VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Why Tarik Skubal Could Trigger the Biggest World Series Odds Shift

Major League Baseball (MLB) trade deadline buzz is at a pitch, a time of the season when every Las Vegas sportsbook risk room is trying to price an event that hasn’t happened yet – and may not happen at all.

MLB teams could look completely different a week from now, with pennant and wild-card races reshaped. Teams’ World Series odds could shorten immediately. Or clubs expected to be sellers could instead stand pat – or even become buyers.

The MLB trade deadline is Aug. 3. Will the Toronto Blue Jays buy or sell? Will the Milwaukee Brewers add another starter? Will the New York Yankees acquire another bat with Aaron Judge out with a rib injury, and maybe some catching help as well? 

Rumors Move Markets

Then there’s weighing rumors and social media chatter against actual journalism from baseball insiders, all of which impact line movements. 

Is there anything to the rumors of a George Springer-Houston Astros reunion, with the Astros’ need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder, and Springer’s improved play of late (three home runs, 12 runs batted in, a .326 batting average, and a .957 OPS over the past 15 days), according to ESPN?

And speaking of the Blue Jays, there have been rumors for weeks that the team might be willing to unload starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, and relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman.

Skubal Headlines Deadline

MLB executives see the L.A. Dodgers as a landing spot if the Detroit Tigers trade starting pitcher Tarik Skubal, with Shohei Ohtani’s knee injury preventing him from pitching. Skubal is the biggest domino that people are watching. Media reports said the Chicago Cubs, Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays are also inquiring.

Media reports also said the Boston Red Sox are shopping for a shortstop. Several other teams, like the Dodgers and Rays, are looking at catching upgrades.

And if the San Diego Padres decide to move reliever Mason Miller, would the Pittsburgh Pirates, very much in the mix for a National League wild card spot (two games out), take a run at acquiring him to transform the back end of their bullpen?

Managing Sportsbook Risk

“The Braves probably stand out the most for me, as they have a good chance to win the NL East and a possibility to get a bye in the wild card round of the playoffs, but their starting pitching looks suspect beyond Chris Sale,” said Chris Bennett, Sportsbook Director at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. “It would make sense for them to try to acquire an elite starting pitcher before the deadline. That could give them a much better chance to take out the other contenders in the National League.

“There are a lot of teams fighting for playoff spots in the American League. There are so many possibilities there. None of the teams are great. They could all use help. I don’t have a good feel for which teams, if any, are going to make a splash before the trade deadline.”

Tracking Insider Reports

The MLB trade deadline can be challenging for sportsbook traders. 

“I’d keep an eye out for potential blockbusters that could vault one of the 6-8 contenders up a few spots and affect their pricing dramatically,” said Phill Gray, a former head of sports betting operations and now a sports betting industry consultant. “It’s akin to the various drafts in a way, that some public knowledge could get out before pricing is adjusted.

“Generally, I’d stay away from opinion pricing unless there was a concrete chance something big was going to take place. Even given all pricing is on feeds now, if that looked to be the case, I’d suspend betting on the affected markets or reduce limits greatly to avoid any advantage players coming in with very large bets.” 

Bennett added that he won’t make many line adjustments until a deal is official. 

Watching Contending Teams

“There are so many rumors and conversations that it can make you dizzy if you try to quantify everything,” he said. “I set our mobile app limits appropriately so that if someone gets valuable information about a trade before us and places a bet accordingly, it won’t put us in a bad spot. I am tracking my information sources closely so I can react to trades and move the odds as quickly as possible. It’s a fun challenge.”

Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager for BetMGM in Las Vegas, said the MLB trade deadline generally has less impact on betting markets than trade deadlines in other sports.

MLB is more of a team game, where one player will have less impact than in a league like the National Basketball Association (NBA), he added.

World Series Implications

“A good example this year is the Philadelphia Phillies, with plenty of talk and rumors that they are looking to make a move,” said Cipollini. “We can feel fairly confident that this news would be true, getting to the end of the championship window with this core. It’ll take everything you have to beat the Dodgers. So, a team like that, we will keep their future price short despite them being on a five-game losing streak and looking terrible post-All-Star break.”

Skubal, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, is one exception to the rule, Cipollini added. 

“If a team emerged as a rumored favorite [to acquire him], we may trim their price proactively,” he said.

“The other problem this season is that the Dodgers are such a big favorite at the moment; it would take something big or multiple moves to really make an impact for some of these other teams. The Dodgers (+170 at BetMGM to win the World Series) will be the favorite regardless of what happens.”