Political Bettors Buying Shares of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Ousting Following Census Controversy

Posted on: July 6, 2019, 04:00h. 

Last updated on: July 6, 2019, 12:11h.

Political bettors online are buying shares of the possibility that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will be the next cabinet official to depart the president’s administration.

political bettors Wilbur Ross Trump odds
Political bettors believe Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross could soon be shown the door by the president. (Image: Drew Angerer/Getty)

President Donald Trump and Ross are at odds on how to move forward with the 2020 Census following the US Supreme Court’s decision that the questionnaire cannot ask whether the person completing the form is a citizen of the United States.

Recent statements from both the Justice and Commerce departments said the 2020 Census would move forward without the citizenship question. But Trump said that’s all just a bunch of fake news.

The News Reports about the Department of Commerce dropping its quest to put the Citizenship Question on the Census is incorrect or, to state it differently, FAKE! We are absolutely moving forward, as we must, because of the importance of the answer to this question,” the president tweeted this past week.

He later added, “So important for our Country that the very simple and basic ‘Are you a Citizen of the United States?’ question be allowed to be asked in the 2020 Census.”

Bettors Predict Ousting

PredictIt, the online market where bettors can buy and sell shares of political outcomes, are inching closer to believing Ross might be the next official ousted in Trump’s ever-revolving cabinet door.

Ross is one of just seven cabinet members in the Trump administration who has held the job since the president’s election. The others are Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.

PredictIt’s market, “Which of these 13 members of Trump’s Cabinet will leave next?” has Perry remaining the frontrunner at 27 cents. However, Ross shares have greatly increased during the Census controversy from just seven cents on June 24, to more than 20 cents.

If Ross indeed resigns or is fired by Trump, PredictIt bettors who own those shares will be paid $1 each.

Citizenship Question Odds

Trump told reporters before departing the White House for a weekend in New Jersey Friday that he’s considering an executive order for the citizenship question.

It’s one of the ways that we’re thinking about doing it, very seriously,” the president stated.

The Associated Press says an executive order wouldn’t override the Supreme Court’s decision, but could give the president’s lawyers a new claim to continue the legal fight.

PredictIt has a market on the citizenship question outcome. Asking bettors whether the Census Bureau will print the question on the forms by July 31, Yes shares are trading at 15 cents, and No shares the favorite at 85 cents.

In early June, the same market was completely reversed. Yes shares for the question’s inclusion were at nearly 90 cents, and No shares long underdogs. PredictIt users who predicted the federal court legal outcome now stand in a strong position to reap a handsome reward should the president fail to print the inquiry.

The US Constitution requires the Census to be conducted every 10 years. The survey is critical in determining how many seats each state receives in the US House of Representatives, and also aids in determining federal funding allocations.