Pope Francis Death Renders $1 Million in Bets Against New Catholic Leader as Losers

Posted on: April 21, 2025, 01:57h. 

Last updated on: April 21, 2025, 02:26h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.
  • Pope Francis is dead at 88
  • Polymarket is taking bets on who will be Francis’ successor
  • A new pope is typically announced within 15 days of a pope’s death

Pope Francis is dead at the age of 88. His passing comes on Easter Monday, only hours after he delivered a blessing at the end of the Easter mass presided over by Cardinal Angelo Comastri at the Vatican’s St. Peter’s Square.

Pope Francis odds Catholic
Pope Francis is seen in Vatican City on Sept. 30, 2023. A leading online prediction market exchange is taking bets on who will succeed Francis following his death on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025. (Image: Shutterstock)

The Argentinian-born Jorge Mario Bergoglio was the first Latin American pontiff to lead the Catholic Church. Francis did so since his papacy began on March 13, 2025. His reign ended officially at 7:35 am local Rome time on Monday, April 21, 2025.

Francis’ death initiates a series of rites and rituals that will conclude with cardinals gathering inside the Sistine Chapel where their Conclave will officially appoint his successor. History shows that new popes are typically installed within 15 to 20 days of a pope’s death.

The papacy of Pope Benedict XVI, the last pope to succeed a pope in death, began on April 19, 2005, 17 days after Pope John Paul II died on April 2, 2005. 

Pope’s Passing Bettors’ Loss

Francis’ death means that $1 million in bets made on the prediction wagering exchange Polymarket will likely be rendered as losses. Polymarket, a peer-to-peer wagering exchange that primarily deals in cryptocurrency, launched a market in February after Francis was hospitalized, asking bettors if there will be a new pope in 2025.

Bettors anticipated Francis’ healing, as more than $1 million was bet on the contract, “No new pope in 2025.” With the pope’s death, those shares now come with implied odds of less than 1%.

The Polymarket market, “Who will be the next pope?” has more than $2.7 million on its outcome, with $1,000,570 staked on “no new pope.” For those who put money on the front-runners to succeed Francis, their stakes are now rather attractive.

Italy-born Pietro Parolin, 70, the now-former Cardinal Secretary of State, is considered the betting favorite at implied odds of 36%. Francis appointed Parolin as secretary, a role that terminated with the pope’s passing. As secretary, Parolin handled all political and diplomatic functions of the Holy See and Vatican City.

Philippines-born Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is another front-runner at implied odds of 26%. Tagle shares many of Francis’ progressive views, including the former pope’s support of LGBTQ+ people, as well as divorced and remarried Catholics.

No other Cardinal or Catholic leader has implied odds over 10%.

Pope Props

Unlike its primary competitor, Kalshi, which abides by rules directed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and therefore isn’t running markets on the papacy, Polymarket is operating in a wild-west environment where abiding by rules, morals, and societal norms aren’t common. Case in point — Polymarket has a slew of pope-related contracts that will likely ruffle some Catholics’ feathers.

Will the next pope be gay?” is one such contract. About $52K has been bet, with the bulk of the action on “no.”

Will the next pope be trans?” also has implied odds of less than 1%. Roughly $18K has been wagered there.

Polymarket bettors believe there’s an 11% chance the next pope will be Black. As for when the next pope will be announced, before May 9 has implied odds of 59%.