Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello Weighs in on NFL Wildcard Weekend

Posted on: January 9, 2025, 06:47h. 

Last updated on: January 10, 2025, 09:56h.

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Johnny Avello, the popular Las Vegas Strip bookmaker, says the trader desk he oversees for DraftKings has grown from six people to 75 since he joined the company in 2018. DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations, Avello built the trader team and now says because the traders are so good at what they do, he doesn’t need to be as hands-on as he was in years past.

NFL Betting Grows

Betting on the hugely popular NFL is a big reason for that growth. One of the things Avello references — and something the league has done well lately —  is scheduling. With games Thursday through Monday, and even a couple of Christmas Day games this year, the NFL never loses momentum through the regular season, and that’s a boon for sportsbooks.

“And then you throw in a couple of college games as well, on a Tuesday,” said Avello, from his Las Vegas DraftKings’ office. “It’s a fabulous time for football enthusiasts.”

Wildcard Weekend

Starting this Saturday, the NFL Wildcard Weekend will feature six games over three days and plenty of betting storylines.

And there’s no better person than Avello to weigh in on this weekend’s games:

Chargers vs. Texans: Saturday 4:30 p.m. EST, CBS

• Spread: Chargers -3 (-105), Texans +3 (-115)
• Moneyline: Chargers -162, Texans +136
• Over/Under: 41.5

“There’s not a whole lot of line movement in these games, especially on the side. There is some total movement, but not spread movement,” Avello said. “Now, when I say that, some of the games have moved, but they’ve come back to the initial number that we opened up with. Chargers, being one of those. We opened this game 3. We did go down to 2.5 at some point yesterday, for a short period of time. Now we’re back to 3.”

Avello said most of the wagering is Chargers money.

If we’re somewhat lopsided on any game – and there’s a long way to go, these games could even change by the time we get to game time. But the Chargers do have quite a bit of money on them for this one.”

Avello said bettors are also positive on the connection between Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert.

“I think that bettors really like that,” Avello said. “Especially Harbaugh, coming to the team and taking them to this spot in his first year (as coach). And Herbert’s a good quality quarterback.”

Avello said the Teans looked like a Super Bowl contender coming into the season, and that they “could still get there,” even though things haven’t panned out that well for them.

“C.J. Stroud struggled a little bit lately, and I think the bettors have picked up on that, and that’s why they’re on the Chargers,” Avello said. “Now, with that being said, this could be a close one. But the bettors see this as the Chargers coming in with more momentum and playing better football at this point.”

Steelers vs. Ravens: Saturday 8 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime

• Spread: Steelers +9.5 (-108), Ravens -9.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Steelers +350, Ravens -455
• Over/Under: 43.5

“Lamar Jackson has numbers to be an MVP in any year. I mean, he’s just off the charts numbers,” said Avello.

Because these teams have played each other twice already this season, they’re familiar with each other, which should lead to a hard-fought game in Avello’s opinion. “Baltimore was a 3 point favorite at Pittsburgh. They lose the game, a low scoring game, 18-16. Then they’re at home, a little bit later in the year, we opened them up at 4, and the game got bet to 7. They actually buried the Steelers in that second game.”

Avello said bettors will likely use this game in a number of parlays over the weekend.

“We’re going to be absolutely loaded up on Baltimore money line and Baltimore money line parlays … Now you’re laying a stiff price. You’re laying five to one, but that’s the way the bettors like to play these big favorites, try to leverage the payoff a little better. So this game will probably be parlayed heavily with the Buffalo game, then some of that will certainly going to the Eagles game and then some other games also.”

Broncos vs. Bills: Sunday 1 p.m. EST, CBS

• Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-112), Bills -8.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Broncos +340, Bills -440
• Over/Under: 47.5

“The Bills have home field advantage for a couple of games, and their home field advantage is one of the stronger ones in the NFL. It’s probably worth two and a half to three points. The weather, the crowd, they just play well there. It’s a difficult place to go play,” Avello noted.

He added that Buffalo’s notoriously difficult weather conditions might actually play into the hands of their star quarterback, Josh Allen.

“As a matter of fact, he’d rather it be windy,” Avello said. “Other quarterbacks would struggle.”

Avello said the thing that could hurt the Bills, however, is their weak pass defense against a good Broncos team led by rookie QB Bo Nix, who’s had a great season so far.

“This is his first time, in playoff territory, and you know the Bills,” Avello said. “The one thing I don’t like about the Bills – their pass defense is very suspect. Their secondary doesn’t seem to have the coverage, and they let teams score a lot of points on them. But that’s their game. Can we score more points than the other opponent?”

