Political Bettors Losing Confidence in Donald Trump 2024 Presidential Run

Posted on: May 18, 2021, 10:20h. 

Last updated on: May 18, 2021, 11:59h.

Former President Donald Trump was once considered nearly a sure thing to run in 2024 for a second presidential term. But those odds are lengthening.

Donald Trump 2024 odds political betting
Donald Trump sits in his office at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The former president has yet to confirm whether he will seek a second term in 2024. (Image: Getty)

It was only a month ago that the 45th president of the United States told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he was “beyond seriously” looking at another presidential run. If he indeed does run for the White House, it would be the billionaire and former casino owner’s third attempt at securing the world’s most powerful position. 

Trump ran unsuccessfully in 2000 before shocking the world by taking the Republican Party’s presidential nomination and defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

A little more than four months removed from Washington, however, and political bettors are losing faith that the 74-year-old will try to regain possession of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. 

Odds Weakening

On the political betting exchange PredictIt, the odds for the market regarding Trump’s decision to run in 2024 continue to lengthen.

“Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?” has “yes” shares at just 15 cents. In February, those shares were trading as high as 43 cents. 

With bettors losing confidence in another Trump run, PredictIt last week opened a new market asking if he will file to run before the end of 2022. “Yes,” shares in that market are at 40 cents.

Despite some unease in whether Trump will emerge from his Mar-a-Lago mansion and return to the political arena, he’s still the front-runner for the GOP 2024 ticket. 

Trump’s shares of securing the Republican Party presidential nomination are trading today at 30 cents. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next at 21 cents, and former South Carolina Governor and US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley third at 10 cents.

As for who will take the Oval Office, UK bookies have Vice President Kamala Harris the betting favorite at 7/2. President Joe Biden is next at 4/1, and Trump third at 7/1. 

Political Betting Still Banned

Legal sports betting continues to expand across the country. But no state has yet to permit its oddsmakers to take wagers on the outcomes of political events. PredictIt operates legally through a “no-action” relief letter that it has been issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sportsbooks believe political betting would be big business, and that’s long been proven in the UK, where high street shops have been taking wagers on elections for years. 

The Nevada Gaming Commission forbids betting on the “outcome of any election for any public office both within and outside the State of Nevada.” Nevada, the gold standard of sports betting in the US, has been a regulatory blueprint used by numerous other states as they crafted their sports betting laws.

Proponents of allowing sportsbooks to conduct political betting say not only would it increase revenue and subsequent tax income, but betting markets are also more accurate in predicting elections than polls. 

It’s a long-held theory. Professor David Rothschild at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school wrote in 2009 that odds may be a better indicator of election results than raw polling data.