EPL Odds for 2026/27 – Which Teams Offer the Best Value?

While we may be in the midst of an international break, the 2026/27 Premier League season race took another dramatic turn last weekend. The Athletic revealed that Manchester City had been found guilty on 114 of the 115 charges brought by the Premier League, including all 79 that pertained to financial rule breaches.

Predictably, City have since launched a formal appeal against the verdict. It’s expected that this will be resolved in around 12 weeks, meaning that we’re still some time away from gaining closure and seeing sanctions imposed.

However, Polymarket traders have reacted swiftly to the news. The Citizens’ “Yes” price in the EPL winner market has declined by 48.72% to just 20¢ since September 25th, while Arsenal are now afforded a 62% of retaining their EPL crown (up from 48% just two weeks ago).

The Gunners were already the clear favorites to record back-to-back title wins this season. This is thanks in part to their stability, squad depth, and smart recruitment, while each of their so-called “big six” rivals (including City) have changed their permanent manager during the previous nine months. But do they still offer value in EPL winner prediction market? Here’s my analysis of the latest odds and best-value picks.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Arsenal Odds – Buying and Holding “Yes” Shares in the Gunners

“Arsenal” | “Yes” at 62¢ | 62% Chance

Arsenal’s title win in 2025/26 was the result of the club’s enduring stability and sustained financial investment. Mikel Arteta is now in his eighth year of managing the North London club and has overseen a total spend of around $1.48 billion (£1.09 billion) during his tenure.

Last season’s success was also built on the Gunners’ excellent defensive organization. They conceded just 27 goals in 38 EPL matches at a rate of 0.71 per 90 minutes, with this compensating for an occasionally stodgy and underwhelming attack.

Although center back William Saliba is currently sidelined with a long-term injury, the summer acquisition of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa provides outstanding cover. Bruno Guimarães has also signed for £75 million from Newcastle, with the Brazilian excellent in possession and likely to be the perfect midfield foil for Declan Rice.

Of course, the Gunners’ 3-0 defeat at Brighton last time out created doubt in the minds of traders and sent their “Yes” shares tumbling to 48¢ (the lowest such benchmark since August 21st). However, the prospect of a huge points’ sanction for rivals City has triggered a sudden increase of 29.17%, with the revised price of 62¢ setting a brand new peak.

If you already hold “Yes” shares in the Gunners, I’d recommend that you maintain your position until later in the season. Even prior to settlement, the price could increase markedly if City receive an immediate points’ deduction, potentially creating the opportunity to flip your position for a profit.

If you’re convinced that the Gunners will retain their title and willing to hold your “Yes” shares until settlement, a renewed price of 62¢ may still be tempting. However, this requires you track the market closely and puts you at risk of low-liquidity traps.

Manchester City Odds – Now an Uncertain, High-Risk Pick

“Manchester City” | “Yes” at 20¢ | 20% Chance

The summer already heralded the end of an era for Manchester City. The brilliant Pep Guardiola left the club after a decade of incredible success, which saw the Citizens win 17 major trophies and six Premier League titles.

A number of key players have also departed, including John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, and midfield metronome Rodri. Incoming manager Enzo Maresca has spent over $608 million (£450 million) on new players so far, including a record $169 million (£125 million) on Argentinian midfielder Enzo Fernandez.

This represents a huge rebuild, but Maresca managed to hit the ground running in Manchester. He even emulated his iconic predecessor by winning his first five league games in charge, including a gritty derby triumph on the road at Old Trafford.

The most recent win over Sunderland saw City’s “Yes” price increase to a new high of 39¢, but it has tumbled dramatically after they were found guilty on 114 of 115 financial charges.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in City at 19¢ on August 28th, so the revised price of 20¢ at least offers a theoretical profit. You could try to cash in now and bank a small ROI of 5.26%, which is adequate for such a short timeframe. It’s certainly preferable to holding your position, as a significant points deduction is among the most likely punishments facing the Citizens.

This would be large enough to eliminate City from the title race and potentially lead to relegation from the top-flight. Because of this, you should also avoid buying “Yes” shares in City at the current price.