DraftKings has the Bills as the favorite in the game, and Avello says most people expect them to win. “But are they going to cover that 8.5? The bettors will probably lay the money line,” he added.

Packers vs. Eagles: Sunday 4:30 p.m. EST, FOX

• Spread: Packers +4.5 (-105), Eagles -4.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Packers +190, Eagles -230
• Over/Under: 45.5

“You got to talk about the health of Jordan Love (Packers QB) and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts,” Avello said looking at this matchup.

He’s [Hurts] not out of concussion protocol yet, although he might be out by this morning. But we anticipated that he was going to play. And this number that we opened up, 4.5, was with him playing, and that number has held up. I’m 99% sure he’ll play. If he doesn’t, I’ll be shocked, and this number will fall like a rock.

The Packers’ issue, on the other hand, is that they didn’t play that well at the end of the year.

“Love may not be 100%,” he said, adding that “Christian Watson, to me, is a big deal on this team. To have him on the field, they seem to always play much better.”

The Eagles, he added, “are just a complete team all around … I mean, running back, Saquon Barkley, just a tremendous year. He had a week off last week, so he’s certainly ready to go.”

A good receiving corps and “probably the best defense of all the teams in the playoffs this year,” are also reason why Avello is high on the Eagles.

“I see them as a real deal, and probably can go far. But the 4.5, I don’t know if the 4.5 is going to hold up. And in my opinion, I think this game probably goes to 5, maybe even 5.5 by the time we get close to game time. It’s just settled right now and hasn’t moved much. The totals come down a little bit from 46.5 to 45.5. But, you know, we’ll see where the line goes. I don’t see it coming down, but I could see it going up a tick as we get more clarity on the health of the quarterbacks.”

Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Sunday 8 p.m. EST, NBC

• Spread: Commanders +3 (-105), Buccaneers -3 (-115)
• Moneyline: Commanders +145, Buccaneers -175
• Over/Under: 50.5

“If I was betting the game, I probably wouldn’t lay the 3. I’d probably be looking at the dog,” Avello said. I love Baker Mayfield’s style of play. This guy is probably the hardest working quarterback in the NFL. He gives it all every game,” he added.

Even so, Avello said the Bucs are kind of one dimensional. “You’ve got Mike Evans, that’s his go-to guy, and Bucky Irving, a good running back. They’ve got some good pieces, but I see them as an above-average team. I don’t see them as much more than that.”

The Commanders, on the other hand, may have already peaked, Avello said.

I think the end of the season wasn’t as good as the beginning of the season (for the Commanders). It wasn’t bad. He’s (rookie QB Jayden Daniels) capable of running and throwing the ball downfield. He can do a lot of good things. But again, he’s in a playoff atmosphere. Baker Mayfield has been in his atmosphere before, whereas Daniels has not.

Avello says he thinks the game’s 3-point spread is exactly where it should be. “Anything higher than that, which we were at the opener, 3.5, that was taken early. People saw that as value. So it’s been sitting at 3 now, and not a lot of movement there. It will probably fall down to 2.5.”

Vikings vs. Rams: Monday 8 p.m. EST, ESPN/ABC

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-108), Rams +1.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Vikings -118, Rams -102
• Over/Under: 47.5

“We opened this game Vikings 2.5. We’re down to 1.5. We’ve been as low as 1. As a matter of fact, we went even to the Rams 1 at one point, and now we’re back to Vikings again, 1.5,” Avello said of this matchup that was scheduled to be played in Southern California’s SoFi Stadium before this week’s devastating wildfires forced it to be moved to Glendale, Ariz.

Despite the venue change, Avello believes this will still be a good game for the Rams because it’s a good matchup for them.

“The concern with the Vikings coming into this game was that were playing Sunday night (against the Lions). They’re playing for No. 1 seed, which means that they get a bye week. They win the division. Everything was looking positive they could win that game. Well, they lost that game, and now they are a five seed. I don’t think the coach did a good job in that game. They should have kicked field goals when they had the opportunity, instead of playing the Lions’ game and going for it all the time,” Avello said.

Concerns over QB Sam Darnold’s future with the Vikes could also factor into the game.

I don’t know if this is on players minds or not, but if Sam Darnold takes this team deeper into the playoffs, he becomes the quarterback, and then maybe they think about trading the rookie when he comes back next year, trying to get some draft picks. So I don’t know if that’s in a player’s mind. I think at hand right now is to go in and try to win this football game.”

While he says Darnold “has no proof that he’s excels in these type of games, and last week was part of that, Avello doesn’t give him the full blame. “I think the Vikings are a quality team. I think this is a tough matchup for them, because the Rams have a quarterback that’s won a Super Bowl. They’ve got great receivers.”

Odds: DraftKings