Vegas Betting Report: What’s Driving Conor McGregor’s UFC 329 Odds Shift?

Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tomorrow night (July 11) for his UFC 329 welterweight bout against Max Holloway, five years after his last fight, with betting odds having shortened considerably in his favour since the bout was announced on May 16.

When the news first came out, Caesars Sportsbook had McGregor at +300 and Holloway at -400. By this morning (July 10), the odds had narrowed considerably, with Holloway at -220 and McGregor at +180 ahead of the 9 p.m. ET main card.

McGregor’s Odds Shorten

At DraftKings this morning, it’s much the same: McGregor +185, Holloway -225.

It’s been five years to the day since McGregor lost to Dustin Poirier by first-round TKO in their lightweight trilogy bout, the lasting image of the fight being McGregor, his left leg broken, slumped against the Octagon fence.

So, what has driven the line movement? Has it been respected bettors taking a position on McGregor despite his lengthy layoff, or is it more a reflection of the public’s willingness to back one of the sport’s biggest stars?

Five-Year Layoff Looms

“The betting action has been overwhelmingly one-sided on McGregor, and we don’t expect it to slow down,” said Johnny Avello, the Las Vegas-based oddsmaker, and Director, Race and Sportsbook Operations with DraftKings.

“He opened at +250 and has already been bet down to +185, with more than 70% of the money backing him. That’s largely a product of his massive fan base and name recognition. If this pace continues, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his odds shorten to as low as +150 by tomorrow night.”

Holloway has stayed active against elite competition. His last fight in March was a loss to Charles Oliveira in a unanimous decision, the one before that, July 19, 2025, a win by unanimous decision over Dustin Poirier.

Public Vs. Sharp Money

The question for handicappers comes down to whether McGregor’s explosiveness early in fights outweighs legitimate concerns about rust, cardio and ring timing.

Props and method-of-victory bets are where bettors might find value, said Brandon Yaeger, Combat Sports Lead Trader, Caesars Sportsbook.

McGregor to win by KO/TKO or DQ was +220 at Caesars Sportsbook this morning (July 10), while Holloway was -125. McGregor by decision was +1000, while Holloway by decision was +500.

Props Offer Value

Yaeger said that with straight bets, 73% of tickets are on McGregor.

“We have seen some sizeable wagers on Holloway, with one customer placing $50K on him, and a few others have tickets in the $10-20K range,” he added. “The biggest bet we’ve seen on McGregor so far is $13K at +180 odds.”

Other fights on the main card for UFC 329 (Caesars odds):

• Benoit Saint Denis (-150) versus Paddy Pimblett (+125) in a lightweight bout
• Cory Sandhagen (-130) versus Mario Bautista (+110) in a bantamweight fight
• Brandon Royval (+180) versus Lone’er Kavanagh (-220) in a flyweight bout
• King Green (+105) versus Terrance McKinney (-125) in a lightweight fight.

“Interest-wise, McGregor versus Holloway is on par with Khamzat Chimaev/Sean Strickland [UFC 328], and Ilia Topuria/Justin Gaethje [UFC Freedom 250],” said Yaeger.

“This one is a little harder to compare since the odds were a little wider on those fights. However, by the time McGregor is making his walk to the Octagon, I’d imagine there will be strong interest in this fight.”