VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Sharp Money Fades Seahawks as Circa Sees Patriots Action

Heavy betting action on the New England Patriots ahead of Thursday’s NFL kickoff is driven less by confidence in New England than by bettors fading the Seattle Seahawks, according to Circa Sports risk manager Jamey Pileggi.

“Betting is coming back towards the Patriots side,” he said. “A lot of sharp action is on New England. This happens every year. Super Bowl hangover.”

The game kicks off tonight at Lumen Field in Seattle at 8:20 p.m. EDT in a Super Bowl rematch, with the Seahawks set to unveil their championship banner prior to kickoff. Seattle defeated New England 29-13 in February.

On the Circa Sports moneyline, Seattle is favored at -180, while New England comes in at +155. The Seahawks are 3-point favorites (-120), with the Patriots at +3 (even money). Circa originally opened New England as 5.5-point underdogs earlier this summer, Pileggi noted.

Sharp Money Backs Patriots

With lineups locked and kickoff looming, bettors are shifting their focus to key positional matchups.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was sacked six times by Seattle in the Super Bowl. Can New England’s offensive line contain the Seahawks’ pressure packages, or will Maye be forced to scramble all night?

On offense, eyes are on how Maye targets A.J. Brown, the star receiver acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, Seattle turns to rookie Jadarian Price as its lead back following the departure of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency.

Travel Tilts 49ers Action

Friday morning’s game in Australia—airing Thursday, Sept. 10 at 8:35 p.m. EDT on Netflix—features an NFC West clash between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers arrived in Melbourne on Sept. 4 to acclimate to the 17-hour time difference, whereas the Rams scheduled their arrival just 24 hours before kickoff.

At Circa Sports, the 49ers are 3.5-point underdogs (even money), with the Rams favored by 3.5 points (-120). Los Angeles is -215 on the moneyline, while San Francisco comes in at +185.

“I think that’s why we’ve gotten a little bit more money on San Fran so far,” Pileggi said. “That could be interesting. The Rams were the ‘it’ team in the offseason, so it’s going to be public money on them. But this game is going to lean more San Francisco because of the travel.”

Rams Build Fearsome Front

The Rams upgraded their pass rush in June by acquiring star edge rusher Myles Garrett from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for edge rusher Jared Verse and three draft picks.

Los Angeles bolstered its front four further on Aug. 30 when three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald ended a two-year retirement to rejoin the team. Donald, however, will not play in Friday’s season opener in Australia.

Industrywide, the American Gaming Association (AGA) projects legal U.S. NFL sports betting handle to reach $29.5 billion for the 2026–27 season. Most bettors will spread wagers across multiple platforms, according to a recent study by Optimove, which found 64% of surveyed NFL bettors plan to use at least two sportsbooks, while 16% expect to use three or more.

Heading into the season, sportsbooks favor the Rams as a top Super Bowl contender.

Raiders Create Major Liability

When asked which team recreational bettors tend to overvalue entering the season, Pileggi pointed to local favorite Las Vegas. Operating primarily in Nevada, Circa Sports consistently carries heavy public liability on the Raiders.

“That’s where we get the most rec action,” Pileggi said, noting that Circa’s cumulative futures liability could cost the book roughly $1 million if the Raiders win the Super Bowl.

“I’m not too worried about that,” he added. “I don’t think this is their year.”

Looking ahead to Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium, Circa lists the Raiders as 3.5-point favorites (-105), with Miami at +3.5 (-115). On the moneyline, Las Vegas is favored at -185, while Miami comes back at +160.

Beyond local action, sharp and public money alike is leaning into another AFC West contender.

“A popular team players seem to like is the Broncos,” Pileggi said. “If [quarterback] Bo Nix didn’t get hurt, they should have been in the Super Bowl against New England. A lot of people like [head coach] Sean Payton. They are in a tough division, though. That division is pretty popular in itself, with the Chargers and the Chiefs, with [Patrick] Mahomes coming back from injury. That division has been getting a lot of action.”

Broncos Draw Futures Interest

Surprisingly, Pileggi noted, this marks the first season in recent memory without a marquee offseason injury disrupting futures lines. By contrast, a early-season injury to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow last year forced significant line adjustments across Circa’s board.

Beyond straight wagers, prop markets continue to draw massive handle, led by the first-touchdown-scorer market.

“It’s a quick hit for people,” Pileggi said. “They make a bet, and it can be graded in 10 minutes. It’s fun.”