Polymarket Users Still Like Poilievre to Win Canadian Election

Posted on: March 12, 2025, 08:19h. 

Last updated on: March 12, 2025, 10:08h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership vote in a landslide
  • Election odds are tightening
  • Conservative Party MP Pierre Poilievre is at a 59% chance to win, according to Polymarket

Mark Carney is the new Prime Minister of Canada, but not because the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England won any general election.

Mark Carney being named the new Liberal Party leader and new PM of Canada plus an ongoing trade tariff dispute with the US is impacting betting markets. (Image: Unsplash)

The unpopular Justin Trudeau resigned in January. The Liberal Party held its leadership vote Sunday and Carney won over three other competitors in a landslide. 

The Liberals are in power with a minority government, propped up by a deal with the leftist New Democrat Party, with an election mandated for on or before Oct. 20, 2025.

The question in Canada is if Carney will call an election before that October date and go for a new mandate.

Betting Odds Tighten

In February, BetMGM had the Conservatives at -325, followed by the Liberals at +225. Those odds have tightened and, as of Wednesday, FanDuel has Conservatives at -220, the Liberals at +140, and the NDP at +10000. BetVictor has the Conservatives at -200 and the Liberals at +163. At bet365, it’s the Conservatives at -227 and the Liberals at +162.

“[Wagering] is very quiet now,” said David Merry, a trader with BetVictor. “It should pick up when Carney names a date for the next federal election. Carney had been well-backed to win the leadership battle. He’s shortened from a high of 8/1 (+800) in early February to his current 13/8 (+163) to win the next election.”

Trump Roiling Up Canadian Voters

Now Carney and the Liberals, after nine years in power and months in the wilderness under Trudeau and his government’s unpopular policies, are in the driver’s seat. 

The Liberals are also benefitting from chatter from US President Donald Trump about Canada becoming the 51st US state, which has spread across cable news outlets and social media. Serious or not, Trump’s comments have angered wide swaths of Canadians.

A tariff battle between the US and Canada has also translated into a grassroots uptick in Canadian patriotism. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to slap a 25% tariff on electricity going into the US. Trump responded with reciprocal tariffs, which would begin on April 2. Ford has since backed down.

Billions in Lost Spending

Meanwhile, everyday Canadians are buying Made in Canada products at grocery stores, and are canceling travel to the US, which the US Travel Association says will cost billions in lost spending.

Voters who had been slumbering under Trudeau are now heading into the arms of the Liberal Party, which has enjoyed a political monopoly in Canada for more than a century. (Liberals have been in power for almost 79 of the past 120 years.)

Things are Interesting at Polymarket

Users on the New York-based cryptocurrency prediction website, which launched in 2020, can bet on news events, including political and legislative outcomes, awards, and economic indicators.

As of Wednesday morning, Polymarket had Conservative Party MP Pierre Poilievre with a 59% chance of winning ($2.15 million volume), and Carney at 41% ($1.3 million volume). Just a month ago, that split was at 83% Poilievre, 17% Carney.

“As sportsbooks try to find new and creative ways to inspire and attract new customers, the ability to offer betting markets on political, entertainment, or anything not traditional sports is a great way to try and attract new audiences,” said iGaming industry consultant Aly Lalani. “Almost like esports, it can be a differentiator as long as it’s something operators have committed to. Not only is it helpful from a product perspective, it can also be very valuable from a marketing perspective, as brands try and get their product in front of new eyeballs.”