The 2027 Oscars Odds – Exploring the Prediction Markets

The next iteration of the Oscars will take place on March 14th, 2027, and anticipation is building ahead of the 99th Academy Awards. 

Preliminary voting is scheduled for December 7th, 2026, while the final nominations will be revealed in the New Year on January 21st.

Polymarket’s Oscars’ prediction markets are already in full swing, enabling you to trade various categories including the Best Actor, Best Picture, and even the film that will receive the most nominations overall!

We’ll explore these markets in more detail below, while trying to identify the best value picks in selected categories.

We have an exclusive Polymarket bonus (CORG), and you can earn $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. If you want other options for betting on The Emmys, we’ve covered the top entertainment and culture prediction markets.

Best Picture Odds – “Yes” to the Odyssey and Why La Bola Negra May Offer a Significant Upside

“The Odyssey” | “Yes” at 53¢ | 52% Chance

One of the most anticipated films of 2026 according to IMDb, “The Odyssey” has also become the second-highest grossing movie of the year. It has yielded well over $621 million in US cinemas since its release, with only the record-breaking “Spider-Man: New Day” superseding this number.

Of course, commercial success doesn’t always translate into Oscars’ glory. However, the Odyssey is categorized as an epic fantasy action film, which is based on the Greek King Odysseus and his perilous journey home after the Trojan War.

While just a single fantasy/sci-fi film won the Best Picture Academy Award between 1929 and 2017, epics have enjoyed far greater success overall.

Through 2017, 46 of the 90 Best Picture award winners were also categorized as some kind of drama (51.1%). The Odyssey certainly fits this description, as it features high emotional stakes and studies a mythological history that’s characterized by human frailty.

You can trade “Yes” on “The Odyssey” winning Best Picture at 53¢, too, which offers tangible value. This film has a win probability of 52%, which is significantly higher than that of its nearest rival “La Bola Negra” (28%). 

There’s also the potential to flip your position for a profit, potentially after the final nominations are confirmed on January 21st. Alternatively, you may decide to hold until settlement, although this incurs a higher risk of loss and potential low-liquidity traps.

“La Bola Negra” | “No” at 29¢ | 28% Chance

The combined implied probability of either The Odyssey or La Bola Negra winning in this category is 80%. The latter film continues to generate huge market value, too, following its breakout win of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF).

This has proved an historical catalyst for Academy award success. It also sent the film’s “Yes” price rising from 23¢ on September 28th to the current benchmark of 29¢, a noticeable hike of 26.09%. 

What’s more, between 30 and 35 Best Picture winners can be categorized as either historical or period dramas. La Bola Negra has elements of both genres, which at least partially explains its strong festival momentum.

The movie has secured sizable Netflix backing, too. The streaming platform has invested between $4 million and $5 million to secure the distribution rights in North America.

La Bola Negra is clearly a strong contender, while its current “Yes” price has a higher potential upside than The Odyssey. This creates more flexibility when buying “Yes” shares and flipping them for a profit prior to settlement.

Best Actor Nominations – Consider Matt Damon, John Malkovich, and John Turturro

“Matt Damon” | “Yes” at 20¢ | 20% Chance

There’s a strong correlation between the Best Actor and Best Picture categories at The Oscars. In fact, approximately 47% of Best Actor contenders have come from Best Picture-nominated films, and you should factor this in when making your picks.

Ahead of the 2027 Academy Awards, Matt Damon currently stands out as a high-value pick. He stars as the Greek king Odysseus in the Odyssey epic, and playing the titular lead in such a high-profile, character-driven film makes him highly likely to at least receive a nomination.

The film is also a Universal production, and this studio is renowned as an aggressive marketer of its summer blockbusters. This could create huge momentum ahead of the winter nominations, benefiting both the film and Damon directly.

You can currently trade “Yes” on Damon winning the award at just 20¢. The true probability of this outcome occurring is arguably much higher than currently implied, too. Damon’s price could certainly rise slightly higher in the coming months, so we’d recommend locking in this value now.

“John Malkovich” | “Yes” at 43.8¢ | 43% Chance

The current frontrunner in this market is 73-year-old veteran John Malkovich. His work in Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine has been described by some as a career-best performance, with the actor earning rave reviews following the 53rd Telluride Film Festival. 

Prior to this festival starting on September 4th, “Yes” shares in Malkovich were priced at just 17¢. However, their value has since soared to 43.8¢, highlighting a 157.65% hike in just five weeks.

Support for Malkovich is also being driven by an emotive, ‘overdue’ narrative. He has only ever received two Academy Award nominations during a stellar career (both in the Best Supporting Actor category). He failed to win the Oscar on either occasion. This is driving significant trader sentiment on Polymarket and other top prediction market platforms, potentially causing Malkovich to be slightly overpriced.

His true win probability is certainly slightly lower than the current odds imply. There’s also minimal upside when buying in at the current price. This is especially true if your preferred strategy is to buy and subsequently flip positions for a short-term profit.

However, Major awards forecasting platforms such as Gold Derby position Malkovich as the definitive number-one contender for the Best Actor award. So, this trade offers value if you’re willing to buy and hold your position until settlement.

“John Turturro” | “Yes” at 2.8¢ | 2% Chance

As you can see, early Oscars’ prediction markets tend to heavily favor higher profile actors and films. While this contributes to overpriced favorites, it can also create significant value when trading “Yes” on critically acclaimed but less commercially viable projects.

For example, you can buy “Yes” on John Turturro being nominated for a Best Actor award in 2027.  Turturro stars as aging pickpocket Harry Lehman in “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York”. This crime thriller wowed audiences during its Sundance Film Festival premier back in January.

Sony Pictures Classics subsequently won a bidding war for the film’s rights, with this studio having a proven track record for turning such investments into successful Best Picture and Actor campaigns. 

The film’s projected release date of October 16th also coincides with the start of the autumn awards push. This means it will be in the news when nominations are first considered. You can also buy “Yes” on Turturro winning at just 2.8¢, creating a huge potential upside and selling opportunities later in the year.

Just note that Turturro has a nominal 2% win probability in this market. So, this is a high-risk pick that requires you to flip for a settlement in late autumn or the winter.

The Last Word – Will the Odyssey Dominate the 2027 Oscars?

You can also predict which film will earn the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards. Unsurprisingly, The Odyssey is dominating this market currently, and has a 84% chance of beating out its rivals.

The film’s win probability in this market has increased from just 40% on July 8th, driving its trading price higher too. The current ” Yes” price of 84¢ has minimal upside prior to settlement. However, buying and holding until resolution could unlock a 19.05% return in around five months.

When trading Oscars’ awards and nominations, it can be hard to identify great value picks with a positive EV. However, there are outcomes that offer a favorable win probability, while options like John Turturro in the Best Actor market have the potential to unlock sizable returns and higher liquidity.

Track your choice of markets closely too, while paying attention to daily price shifts and emerging trends. We’d also urge you to browse the Polymarket app for any new Oscars’ prediction markets that may be added in the future!

Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10.