2028 Presidential Election – The Odds and Frontrunners

The 2028 Presidential Election may seem like a lifetime away, especially with the upcoming November midterms dominating the current news cycle.

However, you can already speculate on who will be the next US President, with this market generating more than $702.6 million in volume on Polymarket at the time of writing.

You can buy and sell contracts on more than 50 candidates, ranging from JD Vance and Gavin Newsom to Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson. You can even secure “Yes” shares in incumbent President Donald Trump for 2.5¢, despite the US Constitution prohibiting him from running for a third term.

But who are the best value picks in this market? Here’s my take on the top contenders and leading trading strategies.

Our exclusive Polymarket bonus code is CORG and will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. If you’re looking for similar options and contracts to trade, check out our list of the best political betting sites.

How to Trade the 2028 Presidential Election Market on Polymarket

The next US Presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, 7th November 2028. The final outcome will be confirmed shortly afterwards, at which point the market will be settled and all contracts resolved.

While we know that Donald Trump is prohibited from running for a third term, it’s almost impossible to accurately predict a winner here. We don’t even know the final Republican or Democrat candidates, with the primaries unlikely to start until January 2028.

Because of this, your trading strategy should be focused on identifying underpriced outcomes and looking to flip your positions at a later date. This will help you to lock in short-term gains without waiting for the market to settle.

There are several contenders who are underpriced at present, particularly on the Democrat side of the aisle. This is despite the Democrats operating in a political climate that’s highly favorable to them at present.

According to traders on Polymarket, the Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the 2028 Presidential Election. There’s also a 50% probability that the party will sweep the Senate and the House in the upcoming midterms.

Josh Shapiro Odds – A Democrat Favorite With a Huge Potential Upside

“Josh Shapiro” | “Yes” at 3.3¢ | 3% Chance

53-year-old Josh Shapiro embodies the current ‘Blue Wave’, as he prepares to retain office as the Governor of Pennsylvania. He’s currently on course to record a dominant victory in the midterms, with current polling projecting that he’ll secure between 50% and 55% of the vote.

Traders on Polymarket afford Shapiro a 97% chance of remaining in office, and a decisive win will enhance his national profile and electability.

Interestingly, it’s Shapiro’s commitment to the Governor race that has caused him to be undervalued in the Presidential market. Because of his decision to keep a narrow focus and avoid touring early primary states like New Hampshire, he doesn’t feature as part of news hype cycles and therefore lacks visibility.

This will change in the wake of a convincing midterm reelection, causing his price to increase significantly prior to the end of 2026. It should also be noted that Shapiro has amassed a $30 million+ war chest, enabling him to construct a national campaign with ease.

Fundamentally, Shapiro spearheads the center left faction of the Democrat Party. This is considered to be more pragmatic and electable than the progressive wing. So, I’d recommend buying “Yes” shares at 3.3¢ while they’re undervalued, before looking to flip these at some point after the midterms.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Odds – A Dominant Contender From the Progressive Left

“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez” | “Yes” at 13.3¢ | 13% Chance

While the center left of the Democrat Party is considered to be the most electable, there are several key contenders within this group. 

Shapiro will face significant competition from Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Andy Beshear, potentially causing votes to be cannibalized during the primaries.

Conversely, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains the de facto leader and standard-bearer of the party’s progressing wing. The U.S. representative for New York’s 14th congressional district has served since 2019 and should have a clear path to a place on the 2028 Democrat primary ballot.

Polymarket traders also afford AOC a 20% chance of being the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2028. Achieving this status or being competitive in the primary would see her odds of winning the US Presidential election soar, far beyond the current benchmark of 13%.

These factors make AOC’s current price of 13.3¢ highly appealing. Consider snapping up “Yes” shares now, and plotting a potential exit point once she secures her primary ballot spot.

Marco Rubio Odds – A Republican Stalwart and Hedge to JD Vance

“Marco Rubio” | “Yes” at 8.6¢ | 9% Chance

On the Republican side, current Vice President JD Vance is the market favorite with a win probability of 25%. However, his price of 24.9¢ offers a lower potential upside, while his electability is tied directly to the performance of the current administration.

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also a key part of the Trump administration, he has a couple of unique advantages. Firstly, his focus on foreign policy affords him significant status and a degree of separation from Trump’s polarizing domestic program. 

Secondly, polling continues to show that Rubio fares better against leading Democrats than Vance. This is based in part on Rubio’s strong appeal to Hispanic voters, who comprise the second-largest voting demographic stateside.

Currently, Rubio has a 20% probability of being the Republican’s Presidential nominee in 2028. The 55-year-old is also the overwhelming favorite to be the party’s Vice President nominee (with a 32% probability), so he’s likely to secure a top primary spot and contend deep into the process.

You can buy “Yes” shares in Rubio to become the next US President for just 8.6¢. Although I don’t expect him to win the race, this price has the potential to more than double closer to the primaries, creating a viable exit point. With a win probability of 9%, Rubio also represents a positive EV pick.

Ron DeSantis Odds – A Forgotten Contender With a Strong MAGA Following

“Ron DeSantis” | “Yes” at 2.4¢ | 2% Chance

Ron DeSantis is something of an afterthought in this market. This is due in part to his underwhelming Republican primary campaign in 2024, which saw him accrue just 1.59% of the popular vote.

However, DeSantis retains a hugely loyal conservative base and MAGA following, especially following his decision to endorse Trump in 2024 after his own campaign failed. He also raised significant funds for the GOP ticket, while signing legislation that helped protect the Republicans’ House majority.

The Florida governor retains a 57% approval rating among his subjects, which is 9% higher than Trump (48%). He will also be constitutionally compelled to leave the Florida hotseat in January 2027 due to term limits, so he’ll have the necessary time and support to launch a national campaign for 2028.

At just 47 years old, DeSantis is also one of the younger Republican contenders. This, combined with his strong ideological base and proven policy record, can make him a key contender if he runs. So, a current price of just 2.4¢ offers significant value.

The Last Word – Trading an Unpredictable and Long-Term Market

Even if you believe you can pick a winner in this market, this can make for a questionable trading strategy.

Firstly, the size of the field and lack of actionable data makes accurate forecasting incredibly difficult at this time. What’s more, the market won’t settle until after 7th November 2028, so you’d be required to tie up your capital for a prolonged period of time.

Instead, I’d recommend snapping up “Yes” shares in underpriced contenders, such as Josh Shapiro or Marco Rubio. 

You can then identify profitable exit points prior to settlement, while accounting for fluctuating demand and low liquidity traps. This lets you retain far greater control over your capital in real-time.

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