Polymaket Leads World Cup Pricing as Prediction Markets Account for 27% of Sports Betting

Polymarket featured superior pricing over the course of the World Cup, marking the second consecutive marquee sporting event in which a prediction market operator beat traditional sportsbooks in pricing.

Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender says that helped by lower fees, Polymarket offered the best pricing across each of the World Cup’s 104 games with an average implied vig of 2.7%. If Polymarket is removed from the equation, DraftKings and FanDuel — the two largest domestic sportsbook operators — had the best pricing in 38 and seven games, respectively, according to the analyst.

Bender has consistently tracked pricing data since the 2025 NFL season and while yes/no exchanges had some bumps on that front during U.S. football season, considerable strides are being made.

He points out that the World Cup and the NCAA Tournament mark two consecutive “tentpole” events in which prediction markets featured superior pricing relative to traditional sportsbooks.

Does Prediction Market Pricing Advantage Matter?

The answer to that question boils down to the type of customer. As Bender points out, sharp bettors, many of whom have gravitated to prediction markets, and market makers are price-sensitive and will scrap for every basis point in advantage they can get.

Conversely, most retail bettors, also known as “recs” to the pros on prediction markets, are usually less price-sensitive. That cohort of customers is more apt to focus on issues such as accessibility in their respective states, brand awareness and customer interface.

Following the World Cup, there’s likely to be a seasonal volume lull for both sportsbooks and yes/no exchanges, but the next pricing test for the latter arrives in about six weeks as turnover will mount in advance of the start of the 2026 NFL season.

World Cup Was Volume Boon for Prediction Markets

With the World Cup in the books, at least two things are clear. The tournament was a significant customer acquisition event and major volume driver for prediction markets.

Daily active U.S. users of the Polymarket app swelled following the start of the competition while H2 Gambling Capital estimates that prediction market activity accounted for 27% of all regulated sports wagering in the U.S. over the course of the tournament.

With that 27% figure in mind, it’s worth remembering that volume on yes/no exchanges and sportsbook handle are two different data points. Prediction market turnover measures both sides of trades — buys and sells — while sportsbook handle represents the total dollar amount bet on an event.