Sen. Elizabeth Warren Remains Political Betting Favorite After Thwarting Debate Attacks

Posted on: October 16, 2019, 08:57h. 

Last updated on: October 16, 2019, 11:38h.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren remains the 2020 Democratic political betting frontrunner after fending off a series of attacks from her competition during the party’s fourth debate, this time held in Westerville, Ohio.

Elizabeth Warren 2020 odds political betting
Elizabeth Warren managed to fend off her Democratic opponents during the fourth presidential party debate. (Image: John Minchillo/AP)

Online political betting exchange PredictIt saw Warren shares of securing the Democratic Party’s nomination for president move wildly during the debate. Her price dropped as much as four cents, as her rivals attacked her on “Medicare-for-all” and plans to increases taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Look, I understand that this is hard. But I think as Democrats we are going to succeed when we dream big and fight hard, not when we dream small and quit before we get started,” Warren countered.

The constant attacks on her agenda solidifies her position as the party favorite. Her PredictIt shares of winning the Democratic nomination have rebounded to 45 cents. Former VP Joe Biden is next at a distant 19 cents, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders third at 12 cents.

Dominating Performance

Warren being the target of the 12 candidates on stage provided her with the most airtime. She spoke for 22.8 minutes to control the conversation, Biden 16.7 minutes, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar 13.3 minutes, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke 13.2 minutes, and Sanders 13.1 minutes.

The Real Clear Politics polling average still has Biden with a six-point lead. But three of the four most recent polls have Warren with the advantage. US sportsbooks can’t take wagers on political outcomes, but UK oddsmakers can.

William Hill, one of the largest High Street bookmakers, has Warren at 4/5 (implied odds 55.56 percent) to win the 2020 Democratic ticket. A $100 bet would net $80. Biden trails at 7/2, a $100 wager profiting $350. Despite not even being in the race, former First Lady Hillary Clinton is third at 9/1.

Political pundit Bill Burton said of Warren’s Tuesday night performance, “Warren has done a good job at remaining steady despite the arrows in her direction. But she is still missing answers to core questions about her plans.” Burton is a Democratic strategist who worked for former President Barack Obama.

Regardless of who his opponent is, President Donald Trump isn’t threatened.

“You would think there is NO WAY that any of the Democrat Candidates that we witnessed last night could possibly become President of the United States. Now you see why they have no choice but to push a totally illegal & absurd Impeachment of one of the most successful Presidents!” Trump tweeted this morning.

Impeachment Odds

Trump was perhaps the biggest winner last night. During the Democratic debate, his PredictIt impeachment odds actually lengthened.

Prior to the Democratic presidential hopefuls squaring off, the PredictIt shares on Trump being impeached in his first term were at 72 cents. During the debate, however, they fell substantially to 65 cents – a nearly 10 percent drop.

They’ve slightly rebounded, shares now trading at 69 cents.