EPL Odds for 2026/27 – Which Teams Offer the Best Value?

The 2026/27 Premier League title race may already be turning into a two-horse race. Defending champions Arsenal and a revamped Manchester City both have perfect records after four matches, and sit four points clear of Leeds United in third.

However, the Gunners remain the heavy favorites to record back-to-back title wins this season. This is thanks in part to their stability, squad depth, and smart recruitment, while each of their so-called “big six” rivals (including City) have changed their permanent manager during the previous nine months.

However, these factors have driven Arsenal’s “Yes” price to 57¢. Although this may still offer value in some instances, it doesn’t reflect the true probability of the Gunners retaining their title. So, there are alternative picks with a higher potential upside.

I’ll analyze some of these picks in more detail below. I’ll also explore some possible trading strategies to help you navigate the market.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Arsenal Odds – Buy and Hold “Yes” Share on the Gunners

“Arsenal” | “Yes” at 57¢ | 56% Chance

Arsenal’s title win in 2025/26 was the result of their enduring stability and sustained financial investment. Mikel Arteta is now in his eighth year of managing the North London club and has overseen a total spend of around $1.48 billion (£1.09 billion) during his tenure.

Last season’s success was also built on the Gunners’ excellent defensive organization. They conceded just 27 goals in 38 EPL matches at a rate of 0.71 per 90 minutes, with this compensating for an occasionally stodgy and underwhelming attack. They’ve conceded just once so far in 2026/27, too.

Although center back William Saliba is currently sidelined with a long-term injury, the summer acquisition of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa provides outstanding cover.

Bruno Guimarães has also signed for £75 million from Newcastle, with the Brazilian excellent in possession and the perfect midfield foil for Declan Rice.

Guimarães averaged 4.97 progressive passes for the Magpies in 2025/26, placing him in the 91st percentile for this metric. He’ll definitely make the Gunners more adept at breaking down low blocks, while he scored his first goal for the club in the recent 2-0 win at Sunderland.

This shrewd recruitment represents evolution rather than revolution for Arsenal, who have the deepest squad in the league. With their big six rivals all in varying states of transition, too, it’s little wonder that the Gunners are slightly overpriced in the EPL winners’ market.

However, there’s some value in backing Arsenal at their current price of 57¢ (up from 46¢ on August 21st). This is especially true if you’re willing to hold your position until the market settles.

You could also sell profitably in the second half of the season if Arsenal dominate and their price moves above 70¢, but this does introduce the risk of being caught in a low-liquidity trap.

Manchester City Odds – A Proven Winner With a High Potential Upside

“Manchester City” | “Yes” at 30¢ | 30% Chance

The summer heralded the end of an era for Manchester City. The brilliant Pep Guardiola left the club after a decade of incredible success, which saw the Citizens win 17 major trophies and six Premier League titles.

A number of key players have also departed, including John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, and midfield metronome Rodri. Incoming manager Enzo Maresca has spent over $608 million (£450 million) on new players so far, including a record $169 million (£125 million) on Argentinian midfielder Enzo Fernandez.

This represents a huge rebuild, while the task of replacing Guardiola could yet weigh heavily on Maresca and the club. The Italian won a respectable 59.78% of his matches as Chelsea boss, but this is significantly lower than Guardiola’s overall City win-rate of 70.2%.

However, Maresca has hit the ground running in Manchester. He has emulated the iconic Spaniard by winning his first four league games in charge, including a gritty derby win on the road at the weekend. This has seen City’s “Yes” price increase by 57.8% since August 28th, from just 19¢ to the current benchmark of 30¢.

This price is a baseline for a perennial top-two team like City, while it aligns almost perfectly with the prevailing sportsbook consensus. The average odds currently imply a 30.8% probability of a City title win.

If you bought in at 19¢, you may be tempted to sell for a quick profit at the current price. However, this has the potential to increase higher in the first third of the campaign and prior to City’s trip to the Emirates on November 28th . You can then aim for an exit price of between 40¢ and 45¢.

Liverpool Odds – Capitalize on a Low “Yes” Price and Aim to Sell

“Liverpool” | “Yes” at 2.9¢ | 3% Chance

Liverpool have endured a mixed start to the season, going unbeaten in their opening four games but winning just once. They’ve struggled for potency in the attacking third during this sequence, ranking 14th for big chances created (eight) and accumulating a modest xG of just 5.87.

New manager Andoni Iraola is also struggling to create structure in midfield, while the Reds remain vulnerable from set pieces. Iraola’s Bournemouth side shipped 18 goals from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins last season, with only Liverpool (20) conceding more.

The Reds looked tired during their recent 0-0 draw at home against Fulham, too. This display followed a superb, energetic performance against Atletico Madrid in midweek, with the Liverpool squad clearly adjusting to Iraola’s intense, high-pressing style.

These factors have caused Liverpool to be significantly undervalued in the market. However, the Reds’ playing squad is more than capable of implementing Iriola’s philosophy on a consistent basis, while it also includes a wealth of attacking quality.

At just 2.9¢, Liverpool’s price is also unlikely to fall further. This represents a low entry point for a team with such strength and historical standing, barring a sustained winless run or slide down the table. So, consider buying up “Yes” shares now, in the knowledge that even a modest winning run could send the price soaring to 10¢ or higher.

In this instance, you could even sell a percentage of your “Yes” shares and recoup your initial investment or bank a small profit. You can then hold onto the remainder in the hope that Liverpool will mount a title challenge that drives the price even higher.

Appraising Long Shots – Value in Villa and Why You Should Avoid Brentford

A quick glance at Polymarket shows teams like Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Brentford trading at less than 1¢. These trades can be tempting, especially as even a nominal increase to 4¢ – 5¢ could yield significant profits.

However, not all of these trades will offer value. Aston Villa are probably the pick of the bunch, with a current “Yes” price of 0.4¢ based largely on a poor start and the recent loss of key personnel including Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rodgers, and the aforementioned Konsa.

Still, the Villains retain the services of head coach Unai Emery, who led the team to fourth place in 2025/26 and secured a Europa League win. The Spaniard has recruited relatively well during the summer, too, so a strong run of form could see Villa’s price push beyond 4¢.

Conversely, teams like Brentford should be avoided in this market. While the Bees are similarly priced at 0.3¢, they lack the pedigree and solid foundation of Villa. So, they’d have to sit near the top of the table into November or December for the price to reach 3¢ – 4¢ or higher.

Brentford have won just seven of their 24 league matches in 2026 (22.5%), so they arguably lack the consistency to crack the top three or four.

The Last Word – Finding Value in the EPL Winner Market

Unless you back current favorites Arsenal, your goal in this market shouldn’t be to buy “Yes” shares and hold them until settlement. 

Instead, I’d recommend snapping up undervalued shares in teams such as Manchester City and Liverpool. You can then create a viable exit strategy and sell for a profit during the season (while avoiding potential liquidity traps).

When picking heavily underpriced sides like Liverpool or Aston Villa, it’s also possible to buy low and sell a percentage of your shares to recoup your investment. You can then maintain a smaller, open position and look to bank higher profits later in the season.

However you trade, just remember to track weekly Premier League results and their impact on the market. This will help to maximize the value of your trades and identify new opportunities in real-time!

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