EPL Odds for 2026/27 – Which Teams Offer the Best Value?

Manchester City endured another difficult Premier League weekend, slumping to a 1-0 home defeat against high-flying Brighton. This was a second successive league loss for the Citizens, whose win probability on Polymarket has sunk to a new low of just 11% (down by 28 percentage points since September 24th).

Clearly, Polymarket traders remain unconvinced of City’s title credentials. Their recent form is compounding the club’s litigation issues, after the EPL found them guilty on 114 of 115 charges pertaining to systemic breaches of financial rules and a failure to cooperate with the league’s investigation. City have appealed the verdict and await the final outcome.

Conversely, defending champions Arsenal ground out another narrow, 1-0 win on the road at Liverpool on Sunday. This was club’s first victory at Anfield for 14 years, and Mikel Arteta’s charges now have a 70% of retaining their EPL crown. This is the highest such benchmark since the market opened.

The Gunners were already the clear favorites to record back-to-back title wins this season. This is thanks in part to their stability, squad depth, and smart recruitment, while each of their so-called “big six” rivals (including City) have changed their permanent manager during the previous nine months. But do they still offer value in EPL winner prediction market? Here’s my analysis of the latest odds and best-value picks.

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Arsenal Odds – Buying and Holding “Yes” Shares in the Gunners

“Arsenal” | “Yes” at 71¢ | 70% Chance

Arsenal’s title win in 2025/26 was the result of the club’s enduring stability and sustained financial investment. Mikel Arteta is now in his eighth year of managing the North London club and has overseen a total spend of around $1.48 billion (£1.09 billion) during his tenure.

Last season’s success was also built on the Gunners’ excellent defensive organization. They conceded just 27 goals in 38 EPL matches at a rate of 0.71 per 90 minutes, with this compensating for an occasionally stodgy and underwhelming attack.

Although center back William Saliba is currently sidelined with a long-term injury, the summer acquisition of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa continues to provide outstanding cover. He has already formed a formidable partnership with Gabriel, keeping six clean sheets in nine matches so far (66.6%).

The Gunners were typically resilient at Anfield over the weekend. They prevented Liverpool from having a single shot on target for the entire 90 minutes, while restricting them to a paltry xG of 1.15. Their win probability has since increased to 70%, while a revised price of 71¢ represents a brand-new peak.

If you already hold “Yes” shares in the Gunners, I’d recommend that you maintain your position until later in the season. Even prior to settlement, the price could increase markedly if City receive an immediate points’ deduction, potentially creating the opportunity to flip your position for a profit.

If you’re convinced that the Gunners will retain their title and willing to hold your “Yes” shares until settlement, a renewed price of 71¢ may still be tempting. However, this requires you track the market closely and puts you at risk of low-liquidity traps.

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Manchester City Odds – Now an Uncertain, High-Risk Pick

“Manchester City” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 11% Chance

Even prior to the club’s guilty verdict, the summer already heralded the end of an era for Manchester City. The brilliant Pep Guardiola left the club after a decade of incredible success, which saw the Citizens win 17 major trophies and six Premier League titles.

A number of key players have also departed, including John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, and midfield metronome Rodri. Incoming manager Enzo Maresca has spent over $608 million (£450 million) on new players so far, including a record $169 million (£125 million) on Argentinian midfielder Enzo Fernandez.

This represents a huge rebuild, but Maresca has managed to hit the ground running in Manchester. He has even superseded his iconic predecessor by winning his first seven league games in charge, including a gritty derby triumph on the road at Old Trafford.

However, the weekend defeat against Brighton has contributed to a further slump in the team’s “Yes” price. This is down by 71.79% from its peak of 39¢ on September 24th, while City are now winless in the EPL since October 17th.

If you previously bought in at 19¢, I recommended that you cash out your “Yes” shares in City at 20¢ two weeks ago. This would have allowed you to bank a nominal profit, but this opportunity may now have passed. Attempting to sell now may be difficult due to low liquidity levels while it will also incur a loss. So, you may have to hold your position and hope that the Citizens win their appeal.

