VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Sharp Money Fades Seahawks as Circa Takes Patriots Action

According to Jamey Pileggi, risk manager at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas, action on the New England Patriots at even money appears driven less by confidence in New England than by bettors fading the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in tonight’s National Football League (NFL) season opener.

“Betting is coming back towards the Patriots side,” he said. “A lot of sharp action is on New England. This happens every year. Super Bowl hangover.”

Super Bowl Rematch Opens Season

The game kicks off tonight (Sept. 9) at Lumen Field in Seattle at 8:20pm EDT for a Super Bowl rematch. The Seahawks will unveil their championship banner to start things off. 

Seattle defeated the Patriots 29-13 in February.

On the Circa moneyline, Seattle is -180, with New England at +155. The Seahawks are -3 at -120; the Patriots are +3 at even money. A few months back, Circa opened at +5.5 on the Patriots, Pileggi said.

Sharp Money Backs Patriots

Bettors are focused more now on game matchups, now that lineups are set and kickoff is close. 

Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye was sacked six times by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl game. Can the Patriots overcome the Seahawks’ pressure packages, or will he be scrambling all night?

How will Maye use A.J. Brown, the star receiver the Pats brought over from the Philadelphia Eagles? How does Jadarian Price adapt to being the No. 1 running back for Seattle now that Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III has moved on to the Kansas City Chiefs as a free agent?

Travel Tilts 49ers Action

Tomorrow (Sept. 10) night’s game in Australia, 8:35pm EDT, broadcast on Netflix, features the L.A. Rams versus the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers traveled to Australia Sept. 4 to acclimate to the time zone. The Rams are scheduled to arrive 24 hours before the start of the game (Friday morning, Australia time).

At Circa, the 49ers are 3.5-point underdogs at even money, while the Rams are 3.5-point favorites at -120. Los Angeles is -215 on the moneyline, with San Francisco at +185.

“I think that’s why we’ve gotten a little bit more money on San Fran so far,” said Pileggi. “That could be interesting. The Rams were the ‘it’ team in the offseason, so it’s going to be public money on them. But this game is going to lean more San Francisco because of the travel.”

Rams Build Fearsome Front

The Rams added star edge rusher Myles Garrett in the offseason in a massive trade with the Cleveland Browns, with edge rusher Jared Verse and three draft picks going the other way. Then on Aug. 30, defensive lineman Aaron Donald, one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history, came out of retirement after two years off to join the team, giving the Rams a truly terrifying defensive front.

Donald won’t be in the lineup for the Australia game.

The American Gaming Association (AGA) projects US$29.5 billion in legal NFL sports betting handle for the 2026-27 season. NFL bettors are expected to wager across multiple sportsbooks, Optimove said in a study – 64% of those bettors surveyed are expected to use at least two sportsbooks, while 16% are expected to use three or more.

Sportsbooks heavily favor the Rams to win the Super Bowl.

Raiders Create Major Liability

As for a team bettors overvalue going into the new season, Pileggi said Circa, which takes most of its action in Nevada, always has a big liability on the Las Vegas Raiders.

“That’s where we get the most rec action,” he said. Pileggi added Circa has taken enough bets on the Raiders that the sportsbook could lose roughly US$1 million if the Raiders win the Super Bowl.

“I am not too worried about that,” he said. “I don’t think this is their year.”

For Sunday’s Raiders-Miami Dolphins game at Allegiant Stadium, Circa has the Raiders as 3.5-point favourites at -105, with Miami 3.5-point underdogs at -115. Raiders’ moneyline is -185. Miami’s is +160.

“A popular team players seem to like is the [Denver] Broncos,” said Pileggi. “If Bo Nix didn’t get hurt, they should have been in the Super Bowl against New England. A lot of people like [coach] Sean Payton. They are in a tough division, though. That division is pretty popular in itself, with the [L.A.] Chargers and the [Kansas City] Chiefs, with [quarterback Patrick] Mahomes coming back from injury. That division has been getting a lot of action.”

Broncos Draw Futures Interest

Surprisingly, he added, this is the first year there hasn’t been a major injury in the offseason that has impacted betting lines.

Last year, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow got injured early in the regular season, and he said it really changed things on the Circa front.

The first touchdown market is always the most popular prop. That won’t change this year.

“It’s a quick hit for people,” he said. “They make a bet, and it can be graded in ten minutes. It’s fun.”