Time Person of the Year Odds & Prediction Markets

The Time Person of the Year remains a prestigious award. This is despite many deeming it a popularity contest and accusing it of political bias. 

Winners over recent years include Elon Musk, Volodymyr Zelensky, Taylor Swift, and President Donald Trump. This eclectic group shows just how hard it is to pick a winner here.

Polymarket’s latest odds feature entrepreneurs, politicians, musicians, NASA astronauts, and even the Head of the Catholic Church. However, only three contenders currently have a double-digit win probability, including frontrunner Zohran Mamdani.

But which of the 20+ candidates offer the best value? I’ll analyze the latest odds and prices below, while highlighting some of the most effective strategies.

We have an exclusive Polymarket bonus (CORG), and you can earn $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. If you want to explore similar options and outcomes, we’ve covered the top entertainment and culture prediction markets.

What Do The Odds Tell Us?

Polymarket introduced this market back in May, with Bad Bunny, Dario Amodei, and Donald Trump dominating the early trading volumes.

However, it’s New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani who currently leads the way with a 31% win probability.  This is more than double that of second favorite Pope Leo XIV (15%), while Trump retains a 10% chance of landing the award.

US President Trump’s backing has waned of late, with the 2024 winner having seen his probability fall from 39% on July 16th. This trend coincided with Trump ordering a fresh wave of military strikes on Iran.

Trump is one of several former winners and runners-up in contention. Elon Musk and Benjamin Netanyahu both have a 7% chance of winning again, while Taylor Swift’s probability has slumped to just 4%.

Zohran Mamdani Odds – A Clear Frontrunner – But Does he Have an Upside?

“Zohran Mamdani” | “Yes” at 31¢ | 31% Chance

Frontrunner Mamdani has enjoyed an explosive political rise through 2026, after assuming office as the Mayor of New York on January 1st. In addition to being the city’s first ever Muslim mayor, Mamdani has emerged as a spearhead for the American progressive movement.

A romanticized and heroic figure to some, he swept to power in New York by appealing to marginalized and low-income demographics. He also won an election with the highest turnout in NYC since 1969.

Mamdani has been a constant feature of the news cycle since his election last November, too. This year alone, he has threatened to have Benjamin Netanyahu arrested if he visits New York, while continuing to fight for the employment rights of local delivery drivers.

These factors all count in Mamdani’s favor and make him a justified favorite in the market. A current “Yes” price of 31¢ also offers value if you believe that Mamdani will win and are willing to hold until settlement, but this introduces a much higher level of risk and lower liquidity.

However, this price is unlikely to rise much higher in the final weeks before settlement around early or mid-December. So, if you want to trade flexibly and target short-term gains, there may be better value options in the market.

Pope Leo XIV Odds – An Undervalued Contender With a Global Presence

“Pope Leo XIV” | “Yes” at 15¢ | 15% Chance

When former Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost became the 267th Pontiff last year, he broke new ground as the first-ever American pope. 

He has remained a central presence in global news cycles, too, using his platform to challenge US President Trump and his administration’s hardline immigration policies. He has also implored other global leaders in the Western world to address systemic causes of poverty, economic instability, and conflict.

It’s also interesting to note that Time Magazine has a peculiar fascination with historic Papal transitions. Three previous popes have won the Person of The Year award, including John XXIII (1962), John Paul II (1994), and Pope Francis (2013).

Given Pope Leo XIV’s bold public speaking and historic election, it’s little wonder that he’s currently the second favorite with a win probability of 15%.

But does he offer value at a price of 15¢? Although this has traded within a narrow range of between 10¢ and 16¢ since peaking previously at 43¢, he retains a high-impact global presence and isn’t afraid to capture headlines. Pope Leo may also benefit from further public statements or proposed church reforms, which could send his price significantly higher in the autumn.

Donald Trump Odds – A Former Winner Who’s Never Out of the News

“Donald Trump” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 10% Chance

Trump has won the Time Person of the Year award twice, having prevailed in 2016 and 2024. Another victory here would see the US President become just the second person to win on three occasions, after Franklin Roosevelt.

The 80-year-old is certainly unmatched when it comes to dominating global news cycles and courting controversy. This earmarks him as a leading contender for the prize, as Time editors base their decision on who has been the most influential on the year’s news and events “for better or worse”.

So, although his win probability had declined from 39% to just 10% at the time of writing, this is largely driven by public sentiment in the wake of the Iran war. Although editors will consider this opinion when they conduct their Readers’ Poll, it won’t have a direct impact on their final selection.

Because of this and Trump’s penchant for dominating global headlines, he continues to offer considerable value at a price of just 11¢. This certainly has the potential to spike in the autumn, as the Iran war continues and the midterm elections are decided.

So, consider buying “Yes” shares in Trump now before looking at an exit point between 20¢ and 25¢ or beyond. Just note that if you intend to sell your position prior to settlement, you’ll have to do so before the end of November to avoid a liquidity trap.

Elon Musk Odds – An Outsider Who Struggles to Dominate the Headlines

“Elon Musk” | “Yes” at 8¢ | 7% Chance

Musk is another former winner of the award, after being crowned Time Person of the Year in 2021. His win probability for this year peaked as high as 22% back in June, when he became the world’s first trillionaire after SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

His price and probability has declined gradually since, however, settling at 8¢ at the time of writing. He has just a 7% chance of winning the award in 2026, following a relative lack of exposure and the subsequent decline of the SpaceX share price.

Ultimately, Musk lacks the ability of his rivals to regularly dominate news cycles. He’s certainly less likely to be the source of dramatic and unexpected news events, or have a significant impact on life outside of his fields of expertise.

So, although the current price may be tempting and hint at a sizable upside, I don’t see it increasing much higher prior to settlement. Musk is also a rank outsider to win, so I’d avoid buying “Yes” or “No” shares on the entrepreneur triumphing.

The Last Word – How Will the Time Person of the Year Market Resolve?

Contracts will only resolve to “Yes” in this market if a listed person, group, or entity is named TIME Person of The Year 2026. Should multiple people be named, they will all be considered the winner. 

A final decision is expected to be made in early or mid-December. The eventual victor will be decided by Time Magazine editors, although public opinion will  be gauged via a Readers’ Poll prior to deliberation.

When trading outcomes in this market, it’s incredibly hard to accurately predict the actual winner. So, I’d recommend targeting underpriced contracts and looking to sell these for a profit, allowing plenty of time to avoid low liquidity traps in late November or early December.

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