Public First indicates respondents aren’t on board with betting on election results. Less than a third (30%) told the pollsters it should be legal to wager on election outcomes while 44% hold the opposite view. Regarding comments the president or news organizations might make, also known as mention markets, 40% believe those derivatives should be illegal while 43% don’t like the idea of betting on potential recipients of presidential pardons.
The poll doesn’t address potential industry response to the opposition to political markets, but it’s likely there won’t be any. After all, it was the 2024 presidential election that ushered companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket into the mainstream zeitgeist.
That election remains one of the most traded events in prediction market industry history, though it could easily be toppled in volume terms by the 2026 midterms. Other political contests, including the 2025 New York City mayoral contest, drove volume spikes on yes/no exchanges.
Sanguine View on Sports Event Contracts
While those queried by Politico voiced concern about political event contracts, they’re more on board with sports derivatives – the lifeblood of the prediction market industry.
Fifty-three percent of respondents said they believe sports wagering should be legal, more than double the amount that said the opposite. Another 23% said they weren’t sure if sports betting should be legal or illegal. A majority in the “yes” camp is likely a relief for the prediction market industry, which is heavily dependent on sports trading.
Recent analysis from Stifel indicates that sports derivatives account for 58% of total turnover on Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market. Throw in another 27% attributable to combos or parlays, which heavily tilt toward sports, and the percentage grows.
Other markets that a plurality of Americans say should be legal include weather derivatives (46%) and betting on award shows (45%). In each case, just a quarter of respondents to the Politico poll say those wagers should be illegal.
Prediction Market Image Issues
While prediction markets are increasingly mainstream and popular among younger demographics, the industry at large faces an image deficit. Just 19% of those queried in the Politico poll view prediction markets in a positive light, but 29% hold negative views of the industry. Fifty-two percent don’t feel either way or just don’t know.
There are some political divides. Politico points out that 25% of voters that voted for President Trump in 2024 have positive views on prediction market while 20% of those that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris feel the same.
The neither positive nor negative camp is equally comprised of Harris and Trump voters at 27% apiece, but a stark divide emerges on the “negative” side of the ledger where 36% of Harris voters say they object to prediction markets compared to 27% of Trump voters.
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