EPL Odds for 2026/27 – Which Teams Offer the Best Value?

The dust has barely settled on the 2026 World Cup, but the new Premier League season is already underway. Champions Arsenal kicked off the latest campaign, beginning their title defense with a 3-0 win over newly-promoted Coventry.

The Gunners are the deserved favorites to record back-to-back title wins this season, according to the latest EPL winner odds. This is thanks in part to their stability, squad depth, and smart recruitment, while each of their so-called “big six” rivals have changed their permanent manager during the previous nine months.

However, these factors have driven Arsenal’s “Yes” price to 50¢. Although this may still offer value in some instances, it doesn’t reflect the true probability of the Gunners retaining their title. So, there are alternative picks with a higher potential upside.

I’ll analyze some of these picks in more detail below. I’ll also explore some possible trading strategies to help you navigate the market.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Arsenal Odds – Buy and Hold “Yes” Share on the Gunners

“Arsenal” | “Yes” at 50¢ | 50% Chance

Arsenal’s title win in 2025/26 was the result of their enduring stability and sustained financial investment. Mikel Arteta is now in his eighth year of managing the North London club, for example, while he has overseen a total spend of around $1.48 billion (£1.09 billion) during his tenure.

Last season’s success was also built on the Gunners’ excellent defensive organization. They conceded just 27 goals in 38 EPL matches at a rate of 0.71 per 90 minutes, with this compensating for an occasionally stodgy and underwhelming attack.

Although center back William Saliba is currently sidelined with a long-term injury, the summer acquisition of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa provides outstanding cover. Bruno Guimarães has also signed for £75 million from Newcastle, with the Brazilian excellent in possession and the perfect midfield foil for Declan Rice.

Guimarães averaged 4.97 progressive passes for the Magpies in 2025/26, placing him in the 91st percentile for this metric. He’ll definitely make the Gunners better in possession and more adept at breaking down low blocks.

This shrewd recruitment represents evolution rather than revolution for Arsenal, who have the deepest and most stable squad in the league. With their big six rivals all in varying states of transition, too, it’s little wonder that the Gunners are slightly overpriced in the EPL winners’ market.

However, there’s some value in backing Arsenal at their current price of 50¢ (down from a peak of 53¢ on August 24th). This is especially true if you’re willing to hold your position until the market settles. You could also sell profitably in the second half of the season if Arsenal dominate and their price moves above 65¢, but this does introduce the risk of being caught in a low-liquidity trap.

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Did you know?

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Manchester City Odds – A Proven Winner With a High Potential Upside

“Manchester City” | “Yes” at 23¢ | 23% Chance

The summer heralded the end of an era for Manchester City. The brilliant Pep Guardiola left the club after a decade of incredible success, which saw the Citizens win 17 major trophies and six Premier League titles.

A number of key players have also departed, including John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, and midfield metronome Rodri. New manager Enzo Maresca has spent approximately $364 million (£264 million) on new players so far, including a record $157 million (£116 million ) on midfielder Elliot Anderson.

This represents a huge rebuild, while the task of replacing Guardiola could yet weigh heavy on Maresca and the club. The Italian won a respectable 59.78% of his matches as Chelsea boss, but this is significantly lower than Guardiola’s overall City win-rate of 70.2%.

These factors have caused traders to undervalue City, with a current price of 23¢ not reflective of the team’s attacking quality. Some sportsbook odds also afford the Citizens a 28.6% chance of lifting the title in 2026/27, suggesting that their true win probability is higher than their price implies.

30¢ would usually be a baseline for a top-two team like City, so it won’t take much for their price to increase sharply in the coming weeks. So, consider snapping up “Yes” shares now and aim for an exit price of between 35¢ and 45¢ later in the season.

Liverpool Odds – Capitalize on a Low “Yes” Price and Aim to Sell

“Liverpool” | “Yes” at 7¢ | 7% Chance

Liverpool have endured a difficult start to the season, drawing at Newcastle before being held at home by Nottingham Forest. Despite attempting 40 shots and producing a cumulative xG of 4.34 during these games, they conceded four times and struggled during defensive transitions.

New manager Andoni Iraola is certainly struggling to create structure in midfield, while the Reds also remain vulnerable from set pieces. Iraola’s Bournemouth side shipped 18 goals from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins last season, with only Liverpool (20) conceding more.

These factors have discouraged traders and driven Liverpool’s win probability down to 7% on Polymarket. However, this ignores the Reds’ wealth of attacking quality, while Iraola’s intense, high-pressing style is perfectly suited to his core playing squad. 

At 7¢, Liverpool’s price is also unlikely to fall further. This represents an entry point for a team with such elite standing, barring a long winless run or long slide down the table. So, consider buying up “Yes” shares now, in the knowledge that even a modest winning run could send the price soaring to 15¢ or higher.

In this instance, you could sell a percentage of your “Yes” shares and recoup your initial investment. You can then hold onto the remainder in the hope that Liverpool will mount a title challenge that drives the price even higher.

Appraising Long Shots – Value in Villa and Why You Should Avoid Brentford

A quick glance at Polymarket shows teams like Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Brentford trading at less than 1¢. These trades can be tempting, especially as even a nominal increase to 4¢ – 5¢ could yield significant profits.

However, not all of these trades will offer value. Aston Villa are probably the pick of the bunch, with a “Yes” price of 0.5¢ based largely on the recent loss of key personnel including Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rodgers, and the aforementioned Konsa.

Still, the Villains retain the services of head coach Unai Emery, who led the team to fourth place in 2025/26 and secured a Europa League win. The Spaniard has recruited well during the summer, too, so a strong run of form could see Villa’s price push beyond 4¢.

Conversely, teams like Brentford should be avoided in this market. While the Bees are similarly priced at 0.6¢, they lack the pedigree and solid foundation of Villa. So, they’d have to sit near the top of the table into November or December for the price to reach 3¢ – 4¢ or higher.

Brentford have won just seven of their 22 league matches in 2026 (31.8%), so they arguably lack the consistency to crack the top three or four.

The Last Word – Finding Value in the EPL Winner Market

Unless you back current favorites Arsenal, your goal in this market shouldn’t be to buy “Yes” shares and hold them until settlement. 

Instead, I’d recommend snapping up undervalued shares in teams such as Manchester City and Liverpool. You can then create a viable exit strategy and sell for a profit during the season (while avoiding potential liquidity traps).

When picking heavily underpriced sides like Liverpool or Aston Villa, it’s also possible to buy low and sell a percentage of your shares to recoup your investment. You can then maintain a smaller, open position and look to bank higher profits later in the season.

However you trade, just remember to track weekly Premier League results and their impact on the market. This will help to maximize the value of your trades and identify new opportunities in real-time!

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