Polymarket Bettors Praying Their Pope Francis Bets Win, Kalshi Takes More Holy Approach

Posted on: March 4, 2025, 09:01h. 

Last updated on: March 4, 2025, 09:15h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.
  • Pope Francis remains hospitalized in Rome
  • Polymarket is offering bets on the pope’s fate
  • Polymarket deals in cryptocurrency 

Betting exchange Polymarket has ruffled some feathers for offering odds on the fate of Pope Francis.

Polymarket Pope Francis odds Kalshi
Pope Francis waves during an appearance in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Sept. 15, 2022. The pope has been hospitalized for three weeks, prompting an online betting market Polymarket to offer odds on the religious leader’s outcome. (Image: Shutterstock)

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, has been hospitalized at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital since mid-February.

Reports surfaced Tuesday that the 88-year-old has endured two episodes of “acute respiratory failure.” The Vatican says the pope is on oxygen after undergoing a procedure to remove a buildup of secretions that followed two bronchoscopies.

While followers of Catholicism and Christians around the world pray for Pope Francis’ recovery, it’s a quite different mood on Polymarket, the peer-to-peer prediction market that allows bettors to stake money on outcomes on everything ranging from politics and cultural events to business and sports.

Pew Research

Polymarket isn’t sidestepping the grave situation surrounding the leader of the Catholic Church. The website currently has seven event contracts involving the pope.

They range from betting on whether Francis will step down before July (bettors currently give it a 15% chance) to whether there will be “a new pope in 2025” (56% chance).

The latter question, though it doesn’t specifically mention death, is seemingly a market implying if Francis will die. As of Tuesday morning, more than $65K had been bet on the question.

However, the contract asking, “New pope in 2025?” has more than $710,500 staked. The current odds imply a 72% chance.

You guys are all weirdos betting on this guy to pass,” read one comment on Polymarket.

Polymarket bettors think Pietro Parolin, who is currently the Vatican’s secretary of state, is the front-runner to become the next pope at implied odds of 30%. As for whether President Donald Trump will meet with Pope Francis this year, those odds aren’t great at just a 6% likelihood.

Dr. Theodore Iwashyna, a professor of pulmonary and critical care medicine at Johns Hopkins University, told CNN that the pope undergoing two bronchoscopies within a short period likely means that Francis is “quite ill.”

Francis has served as pope since March 2013 when he succeeded Pope Benedict after he stunned the world by announcing his resignation. Benedict, the first pope to resign in nearly 600 years, held the title of pope emeritus until he died in 2022.

Regulatory Roundup

In 2022, Polymarket agreed to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an independent agency of the US government that regulates futures, swaps, and certain options, which resulted in the platform banning customers in the US.

The CFTC, aided by federal law enforcement, is currently amid an investigation to determine if Polymarket has upheld its end of the bargain. In November, the FBI raided Polymarket founder and CEO Shane Coplan’s Manhattan apartment.  

The CFTC also continues to challenge whether Polymarket rival Kalshi, which does accept US customers, can offer contracts on elections and sports. The CFTC has ordered the platforms it regulates such as Kalshi to avoid contracts involving or referencing “terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law.”

Presently, Kalshi has no contracts involving the pope’s fate.