Political Bettors Already Wagering on 2024 Election, Sen. Kamala Harris the Frontrunner

Posted on: August 20, 2020, 02:07h. 

Last updated on: August 20, 2020, 02:38h.

Political bettors who feel the 2020 election is essentially a done deal are turning to 2024 and putting money on the next presidential outcome.

political bettors 2020 odds 2024 election
California Senator Kamala Harris is the way-too-early 2024 presidential favorite among political bettors. (Image: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

PredictIt launched a new marker today, asking, “Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?” Democratic Party shares are leading the early betting at 54 cents. Republican shares are at 49 cents. Libertarian and Green party shares are at two pennies.

More than 1,600 shares were traded in the immediate hours after PredictIt launched the new market. Bettors will need to wait more than four years to see a potential full return on their wagers. In the interim, they can take profits by buying low and selling high.

Kamala 2024?

2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who would be 78 years old at the time of his inauguration should he beat President Donald Trump on November 3, is largely expected to be a one-term president because of his age. The former VP suggested as much, calling himself a “transition candidate.”

That’s why Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), is the 2024 betting favorite. UK bookmakers, which are permitted to offer legal lines on political outcomes, something not the case in legal sports betting states in the US, have Harris at 6/1 to win in 2024.

Harris accepted the Democratic vice presidential nomination, becoming the first black woman and the first person of Indian descent to be nominated for national office by a major party, in a primetime address Wednesday. In doing so, Harris, by virtue of being Joe Biden’s running mate, has sealed an inside track to being President in 2024,” PredictIt’s daily briefing report stated.

Since John Adams became the first vice president to become president back in 1789, 14 of 47 VPs have since gone on to become Commander-in-Chief.

But the bookmakers and bettors still feel there’s a relatively good chance that Biden would seek a second term if elected to one. Biden’s shares are the same as Harris of winning in 2024 at 6/1.

Trump is at 16/1, a line that assumes he loses this fall and seeks a second and final term in 2024. Some other notables include former First Lady Michelle Obama (25/1), Ivanka Trump (33/1), and former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Kanye West (50/1).

Biden for Now

This week’s Democratic National Convention has given Biden a small bump in the political betting markets.

The Democratic 2020 presidential candidate’s shares of winning on November 3 are trading around 60 cents. Prior to his announcement that Harris would be his running mate, Biden’s shares were trading slightly lower at 57 cents.

Trump’s shares are down to 44 cents of winning come November 3. Prior to COVID-19 wreaking havoc around the world and threatening global economies, Trump was the 2020 favorite, his shares in February in the mid-50s.

PredictIt bettors feel a blue wave is approaching. The market asking about the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election has a Democrat-controlled House and Senate leading at 50 cents. A Democratic House and Republican Senate is second at 38 cents.