Sports Book Trading Vet: Interesting Prediction Market Movement on Tagle for Pope

Posted on: May 7, 2025, 12:05h. 

Last updated on: May 7, 2025, 02:02h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Pietro Parolin still the betting favourite at sportsbooks
  • Election of new Pope spurring lots of activity in prediction markets
  • Sports betting market boosted by rising usage of AI and blockchain technologies to improve the prediction algorithms

Sportsbook odds at platforms like BetMGM on Wednesday morning still favor Pietro Parolin to be elected Pope (+225) followed by Luis Antonio Tagle (+325), as the Catholic Church begins the process of choosing its new leader.

As the election for a new Pope gets underway today, AI-generated prediction markets shine a spotlight on Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, seen as a more progressive candidate. (Image: Shutterstock)

BetVictor, also targeted at Canadian bettors, has Parolin at +225, Tagle at +300, and Matteo Zuppi at +450. 

That selection process is in conclave, a solemn, secret ritual involving 133 cardinals, all under the age of 80, who debate and then vote for the candidate they prefer. Meanwhile, the world waits to see who replaces Pope Francis, who died on April 21, watching the color of chimney smoke at the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City. Black smoke means no candidate has received the necessary two-thirds of votes to be elected as the new pontiff. White smoke indicates cardinals have selected a new Pope.

On the betting front, what’s standing out is how interest in the election of a new Pope is shining a brighter spotlight on the growth of prediction markets like Polymarket, the crypto-trading platform, and Kalshi, according to Phillip Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst, and the former head of trading operations for Sports Interaction.

Prediction Markets Fuelling Growth

On Wednesday morning, San Francisco-based Grand View Research Inc. released a study estimating that the size of the global sports betting market will reach US$187.39 billion by 2030, driven in part by the “rising usage of AI and blockchain technologies to improve the prediction algorithms in betting software … likely to boost the growth of the market during the forecast period.”

Gray points to betting on the election of a new Pope being “massive” in the prediction markets, and highlights an interesting AI prediction take: while Parolin is the betting favorite and might command initial votes (he’s seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives), his Vatican bureaucratic background and involvement in past diplomatic controversies might limit his appeal in later ballots.

The AI prediction pointed to Tagle’s charisma, easy laugh and smile, and geographic representation, plus the fact he likely wouldn’t roll back Pope Francis’ progressive reforms, which will play in his favor if the conclave lasts beyond three ballots.

Sports Betting: $187.39 Billion Market by 2030

The Asian continent has around 11% of the global Catholic population, up .6% between 2022 and 2023.

There’s no denying the popularity of this particular Pope prop, which has accelerated from 1978 when the first UK betting odds on the conclave were offered.

“We’re mostly looking [to the prediction market] as opposed to sportsbooks for ‘true’ liquidity,” Gray said. “Prediction markets now will generally have far more liquidity [stake] as there are far bigger ‘bet sizes’ and constant trading of shares as events draw closer, especially with these nontraditional events. Look at the past US election [of Donald Trump] – the polls were wrong and the markets were right. The sportsbook price on Trump was directly affected by the action on prediction markets, which were taking huge money on Trump.”

Prediction markets have Pietro Parolin with the best chance to be elected Pope. (Image: Polymarket)

Tagle Rising in Some Bettors’ Eyes 

“If prediction markets were not around, you would have seen a much shorter price on [Kamala] Harris,” Gray added. “The action at sportsbooks was on her. They would have traditionally moved her price (given the polls) to offset what was a big liability on her. She closed at about +150. No way she should have been that price looking at polls. However, looking at the prediction markets that was the correct price.”

AI is taking over the sports betting industry, Gray adds, and the race for Pope is a window into that.

The last few months, with everything I’m seeing, it’s quite remarkable. AI predictions are going to be and have already started to be integrated into sites as an engagement feature.”

With automated feeds and the ease of coding algorithms to move the pricing on the line, the only human “bookmaking” you see now is stake factoring, which comes down to traders watching a bet ticker and either cutting someone’s limits or raising them, Gray added.

For the record, Polymarket this afternoon has Parolin with a 31% chance to be named Pope ($1.46 million volume) followed by Tagle at 19% ($1.58 million volume).

Oddschecker, the UK-based online sports betting odds comparison platform, says the election of the new Pope ranks among its most popular bets, with odds for the favorite Parolin falling between +225 and +275. Tagle is falling between +275 and +350.