Liverpool Odds – Capitalize on a Low “Yes” Price and Aim to Sell

“Liverpool” | “Yes” at 4.9¢ | 5% Chance

Liverpool have endured a mixed start to the season, winning four of their opening nine games after the defeat against Arsenal. They’ve struggled for potency in the attacking third during this sequence, ranking 19th for big chances created (12) and accumulating a modest xG of just 11.83.

New manager Andoni Iraola is also struggling to create structure in midfield, while the Reds remain vulnerable from set pieces. Iraola’s Bournemouth side shipped 18 goals from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins last season, with only Liverpool (20) conceding more.

These factors have caused Liverpool to be significantly undervalued in the market. However, the Reds’ playing squad is more than capable of implementing Iriola’s philosophy on a consistent basis, while it also includes a wealth of attacking quality.

It’s also not uncommon for teams to adapt slowly to Iraola’s intense, high-pressing style. Despite signs of improvement during successive wins over Brentford and Brighton, however, the team struggled to impose themselves against the Gunners, with their press failing to force errors or create any high quality chances.

This defeat has seen the Reds’ “Yes” price decline by 33.78% in less than a week, from 7.4¢ to a modest 4.9¢. However, the Reds have a more favorable run of EPL fixtures ahead, and even a modest winning sequence could send the price soaring to between 10¢ and 15¢ at least. So, even if you previously bought in at 5¢, continue to hold your position for the time being.

As with Arsenal, confirmation of a points’ deduction for City would also boost Liverpool’s “Yes” price further. So, there’s also value in buying “Yes” shares at the current price and waiting for the optimal window to flip.

Appraising Long Shots – Value in Villa and Why You Should Avoid Brentford

Despite the news surrounding Man City, a quick glance at Polymarket shows teams like Aston Villa and Brentford trading at less than 1¢. These trades remain tempting, especially as even a nominal increase to 4¢ – 5¢ could yield significant profits.

However, not all of these trades will offer value. Aston Villa are the pick of the bunch, with a current “Yes” price of 0.5¢ based largely on a poor start and the loss of key personnel including Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rodgers, and the aforementioned Konsa. However, Villa are now unbeaten in five games and up to 9th in the table.

The Villains also retain the services of head coach Unai Emery, who led the team to fourth place in 2025/26 and a Europa League win. The Spaniard has recruited well during the summer, too, so a sustained run of good form could see Villa’s price push beyond 4¢.

Conversely, teams like Brentford should be avoided in this market. While the Bees are priced at 0.2¢ and currently sit sixth in the table, they lack the pedigree and solid foundation of Villa. So, they’d have to remain near the top of the table into the New Year for the price to reach 3¢ – 4¢ or higher.

Overall, Brentford have won just nine of their 29 league matches in 2026 (31.03%), so they lack the consistency to crack the top four for an extended period of time.

Brighton’s unlikely challenge continues to gather momentum after the Seagulls’ win at City. Now third and just five points off top spot, Brighton’s “Yes” price has soared from a starting point of 0.4¢ to its current peak of 7.2¢ (an increase of 1,700%). Selling now would represent a perfectly valid strategy, but Brighton’s fixture list may encourage you to hold until the end of December.

The Last Word – Finding Value in the EPL Winner Market

The revelation of City’s guilty verdicts has sent shockwaves through the Premier League. It has also impacted the EPL winner odds significantly, with Enzo Maresca’s team facing the prospect of significant sanctions that would rule them out of the title race.

There’s absolutely no value in backing City now. For those of you who already hold “Yes” shares in the team winning, the chance to sell profitably may now have passed, so you’ll need to hold onto your position and hope that the club’s appeal is successful. Any attempts to sell and minimize losses will also be dependent on demand and the level of liquidity in the market.

Of course, the recent news fortifies your position if you’ve already snapped up “Yes” shares in heavy favorites Arsenal. In this case, you can continue to hold, either until settlement or once the price breaks out above 80¢ (depending on when you bought in).

When picking heavily underpriced sides like Liverpool or Aston Villa, it’s also possible to buy low and sell a percentage of your shares to recoup your investment. You can then maintain a smaller, open position and look to bank higher profits later in the season.

However you trade, just remember to track weekly Premier League results and their impact on the market. This will help to maximize the value of your trades and identify new opportunities in real-time!

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