S&P Global: Sports Still King on Prediction Markets

It’s not earth-shattering news to those that avidly follow prediction markets, but sports event contracts remain the lifeblood — a status that’s likely to be amplified now that the U.S. is into the heart of football season.

The S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan US third-quarter 2026 Consumer Insights survey asked respondents about their use of prediction market platforms, finding that just 10% of respondents traded on a yes/no exchange over the past year, but 70% of prediction market users traded sports event contracts.

That percentage confirms something that may make sportsbook operators uncomfortable: the proliferation of prediction market advertising is having the desired impact. Still, the industry has work to do to capture more attention among consumers.

It appears as though U.S. prediction market traders are most familiar with five operators, a quintet including DraftKings and Polymarket, among others.

Sports Still the Heavy Hitter

Whether it’s by way of timed cryptocurrency markets, financial derivatives, mention markets and political event contracts, among others, prediction market companies are attempting to lean on growth outlets beyond sports. However, weaning traders off sports event contracts is easier said than done.

“Seventy percent said they had traded on sports-related outcomes, compared to 36% trading on economic or financial outcomes and 33% trading on political outcomes,” adds S&P. “Approximately one-quarter (26%) indicated they had traded on news and entertainment outcomes, and 11% cited trading on other outcomes, such as word mentions, weather or cryptocurrency.”

Overall, just 2% of respondents said they exclusively traded non-sports event contracts over the past year. Twenty-one percent of those polled said they either bet with a traditional sportsbook or traded sports derivatives over that period.

A Familiar Constituency

As is the case with standard sportsbooks, the prediction market industry’s core customer base is young men — something that’s sparked rebuke from critics.

The S&P survey indicates that 61% of prediction market traders are under the age of 35 while just 13% are 55 years old or older and the bulk of those market participants are men.

“Two-thirds (66%) of prediction market traders were men. Prediction market traders tended to be spread across all states, rather than skewed toward states where sportsbook gambling is prohibited,” concludes the research firm. “The survey data shows a correlation with crypto, as 55% of prediction market traders reported buying and/or selling cryptocurrency over the past year.”