Joe Biden Loses ‘Presumptive’ Democratic Nominee Tag, Increases 2020 Betting Lead

Posted on: August 19, 2020, 02:17h. 

Last updated on: August 19, 2020, 02:40h.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is no longer the “presumptive” nominee for the Democratic Party to take on President Donald Trump this November.

Joe Biden odds Trump 2020
Former VP Joe Biden is one step closer to achieving his life-long dream of becoming President of the United States. (Image: ABC News)

On Tuesday, Democrats made it official: the 77-year-old is their man to challenge Trump. And if political bettors and oddsmakers have the race right, the party is making a solid bet.

The day after Biden officially won and accepted the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential ticket, his PredictIt share price in securing the White House has increased. In the market asking, “Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?” Biden’s shares are trading at 60 cents. Trump shares are at 43 cents.

“Last night, folks from across the country came together to show how much stronger we are when we stand united,” Biden declared. “It is the honor of my life to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for President of the United States of America.”

Let the Games Begin

Americans are being bombarded by political campaign ads from Biden and Trump. Both campaigns are said to have similar war chests on hand. But Trump, as reported this week, is likely to soon receive millions of dollars from Las Vegas Sands billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

It’s not just PredictIt bettors who feel Biden’s odds of becoming the next Commander-in-Chief are bettering. While no state in the US with legal sports betting presently allows oddsmakers to take bets on political outcomes, in the UK it’s commonplace.

The UK books all had Trump favored prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. But over the past several months, Biden has emerged as the front-runner. His odds have further shortened during this week’s Democratic National Convention.

With Biden officially accepting his party’s nomination, William Hill shortened his odds of winning on November 3 from 4/5 (-125) to 8/11 (-138). The slight change implies a winning chance adjustment of 55.56 percent to 57.89 percent.   

Trump’s odds are at +115, an implied chance 46.51 percent.

Battleground States

The US presidency is expected to once again come down to several key swing states. Real Clear Politics believes there are 17 states up for grabs that will determine the election: Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Virginia, Maine, and Ohio.

On PredictIt, Biden is leading in 13 of those states — Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Maine. Trump is leading in just four — Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia.

The RCP polling average generally agrees with PredictIt bettors. But with two exceptions. pollsters have Trump with a small lead in North Carolina, and Biden a small edge in Ohio.

Smarkets, another political betting exchange, has odds on when the presidential winner will be declared. The favorite is November 4 at -225. Other options are November 9 or later (+450), November 5-8 (+460), and November 3 (+500).