Prediction Market Election Bets Opposed by Democrat, GOP Voters

With Election Day just three weeks away, prediction market operators are counting on surging volume in political event contracts, but many voters oppose those derivatives.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, published earlier today, indicates there’s bipartisan objection to prediction markets offering trades linked to electoral outcomes. Overall, 60% of voters aren’t fans of wagering on elections. Along party lines, 61% of Republican voters feel that way while 69% of Democrats don’t want electing betting to be available, according to the poll.

When it comes to election-based event contracts, which have drawn scrutiny at the state level, just 16% of Republicans told the Reuters/Ipsos pollsters that they’re in favor of those bets being available while 23% said they’re unsure.

On the other side of the aisle, 12% of Democrats said they’re on board with the availability of political event contracts with 18% saying they’re unsure.

Election Season Is Important to Prediction Markets

Despite voters’ objections to political betting, yes/no exchanges are unlikely to pull those contracts and the imminence of Election Day isn’t the only reason behind that line of thinking.

Yes/no exchanges are attempting to source growth outside the world of sports and political event contracts represent one of the best non-sports growth outlets for the prediction market industry.

Some operators previously forecast a spike in volume leading up to the 2026 midterm election – a thesis that’s rooted in precedent. Stripping out major sports events such as Super Bowls and the 2026 World Cup, some of the most traded events in the prediction market industry’s young life span include the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 New York mayoral race.

While political pundits, experts and prediction markets themselves widely expect that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives, there’s a slew of heavily funded, hotly contested gubanotorial and Senate races that could drive increased volume on all-or-nothing exchanges over the next several weeks.

Voters More Opposed to Political Wagers Than Sports Betting

The Reuters/Ipsos also indicates that voters are more opposed to political event contracts than they are to betting on professional sports. Forty-three percent of respondents said they don’t favor the legality of sports wagering while 29% are on board with it and 25% are undecided.

Along party lines, 44% of Republicans and half of Democrats object to legal sports betting while a third of GOP voters and 29% of Democrats approve of it.

There are sources of agreement. For example, 63% of those polled said bettor and traders should not be able to transact in event contracts pertaining to government policy decisions while 65% believe derivatives tied to U.S. military action shouldn’t be available.