Conor McGregor Opens as Heavy Underdog Against Max Holloway in UFC Return
Posted on: May 23, 2026, 07:48h.
Last updated on: May 26, 2026, 05:44h.
- Max Holloway -500 for UFC 329 Conor McGregor fight at some sportsbooks
- McGregor hasn’t fought in the Octagon in five years, since loss to Dustin Poirier
- Holloway’s last fight was in March, a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira
Oddsmakers are firmly in Max Holloway’s corner for his massive UFC 329 showdown against Conor McGregor this July—a lopsided betting line that comes as no surprise given McGregor’s five-year layoff and extensive injury history.
Five Years Since Last Fight
TonyBet Sportsbook Manager Mārtiņš Korulis noted that their current line reflects those exact concerns. With Holloway sitting at -501 and McGregor at +309, the odds heavily account for the 37-year-old’s brutal injury history and five-year layoff from the sport.
In his last bout, McGregor lost to Dustin Poirier, in a first-round TKO after suffering a broken leg near the end of the opening round.
“McGregor is a difficult fighter to price because there are more unknowns than usual,” said Korulis. “He is still one of the biggest names in combat sports, and his power, timing, and ability to finish a fight early cannot be ignored.
“But he has not been active for a long time, and after a major injury, it is hard to know what version of him will actually show up. From a pure performance point of view, we have to be careful not to price the old McGregor reputation too strongly.”
UFC 329 is scheduled for July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
McGregor has a professional MMA record of 22-6, and a 10-4 UFC record. His pinnacle was 2016 – when he became the UFC’s first simultaneous two-division champion, holding both the featherweight and lightweight titles.
Solid Handle So Far
McGregor’s greatest bout is debated, but most people point to his knockout of longtime featherweight champion Jose Also at UFC 194 in 2015 – in 13 seconds.
McGregor is a long way from that fight, said Korulis. Since the Poirier, McGregor has drawn media attention for everything other than fighting – court cases, Irish politics, social media posts, endorsements, business launches, for whisky and cigars. He has a net worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to media reporting.
“I would describe my thoughts as cautiously optimistic, as we’ve been teased a few times with the return of McGregor,” said Brandon Yaeger, Lead Combat Sports Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “Overall, very excited for the potential matchup, and anytime you get two legends fighting each other, it’s always worth watching. The main thing will be seeing whether McGregor can look anything like his past self and what Holloway can offer. The line is currently priced at Holloway (-400), McGregor (+300). Handle is pretty solid thus far.”
BetMGM: Big Money on McGregor
At BetMGM, current odds are Holloway -550 (after opening at -345), and McGregor +350 (after opening at +250). Ninety-five per cent of bets are on McGregor so far, and 99% of handle.
“Conor McGregor in his prime was truly awesome, but he hasn’t fought since 2021,” said Alex Rella, Trading Manager, BetMGM. “Who knows what version of Conor is going to show up. On the other hand, Max Holloway has never stopped being an elite fighter. There are few fighters in the world that can beat Max in a straight up striking battle.”
Holloway’s last fight was in March, at UFC 326, a loss by unanimous decision to Charles Oliveira.
In that matchup, Oliveira used his elite wrestling to neutralize Holloway, keeping him pinned to the canvas and exhausting him before he could ever unleash his striking. Against McGregor, however, Holloway won’t have to worry about that same grappling threat.
Elite Striking Ability
“Holloway is much easier to trust,” Korulis explained. “He has been active, durable, and consistent, and his pace is a major factor if the fight goes beyond the early rounds. That is why the market naturally leans heavily toward him. He is the safer side based on recent form and reliability.”
Holloway is one of the UFC greats and has beaten some of the biggest names in the history of the sport – Aldo, Justin Gaethje, Poirier. Holloway and McGregor met once before – at UFC Fight Night in 2013, with McGregor winning a three-round unanimous decision.
“So far, the market looks more Holloway-sided, but we would still expect McGregor to attract public money closer to fight week,” he said. “At +309, many casual bettors will see value because of his name, his knockout history, and the comeback story. If he looks sharp in the build-up and the media coverage increases, we could see more McGregor volume late.
“Overall, Holloway is the strong favorite on current form, but McGregor remains the fighter who can create liability for the book. The price reflects the sporting reality, while the betting volume closer to the event may be driven more by McGregor’s popularity,” he concluded.
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