Liverpool Odds – Capitalize on a Low “Yes” Price and Aim to Sell

“Liverpool” | “Yes” at 6.9¢ | 7% Chance

Liverpool have endured a mixed start to the season, going unbeaten in their opening five games but winning just twice. They’ve struggled for potency in the attacking third during this sequence, ranking 18th for big chances created (five) and accumulating a modest xG of just 7.44.

New manager Andoni Iraola is also struggling to create structure in midfield, while the Reds remain vulnerable from set pieces. Iraola’s Bournemouth side shipped 18 goals from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins last season, with only Liverpool (20) conceding more.

These factors have caused Liverpool to be significantly undervalued in the market. However, the Reds’ playing squad is more than capable of implementing Iriola’s philosophy on a consistent basis, while it also includes a wealth of attacking quality.

The Reds also ground out a 1-0 win at Bournemouth prior to the international break, underlining the team’s resilience and gradual improvement. It’s not uncommon for teams to adapt slowly to Iraola’s intense, high-pressing style, and I expect Liverpool get better as the season progresses.

Liverpool have also benefited slightly from City’s legal issues. Their “Yes” price has increased by 38% to 6.9¢ since the news broke, while the Reds may emerge as Arsenal’s closest challengers as the season progresses. If you previously bought in at 5¢, continue to hold your position, safe in the knowledge that even a modest winning run could send the price soaring to between 10¢ and 15¢ at least.

As with Arsenal, confirmation of a points’ deduction for City would also boost Liverpool’s “Yes” price further. So, there’s also value in buying “Yes” shares at the current price and waiting for the optimal window to flip.

Appraising Long Shots – Value in Villa and Why You Should Avoid Brentford

Despite the news surrounding Man City, a quick glance at Polymarket shows teams like Aston Villa and Brentford still trading at less than 1¢. These trades remain tempting, especially as even a nominal increase to 4¢ – 5¢ could yield significant profits.

However, not all of these trades will offer value. Aston Villa are probably the pick of the bunch, with a current “Yes” price of 0.4¢ based largely on a poor start and the recent loss of key personnel including Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rodgers, and the aforementioned Konsa.

Still, the Villains retain the services of head coach Unai Emery, who led the team to fourth place in 2025/26 and secured a Europa League win. The Spaniard has recruited relatively well during the summer, too, so a strong run of form could see Villa’s price push beyond 4¢.

Conversely, teams like Brentford should be avoided in this market. While the Bees are similarly priced at 0.8¢ and currently sit fourth in the table, they lack the pedigree and solid foundation of Villa. So, they’d have to remain near the top of the table into November or December for the price to reach 3¢ – 4¢ or higher.

Overall, Brentford have won just eight of their 25 league matches in 2026 (32%), so they arguably lack the consistency to crack the top three or four for an extended period of time.

Brighton’s superb win over Arsenal initially sent their price soaring by 550%, from 0.4¢ to 2.6¢. However, I think that this price may have already peaked (it has since contracted back to 2.1¢), unless the Seagulls are able to sustain their form after the international break.

The Last Word – Finding Value in the EPL Winner Market

The revelation of City’s guilty verdicts has sent shockwaves through the Premier League. It has also impacted the EPL winner odds significantly, with Enzo Maresca’s team facing the prospect of significant sanctions that would rule them out of the title race.

There’s absolutely no value in backing City now. For those of you who already hold “Yes” shares in the team winning, I’d encourage you to sell now (with a view to either securing a nominal profit or minimizing your losses). Just note that this will be dependent on demand and the level of liquidity in the market.

Of course, the recent news fortifies your position if you’ve already snapped up “Yes” shares in heavy favorites Arsenal. In this case, you can continue to hold, either until settlement or should the price break out above the 75¢ – 80¢ range.

When picking heavily underpriced sides like Liverpool or Aston Villa, it’s also possible to buy low and sell a percentage of your shares to recoup your investment. You can then maintain a smaller, open position and look to bank higher profits later in the season.

However you trade, just remember to track weekly Premier League results and their impact on the market. This will help to maximize the value of your trades and identify new opportunities in real-time!

Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10.