Wynn UAE Casino Could Top Estimates, Analyst Draws Singapore Parallel

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have weighed heavily on Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) this year. However, some Wall Street analysts believe the operator’s upcoming United Arab Emirates casino resort will ultimately become a major driver of share price growth.

In a new report, Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino highlighted potential advantages with Wynn Al Marjan Island that could eventually facilitate a rebound by the gaming stock, including extending Wynn’s status as a premier luxury brand and tapping into pent-up regional demand in the region for a regulated gaming venue.

It’s widely believed that Wynn Al Marjan Island, which is slated to open in September 2027, will have a multi-year monopoly because UAE gaming regulators aren’t in a rush to approve another integrated resort.

With Wynn UAE Casino, Analyst Sees Singapore Potential

Supino compared the UAE casino market’s potential trajectory to that of Singapore – a comparison that’s been drawn before.

“Benchmarking against Singapore, another wealthy limited license casino market popular with tourists, suggests Wynn’s Al Marjan could beat the UAE GGR targets it laid out in December 2025,” notes the Wolfe Research analyst.

The UAE/Singapore casino market comparison is apt because the latter is home to just two integrated resorts while the most ambitious forecasts for the UAE indicate that the country will eventually be home to no more than four or five casino resorts.

It also sets a high bar. Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa are two of the most profitable gaming assets in the world. If Wynn Al Marjan Island achieves anywhere near that level of margin, Wynn stock could see a meaningful re-rating.

Why UAE Casino Revenue Projections Could Be Conservative

Previous estimates indicate the UAE could generate $3 billion to $5 billion in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) as other venues join Wynn Al Marjan Island. That would make it the fourth-largest casino market in the world behind Macau, Las Vegas and Singapore.

Wynn Al Marjan Island is expected to command a significant percentage of the emirates’ eventual GGR tally as the operator forecasts the venue could generate as much as $1.66 billion in yearly GGR when it fully ramps up.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from the Wynn venue could range from $390 million to $570 million, according to the operator’s estimates.

“According to Knight Frank, 43% of the UAE’s upcoming hotel room supply through 2030 is classified as luxury. One-third of the world’s population lives within a 4-hour flight of the UAE,” said Supino in his report.

If Wynn Al Marjan Island comes anywhere close to replicating Singapore’s high-margin success, the resort won’t just offset regional headwinds—it could become the primary growth engine for Wynn stock over the next decade.