Wealthsimple Brings Prediction Markets to Canada in New Kalshi Deal

• Wealthsimple and Kalshi are rolling out “Wealthsimple Predict,” a standalone app giving Canadians access to regulated event-based wagering
• Users can trade roughly 4,000 event contracts strictly tied to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends
• Due to Canadian regulatory constraints, highly popular sports and political betting contracts will be entirely excluded

Wealthsimple and Kalshi are teaming up to bring prediction markets to Canada this summer, the companies announced Thursday (June 18).

Called Wealthsimple Predict, the new dedicated application will allow retail investors the ability to trade approximately 4,000 event-based contracts on Kalshi.

Most importantly, those event-based contracts will be in categories Wealthsimple is allowed to offer in the Canadian market. So, “no” to sports and politics event contracts. But “yes” to climate, financial markets, and economic indicators.

Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world – where inflation is headed, what happens to rates, or how the year unfolds,” said Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and Chief Product Officer, Wealthsimple.

“Until now, Canadians have had limited access. Wealthsimple Predict gives Canadians a clean, well-designed way to access these markets, with education and guardrails built in from day one.”

CIRO Approval Secured

The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) approved Wealthsimple to offer event and forecast contract trading in March, regulating them as derivatives. This approval is limited to pre-approved categories with a settlement period of 30 days or longer.

Following the initial March announcement, CIRO and the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) issued a joint warning, noting that any “failure to comply with applicable requirements… may lead to enforcement actions.”

Enforcement Action

The CSA is an umbrella organization that coordinates Canada’s provincial and territorial securities regulators to harmonize rules across the country’s capital markets.

CIRO is the national self-regulatory organization that governs investment dealers, mutual fund dealers and trading activity on Canadian debt and equity marketplaces.

Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. is the only other CIRO Investment Dealer Member to have been authorized to allow trading in event contracts.

Kalshi operates in the U.S. as an authorized event contracts exchange, with federal authority from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Polymarket, Kalshi’s competitor, was banned in Ontario after a settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission in 2025. That ban runs until 2027.

U.S. Legal Fight

In the U.S., a core legal fight in several states is about whether federal derivative laws pre-empt state gaming laws, such that CFTC-registered prediction market platforms aren’t subject to state gaming laws.

In Canada, there is no federal regulator asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, according to Evan Thomas, a lawyer advising fintech clients. Because both securities and gaming regulation are handled provincially, there is no federal pre-emption argument. “To me, the question is whether the Ontario and Alberta gaming regulators and policymakers are open to prediction markets involving sports,” Thomas said.

Future of Prediction Markets

That would entail major obstacles to work through, he added, including ensuring all stakeholders are comfortable that prediction markets are legal under the Criminal Code and current iGaming frameworks. There might even need to be statutory or regulatory amendments at the federal or provincial level.

Provincial gaming regulators may need to build institutional expertise to oversee exchange-traded contracts, which raise different risks than traditional sportsbooks.

“In theory, if the regulators and policymakers in Ontario or Alberta were open to it, a prediction market platform could become a registered iGaming operator,” Thomas said.

“And it’s possible. The demand in Canada for sports event contracts is clearly there,” he added, noting that prediction markets can offer better pricing and fairer structures than traditional sportsbooks. “Not allowing a regulated alternative simply pushes Canadians towards unregulated markets, which hurts consumers rather than protecting them.”

Strategic Wrinkle

Regulators and policy-makers are watching, he added, so it’s not hard to see how prediction markets in Canada offering sports could develop over time.

“There’s also a strategic wrinkle for the major U.S. platforms,” said Thomas. “They are spending enormous legal resources arguing that their products are federally regulated financial derivatives, not gaming. Seeking a provincial gaming registration in Canada might concede the point they’re fighting in U.S. courts.

“Even if a Canadian framework was open to them, they may not want to walk through that door while the U.S. preemption argument is unresolved.”