Stifel: Kalshi Holds 90% Prediction Market Share, But Competition Rising
Posted on: June 18, 2026, 02:12h.
Last updated on: June 18, 2026, 02:12h.
- Kalshi continues holding dominant share of US prediction markets
- Regulated prediction volume jumped 21% to $20.4 billion in May
- DraftKings, Polymarket, others adding to already ultra-competitive landscape
Kalshi continues its vice grip on the domestic prediction market industry, commanding approximately 90% share, but competition is increasing.
In the research firm’s initial “US Prediction Market Tracker” report, Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial notes that May volume on yes/no exchanges regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jumped 21% month-over-month (M/M) to $20.4 billion with Kalshi holding a roughly 90% share of the market. Kalshi, which recently topped $100 billion in lifetime notional volume, is on track for another strong month in June with month-to-date date implying a 40% M/M turnover increase, according to the analyst. Sports remain a significant volume driver for Kalshi and its rivals.
Sports now comprise approximately ~58% of total volumes on Kalshi, while ‘combo’, which skews meaningfully to sports, continues to scale quickly reaching ~27% of notional volume in May,” notes Stantial. “Combined sports+’combo’ volumes accounted for ~86% of total volumes/transactions.”
“Combo” is prediction market lingo for multi-leg bets or parlays, which have long been margin-boosting, profit-generating bets for traditional sportsbooks.
Kalshi On Top, But Competition Is Surging
Kalshi clearly holds commanding positioning in the US prediction markets realm, but that’s not staving off challengers to the throne. Competition is rapidly increasing as more financial services and gaming companies recognize the customer acquisition and margin benefit associated with event contracts.
The rise of the domestic prediction markets industry has invited competition from well-known companies, including Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), among others.
Robinhood, which partners with Kalshi on a portion of its yes/no derivatives business, is routing more event contract order flow through its Rothera platform. Rothera is a joint venture with market maker Susquehanna International Group.
“Robinhood began routing some order flow to its in-house exchange Rothera on 5/30, with cumulative notional trading volume reaching approximately $305 million as of 6/15,” observes Stantial. “Robinhood previously accounted for approximately 25% of Kalshi volumes, by our estimation, with some flow to remain with Kalshi for now given deeper liquidity.”
Non-Sports Volume Showing Signs of Life
To this point in the prediction market industry’s evolution, sports event contracts have been its lifeblood, but other segments, including cryptocurrency and perpetual futures (“Perps”), are emerging as important volume drivers.
“Outside of sports, Crypto is by-far the fastest growing new category quickly reaching ~2/3 of ex-sports volume and ~11% of total volumes (vs. ~7% over the trailing six months),” notes Stantial. “Kalshi recently began offering ‘perps’ on 5/29 which should further accelerate category growth (>$100 million in volumes day 1; >$1 billion in volumes week 1).”
Operators including Coinbase, Kalshi and Polymarket are offering timed, or short-resolution, markets on major cryptocurrencies with those contracts fast emerging as key non-sports volume generators.
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